The 2019 NBA playoffs are nearing its conclusion, but there are still plenty of betting opportunities. Our experts -- Joe Fortenbaugh, Preston Johnson, Doug Kezirian and Jordan Schultz -- are here to give their best bets for every game of the NBA Finals. The Toronto Raptors lead the Golden State Warriors 3-2 in the best-of-seven series.
All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Thursday's Game 6
Toronto Raptors (+125) at Golden State Warriors (-145)
Game 6 line: Warriors -2.5
Game 6 over/under: 211
Fortenbaugh: The pro-Golden State narratives such as, "Win it for KD" and "It's the final game in the history of Oracle Arena" make for great conversation, but I prefer to traffic in data over emotion. Speaking of which, here's some data for those of you considering a Game 6 wager: Toronto is 2-0 straight up and against the spread in Oakland this series with a plus-27 scoring differential.
Let's take it one step further. In Game 5, the Warriors made a ridiculous 20 3-pointers on an absurd 47.6 percent shooting percentage from deep. Conversely, the Raptors knocked down just eight 3-pointers while shooting an abysmal 25 percent from long range. Neither performance is sustainable, in my opinion, which is the primary reason why I see Toronto finishing the job in Oakland on Thursday night.
Pick: Raptors +3
Kezirian: While we know the unfortunate status of Kevin Durant, we still have an unknown with Kevon Looney. If he is unable to play, the Raptors sure feel like the right side. They are deeper and have demonstrated more consistency throughout this entire series. I realize there could be a residual effect from blowing a late six-point lead and being that close to a championship. However, Toronto has maintained its poise during the playoffs and I do not suspect it will crumble. I am more concerned about the Splash Brothers unleashing a barrage of 3-pointers, much like we saw in Game 6 against the Rockets. That threat always exists though.
As for the total, I am going to look at the under. I personally feel the Warriors have erred by pushing the pace too frequently. I think without Durant they should be be more measured and turn this into a half-court game once an open shot from Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson does not present itself initially in transition.
Pick: Lean Raptors and under
Schultz: We have actually been on the Stephen Curry over each of the past two games. Pick-and-roll is the offensive key for the Warriors in Game 6. Steve Kerr doesn't traditionally run a ton of it, and yet the Warriors ranked second in the league with their pick-and-roll efficiency. Without Kevin Durant, Kerr has to find a way to get Curry in space. Running spread pick-and-rolls and allowing Curry to start his dribble near half-court will help with spacing -- and will allow Draymond Green to make plays as the roller. Curry has to have 35-plus points for Golden State to force a Game 7. With an onslaught of pick-and-rolls, including using Klay Thompson as the slip man, expect nothing less from No. 30.
Pick: Curry over 32.5 points
Johnson: While it's easy to get caught up in the narratives when predicting outcomes of sporting events, it can be one of the single biggest return on investment killers. This Game 6 is loaded with them. How can the Warriors lose all three games at home in the NBA Finals? How do they lose the last game ever played in Oracle? They are definitely winning this one for Kevin Durant after he ruptured his Achilles, right? While these types of angles tell a nice story, they aren't typically predictive of future results.
For me, this comes down to the fact that the Raptors have been the better team outside of a few stretches where they shot abnormally cold from 3-point range. In Game 2, Toronto made just 29 percent of its 3-pointers and still almost came from behind before losing by five points. In the first half of Game 4 in Oakland, Toronto shot 12 percent from 3 and was down just four points at the break. After the 3s started falling in the second half, the Raptors ran away with the game. In Game 5, Toronto shot 25 percent from long range to Golden State's 48 percent and lost the game by a single point. If the bad 3-point variance can swing to somewhere around average expectation for the Raptors in Game 6, they will be the NBA champions.
Kevon Looney reinjuring his collar bone in Monday's game is also significant. If he's confirmed out for Game 6, my like for the Raptors becomes a love. Give me all of the DeMarcus Cousins and Jonas Jerebko minutes I can get as a Toronto backer. The Raptors exploited Cousins mercilessly in the fourth quarter Monday, getting switching actions onto Kyle Lowry that resulted in multiple drives for easy layups. They won't wait as long this time around to take advantage. Congratulations, Canada.
Pick: Raptors +3
NBA Finals series picks
Johnson: While it was gratifying to see Toronto ultimately come through and win the Eastern Conference, there was an obvious reason that I was betting the Raptors to win only the East and not the NBA championship. I probably won't be betting against the Warriors until the year 2030 at this rate. Even if Kevin Durant were to miss the entire series, my true price is the Warriors as a -285 favorite (74.0 percent implied win probability). I didn't want anything to do with needing an upset win in the NBA Finals, and I similarly wouldn't want to bother betting against Golden State at this point, either.
