The Brewers have the likely NL MVP in their lineup. The Brewers swept their NLDS series, while the Dodgers ceded a win to the Atlanta Braves. Milwaukee won 96 games to L.A.'s 91 during the regular season. Framed this way, one could see the Brewers as the potential favorite here. When you
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Series odds: Dodgers: -160; Brewers: +140
Game 1 odds: Dodgers (Clayton Kershaw) -155 at Milwaukee Brewers (Jhoulys Chacin) +145
Game 1 over/under: 7 (O -120/U EVEN)
While many advanced projection systems saw Milwaukee as an underdog to make it to the playoffs at the trade deadline, the Brewers themselves thought it wise to set themselves up for a potentially deep run into the postseason by adding Mike Moustakas, Jonathan Schoop and Gio Gonzalez. It's worked out well to this point, but the math still says the Dodgers are the clear favorite in this series.
Digging a bit deeper into the regular-season numbers, we see that despite losing five more games than the Brew Crew, the Dodgers scored more runs and allowed fewer runs. According to Baseball Prospectus, the Dodgers were a full 10 wins better than the Brewers when judged by their run differential instead of their actual win/loss record, which can be influenced by the level of opposing competition and favorable sequencing of events, among other things.
The Dodgers, plain and simple, are just the better team. Their largest edge comes on the pitching side. In my breakdown of their NLDS series, I wrote: "They have enough pitching to fill two literal rotations that would be better than most teams in the league. Caleb Ferguson made three starts all year and is better than every pitcher on the Braves except Game 1 starter Mike Foltynewicz. That should tell you something about the quality of what LA is actually rolling out compared to Atlanta." This same exact thing is true when it comes to the Brewers, except that it's true for literally all of their pitchers. Their ace is Jhoulys Chacin, a mere above-average pitcher in the most favorable light.
Now granted, Milwaukee has the best reliever in the National League (Josh Hader) and the best bullpen, which manager Craig Counsell has shown he can leverage well. He doesn't let his starters go super deep into games ("ace" Chacin averaged just 86 pitches per start this year), and in the NLDS they even showed a willingness to play a full bullpen game. If they're to stand any chance against L.A., they'll need to work in at least two of those games. If fatigue weren't an issue, they'd actually be far better off using as many bullpen games as possible, given that their bullpen is more than a half-run of ERA better than even their top starters.
Even then, though, that may not be enough, as Dave Roberts is excellent at leveraging his own bullpen -- one that isn't quite at the same talent level but isn't too far behind. Roberts is very much aware of the third-time-through-the-order penalty, and he isn't afraid to pull his starters early to take advantage of this or a high-leverage pinch-hitting situation. Pairing this with a rotation of elite pitchers can be a deadly combination.
On the offensive side, the two teams are more comparable, but as I mentioned earlier, the Dodgers scored more runs than the Brewers during the regular season and they did it while playing their home games in much less favorable park. Milwaukee's offense is great, but Yelich has almost certainly been playing over his head since the All-Star Break and there are definite holes in this lineup -- namely at catcher and shortstop. The Dodgers are a complete lineup with a legitimately good hitter at every position. David Freese isn't ideal at first base against lefties, but that's the lone weak link.
My projection system has the Dodgers projected as a favorite in every game of this series (with the exception of a potential Milwaukee bullpen game, depending on who winds up starting for L.A. that day). Vegas implies a 61.5 percent chance of L.A. winning the series, which is a bit low given this information. I'd bet on L.A. for the series, but Game 1 (as has often been the case this postseason) has been handicapped very well. There actually may be a slight advantage to betting Milwaukee, but it truly is a very minimal edge. During the regular season, with more games to pick from, it would be easy to ignore.
Pick: Dodgers -160 for the series. Very small edge on Brewers +145 in Game 1.