It's Sunday night and I'm sitting at the In-N-Out in Carlsbad, Calif. (taking my kids to Legoland to celebrate my favorite baseball team, the Los Angeles Dodgers, losing in a second straight World Series). There is a woman in a David Ortiz jersey that keeps looking my way with a grin on her face and pointing to her Boston Red Sox hat. Can you at least give me a night here while I drown my sorrows in a double-double (animal style with chopped chilis) and a Dr Pepper?
More important, I'm trying to figure out if anything of significance even happened today in the NFL. This week, 10 favorites won games, and the three underdogs that pulled off upsets were all getting three points or less.
The Packers gave the Rams a run for their money and had a shot to hand the best team in Los Angeles (and the world) their first loss of the season. This didn't come as too much of a surprise, though, as I wrote last week that I projected the line in this game at under a touchdown. The +9.5s all week ultimately moved to +7.5s before kickoff, which is a pretty good indicator of the right side, even if the final score doesn't always show it. It worked in this case thanks to Todd Gurley.
Doug Kezirian explains how Todd Gurley's decision not to score a touchdown late in the Rams' win over the Packers affected sports bettors.
Adam Vinatieri became the NFL's all-time leading scorer, which is a pretty cool feat. Vinatieri obviously won't get the recognition that Drew Brees received a few weeks back when he set the passing yards record, so consider this my personal shoutout to Adam. I once had a few friends bet me that I couldn't make 20 out of 50 field goal attempts from 30 yards with one month to practice. I had never attempted to kick a football in my life. It's harder than it looks, even if they practice the same thing over and over every day for the majority of their lives. Trust me, I was the first to yell at kickers through my television screen for missing kicks and costing me covers seemingly every weekend. I try to do this less now. (I won the bet, if you were wondering.)
We learned that the Jaguars and Raiders are, in fact, both in complete disarray, but we've suspected this for some time now. And Week 8 reminded us that sometimes the unexpected doesn't actually happen. When it comes to analyzing and betting these games, however, the data from these mundane slates of games is still useful (even if it kills the media narratives).
Let's dive into some of the other details that stuck out to me from Week 8 -- and we'll look at how we can apply them to our betting process for Week 9.
As we reach the halfway point of the season, there are some clear trends emerging that are worth paying attention to. Context is key, and any given line can be imbalanced in either direction, but the state of certain teams in particular is worth keeping a close eye on.
Buy: Houston Texans
I didn't want to risk
Houston's defense has quietly crept up to the league's third best in opponent yards per play allowed. It ranks in the top five against both the rush and the pass, so there isn't a weakness that particular teams can attack and expect to have a big advantage. The offense still has a ways to go before I would consider the Texans a legitimate contender in the AFC, but they are definitely the favorite to win the South division now that the Jaguars have fallen off -- and they hold more than a one-game lead over the Titans as well (and still get Tennessee at home later this year).
I didn't understand the sharp action on the Dolphins Thursday night in Houston, and I don't agree with the early move on Denver today. The market seems to disagree for the time being, so I am hoping we get opportunities in the near future to take advantage. If the line in Week 9 in Denver gets to +3.5, I'll be buying.
I don't have a team to sell in Week 9. It wouldn't be appropriate to sell the Jaguars every week for the rest of the season, and it wouldn't be fair to the seven fans in Jacksonville. The bad teams are generally losing, and the good teams are winning. When I find something of note from an unexpected team that I think is worth selling, I'll be the first to break down. But I have nothing for now.
Early line moves: Week 9
Move I agree with: My love affair with the Atlanta Falcons is well-known by now. They opened +2.5 in Washington for Week 9 but were quickly bet down to +1.5. My numbers make the Falcons a one-point favorite on the road against the Redskins, so after the swift move, at this point I will be looking to use Atlanta only in a two-team, six-point teaser at -110 if I find a second leg that offers value this week as well (perhaps Chargers +7.5?).