Laying -300 when I make the line -285 is a wager with negative expected value, so that isn't in the cards. So where do I see value?
Steph Curry to win the Finals MVP award at -125 sticks out. I considered making a case for Draymond Green at +600 since he will likely be a distributor on offense, tallying triple-double type numbers as well as contributing to slowing Kawhi Leonard down defensively. However, I'd be genuinely surprised if it doesn't go to Curry if the Warriors win it all. In theory, it's a cheaper version of betting the Warriors to win it all. I don't anticipate we see Durant returning (or at least not soon enough to be in the conversation for Finals MVP), and Klay Thompson would have to go supernova all series long. People already have forgotten that Curry just averaged 36.5 points/8.3 rebounds/7.3 assists in the Western Conference finals. He's on a mission, and if you like Golden State to win the series anyway, then I think Curry at -140 is the best option available.
Kezirian: In my eyes, the Warriors (at full strength) are the greatest team in NBA history. However, with so much unknown surrounding Durant's calf injury, I am having a hard time determining just how much I want to hammer the champs. Even if Durant does not play, I think the price is cheap. Golden State has lost one playoff series in the past five years. I understand the allure of an underdog, but I also have seen plenty of underdog tickets in the trash. To me, this just feels like all those bettors who tried to find value fading Floyd Mayweather during his prime run.
By now we know the stat: Golden State is 31-1 in its past 32 games (21-7-4 ATS) when Curry plays but Durant does not. The Warriors are the better team in this matchup, although I would prefer a healthy Durant. The Raptors are a strong defensive team, but Golden State will warrant a much different strategy than Giannis Antetokounmpo and Milwaukee did. I imagine the Dubs will initially focus on Marc Gasol and force him into switches, much like the Warriors did with Enes Kanter in the Western Conference finals. If double-teams come to Curry and Thompson, then Green becomes the facilitator and attacks from the free throw line. If the Raptors implement a more athletic lineup without Gasol, then they must switch all picks and stay attached to the Splash Brothers. That is much easier said than done.
Kawhi Leonard is an absolute beast, but the Raptors rely so heavily on him that they become too one-dimensional on offense. The Raptors just cannot afford scoring droughts, and I anticipate too many to overcome. Additionally, I do not see Golden State losing at home, so this series is essentially over if (when) the Warriors win one of the first two games.
Pick: Golden State -300
Fortenbaugh: This series opened Saturday night priced at Golden State -275/Toronto +225 before some significant Warriors action forced a lightning-quick adjustment to Golden State -300/Toronto +250, and for good reason, as the defending champs are unequivocally the best road team in the business. Under head coach Steve Kerr over the past five postseasons, Golden State has recorded 30 road victories -- the most in a five-year span in NBA playoff history -- as well as at least one road win in 22 consecutive postseason series.
Additionally, Curry & Co. concluded the 2018-19 regular season ranked tied for first in the NBA in road wins (27), first in offensive rating when playing on the road (115.1), first in net rating when playing on the road (plus-6.4), first in effective field-goal percentage on the road (56.4 percent) and first in true shooting percentage on the road (59.5 percent).
My initial thought was to pass on the series now but get involved at a reduced price in the event the Warriors lost Game 1. But then I remembered the fact that Golden State is a sensational 18-1 in Game 1s of a playoff series under Kerr, so the current price of -300 is only going to climb following a Dubs win in Game 1. In that event, I might as well beat the move.
Pick: Golden State -300
Schultz: Fatigue has to play a factor at some point, right? Kawhi Leonard has played 100 minutes more than Stephen Curry in the playoffs and 66 more than anyone else on the Warriors. And Leonard will not be tasked only with scoring in the NBA Finals, but he will have to defend Curry as well -- and Klay Thompson at times. This is concerning, especially given the Splash Brothers' relentless off-ball movement. In fact, Curry and Thompson rank eighth and second, respectively, in total mileage per game in the playoffs. The amount of screens they draw both on and off the ball means Leonard will have to do more running than he did against the Bucks. To be sure, Giannis Antetokounmpo posed a unique threat, but he is more predictable to guard, both in terms of shot selection and catch location (generally top of key or left side). The Warriors don't have home-court advantage in this series, but they are the No. 1 offensive efficiency team in basketball on the road.
Pick: Warriors in 6