With NFL free agency and the draft behind us, the offseason is finally here. But that doesn't mean there aren't bets to made and value to bet found before training camp.
Caesars Sportsbook has updated its 2019 divisional odds, and while I agree with seven of their eight favorites, there are several underdogs worth considering at their current odds.
Note: Odds current as of June 17.
1. Los Angeles Chargers (+165)
Caesars unsurprisingly favors the incumbent AFC West champion Chiefs (-125) here, but it's tough for me to get behind them for a variety of reasons. For starters, league history suggests Kansas City's 2018 offensive production (66 touchdowns) is unsustainable. Consider that of the four offenses that scored 60-plus touchdowns in a season, all suffered a large dropoff the next season.
As if that wasn't bad enough, the Chiefs released star RB Kareem Hunt, could be missing star WR Tyreek Hill and moved on from three of their most productive defenders in Justin Houston, Dee Ford and Eric Berry. Yes, Tyrann Mathieu and Frank Clark were added, but it's hard to make a case that they improved a defense that ranked sixth-worst in touchdowns allowed and second-worst in yardage allowed. Add in the league's ninth-toughest schedule and Kansas City's prospects look much dimmer.
The Chargers, meanwhile, matched Kansas City with a 12-4 record last season and will enjoy the division's easiest schedule in 2019. They're a bit weak in the trenches but are one of the league's best teams from top to bottom, especially after adding Thomas Davis, Nasir Adderley and Jerry Tillery at need positions. It's tough to bet against Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes, but Los Angeles is the best team in the division.
2. Houston Texans (3-1)
Houston won the AFC South last season despite an 0-3 start, but the Colts have better odds at -125. The odds make sense following an offseason in which the Colts got a bit better on paper (including the addition of Justin Houston) and the Texans slightly worse (including the loss of Tyrann Mathieu, Kareem Jackson and Andre Hal). That said, Houston still has the pieces in place to make a run at a repeat title. QB Deshaun Watson is entering his third pro season, the league's best edge-rushing trio in J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney and Whitney Mercilus remains in place, and the team's Achilles' Heel (offensive line) will be better with Matt Kalil, Tytus Howard, Max Scharping and a healthy Seantrel Henderson in the fold. The Colts should be the favorite, but its close enough that Houston is a good bet at +300.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (+185)
All eyes are on the much-improved -- and AFC North favorite -- Browns (EVEN), but the demise of the Steelers has been greatly exaggerated. As I noted in my pre-draft win total projections, Pittsburgh has won eight or more games every season since Ben Roethlisberger was drafted in 2004. And that includes more than nine wins in 10 of 15 seasons. Antonio Brown may be gone, but Roethlisberger, James Conner, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Vance McDonald and a terrific offensive line remain in place on a team that set a franchise record for touchdowns last season. The Browns are probably the better team on paper right now, but they are far from perfect, with weak spots at linebacker, safety and along the offensive line. There are enough question marks in Cleveland and enough good players in Pittsburgh that the Steelers are well worth the bet at the current odds.
4. Dallas Cowboys (+140)
There hasn't been a repeat NFC East champion since the Eagles (-115) back in 2004, but the Cowboys could certainly break that streak in 2019. Dallas has won at least nine games each of the past three seasons and four of the past five. That includes a 10-win 2018 campaign in which they advanced to the divisional round of the playoffs. The Cowboys' offseason has been rather inconsequential, but the team is arguably better on paper with the likes of David Irving and Cole Beasley departing and Robert Quinn, Randall Cobb and Jason Witten joining the club. Stud center Travis Frederick is also expected back after missing all of 2018 with an illness, which will help fill out a terrific offensive line. The loaded Eagles are the appropriate favorite in the NFC East, but it's close enough that Dallas is worth a look.
5. The NFC North: Green Bay Packers (2-1), Minnesota Vikings (2-1), Detroit Lions (+850)
Yes, all of them. I agree with Caesars that the Bears (+175) should be the slight favorite, but I also have all four NFL North teams as having average-or-better rosters on paper.
The Aaron Rodgers-led Packers are the most likely team to overtake Chicago after a strong offseason that included a revamping of the pass rush (Za'Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Rashan Gary) and safety position (Adrian Amos, Darnell Savage Jr.). Add that to a cornerback room loaded with youth and pedigree and a healthy interior line and the Packers' defense could take a big leap forward.
The Vikings are a shakier bet than Green Bay, especially after an offseason in which they got a bit worse on paper, losing the likes of Sheldon Richardson and Andrew Sendejo while making no high-impact additions outside the draft. That's not ideal for a team coming off an 8-7-1 season, though perhaps the offense will be improved in Kirk Cousins' second season in Minnesota. Nonetheless, the Vikings have a solid quarterback and a top-10 defense on paper, which keeps them in the mix.
Finally, we have our biggest long shot in Detroit. Nearly every year, there is a team that goes from worst to first in its division. In 2019, the aforementioned competitiveness of the NFC North could allow the Lions to be the team that makes the surprising leap. Detroit made some significant offseason improvements, adding Trey Flowers to a stagnant pass rush, Justin Coleman and Rashaan Melvin to a weak cornerback group behind Darius Slay and T.J. Hockenson, and Jesse James to a tight end room that had been a non-factor. Detroit has a solid quarterback in Matthew Stafford and come in around league average in both offensive and defensive talent on paper. That's enough to keep them competitive and makes them an intriguing bet.