Move I disagree with: My number in the Texans-Broncos game is Denver -1.2. When Denver opened at -1, I wouldn't have anticipated much of a line move in either direction this week. The Texans at +3 now have my attention, and at +3.5 they will certainly be getting my money. Houston ranks third defensively in the NFL, while Denver ranks 19th. I wrote about this a few weeks back, but I still think there is a misconception that the Broncos have an elite defense. They used to. Offensively Denver is slightly more efficient, but overall, on a neutral field, I would make the Texans the favorite here. I'll be keeping an eye on the line throughout the week.
Behind the box score: Understanding the whole story
Team A: 6.6 yards per play, 0 turnovers, 28 points
Team B: 5.9 yards per play, 3 turnovers, 14 points
I mentioned in the Best Bets article last week with Warren Sharp that I had prepared to do "buy/sell" and futures analysis on the Detroit Lions in Week 9 if they beat Seattle. They did not. For those accustomed to reading this section of the column, this particular box score isn't that drastic. In the past, we have seen teams doubling their opponents in yards per play but losing those games outright. Seattle was the better team in Week 8, but they weren't 14 points better. The dagger for Detroit was the three turnovers -- two of which happened in the end zone.
I wouldn't immediately give up hope on Detroit, however. The Seahawks used their bye week to prepare for a Lions squad that had won three of its last four (Patriots, Packers, Dolphins), with the lone loss coming to the Cowboys in Dallas by two at the buzzer. Until today, Matthew Stafford seemed as though he finally had a rushing attack at his disposal. They still rank top-10 in the league rushing the ball and in overall offensive efficiency. My recommendation is not to react to an extreme for either team. The Seahawks were in a pretty nice spot and I certainly wouldn't consider them "back" after a single-game result. The Lions, I believe, could still be an under-the-radar team to look to back against the spread, especially when they match up against opponents that struggle to defend the run.
Slate standout: Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints
Rams offense: 6.7 yards per play (4th), 4.8 yards per rush (5th), 9.2 yards per pass (1st)
Saints offense: 6.1 yards per play (8th), 3.9 yards per rush (26th), 8 yards per pass (6th)
Rams defense: 5.8 yards per play (20th), 4.8 yards per rush (28th), 6.9 per pass (12th)
Saints defense: 6.1 yards per play (25th), 3.2 yards per rush (1st), 8.3 per pass (29th)
This matchup is intriguing outside of the obvious storylines about a potential NFC Championship preview and home field advantage possibly being on the line. The Rams lead the league with 150.9 rushing yards per game behind what could wind up being a historic season for Todd Gurley. They rank only fifth in yards per rush, but they wear defenses down by continually feeding Gurley in the fourth quarter. It's no coincidence that the Rams' defense ranks No. 1 in the NFL in opponent points per fourth quarter (2.9). The next closest team is Baltimore, which gives up four points per fourth quarter. Gurley is one of the Rams' best defensive weapons.
On the opposite side of that equation, the Saints rank No. 1 by a considerable margin in opponent yards per rush attempt. What is going to give here? Is Sean McVay going to force-feed Gurley because "that's what we do," or is he going to attack a pass defense that ranks 29th in the NFL? The Rams are gaining 9.2 yards per pass attempt to this point in the season against better pass defenses. That's the best in the NFL this season, and it's also the best number that exists in the data I have dating back to 2003. It's no secret that Gurley and the running game set up Jared Goff's dynamic attack through the air, but it's elite regardless.
My money is on McVay figuring out the best way to use his weapons and beat a Saints defense that has a glaring weakness. My projection for the game makes the Rams -1.3 on the road in this matchup, so at +1.5 it isn't a remarkable edge in the numbers. I do, however, think that there is a significant coaching mismatch that lines up effectively for Los Angeles. I won't buy in to the fact that the Rams were looking ahead to this Week 9 game in New Orleans and thus struggled against Green Bay. But I would anticipate max effort and focus out of the players and coaches after the scare.
I'm in no rush to bet this right now after the Saints took the early money Monday morning, but I will end up having money on the Rams one way or another come Sunday. Look out for an official pick in our "Best Bets" piece this Friday.