Week 6 is an interesting week to look for upsets. It's rare to have a week with this many home underdogs, including six lines of three or more points, yet the most interesting underdog is still a team on the road.
There aren't many opportunities in the NFL to bet on a 5-0 team as an underdog, but when it comes to the game between Kansas City and New England, the Patriots mystique has done more to determine this line than how well the two teams have played in 2018.
Upset watch: Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3.5)
The New England Patriots climbed back into the DVOA top 10 with their Week 5 win over Indianapolis, but there's still a significant gap between the No. 9 Patriots and the undefeated No. 3 Chiefs. New England has been the more balanced team in 2018, but both teams are offense first, defense second. But it's a difference between a Patriots offense that has been inconsistent and a Chiefs offense that has been otherworldly. The Chiefs rank second in offensive DVOA, behind the Rams, with one of the 20 best offenses we've ever recorded through five weeks of a season. But on defense, they're just 28th. The Patriots rank fifth on offense so far this year, and 19th on defense.
Most importantly, the Chiefs' stellar offense can neutralize what the Patriots do best on defense. Conventional wisdom states that the Patriots have a poor pass rush. ESPN Stats & Information charting strongly disagrees. Through five games, the Patriots rank second in the NFL with a defensive pressure rate of 35.2 percent, trailing only the Los Angeles Rams.
Now, the Chiefs give up a lot of pressure. They allow a pressure rate of 32.8 percent, which ranks 26th. But this is where Mahomes' ability to improvise and make plays outside the pocket is so important. Mahomes this year has a 92.8 QBR when under duress, one of the top figures in the league. And so far this year, Patriots have actually allowed a higher QBR to quarterbacks under duress (68.1) than to quarterbacks without duress (51.4).
With his ability to make big plays under duress, Mahomes can take advantage of New England's difficulty getting off the field on third down. The Chiefs rank third in offensive DVOA on third downs, while the Patriots defense ranks just 29th.
On defense, the Chiefs may be able to contain Julian Edelman in just his second game back from his early-season suspension. Though his early charting numbers in 2018 are not quite as good as last year, Kendall Fuller was one of the league's top slot cornerbacks in 2017.
But the biggest question for the Chiefs' defense is whether it can do anything to stop the Patriots' running back tandem of Sony Michel and James White. Kansas City is dead last in run defense, based on either DVOA or yards per carry (an average of 5.77).
You can run on the Chiefs pretty much everywhere, but opponents prefer to go straight up the middle. A league-leading 69 percent of runs against the Chiefs are listed in the play-by-play as going up the middle or behind one of the guards. The Patriots rank fourth in the league in adjusted line yards on runs up the middle -- and dead last in the percentage of runs stopped for a loss or no gain.
The Chiefs are also extremely poor covering running backs in the passing game. They allow a league-high 90.1 yards per game in running back receptions (adjusted for opponent) and rank 28th in DVOA on these plays. The Chiefs will have to come up with a solution to this problem if they want to slow down the Patriots' offense. One good trend for the Kansas City defense is that they stiffen up when opponents get closer to scoring, and I'm not just talking about the red zone. When opponents are on their own side of the 50, Kansas City's defense is 35.8 percent less efficient than average, last in the NFL. But when opponents are on the Kansas City side of the 50, the Chiefs' defense improves to 10th in the NFL, 5.9 percent more efficient than average.
Special teams is one other place where Kansas City gains an advantage. The Chiefs rank No. 1 in DVOA while the usually consistent Patriots rank just 15th. Tyreek Hill is one of the most dangerous punt returners in the league, while punter Dustin Colquitt leads the NFL with a net average of 47.8 yards. The Chiefs also rank third in our metric for net kickoff value. These small advantages add up to a general field-position advantage that should force the Patriots' offense to gain more yardage to score while starting Kansas City drives closer to the goal line.
Cover watch: Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-10)
Tougher opponent, larger line, but otherwise many of the things I wrote about Arizona in last week's Upset Watch still apply. Josh Rosen has been a definitive improvement on Sam Bradford at the quarterback position; Arizona's offensive DVOA for the season ranks 31st in the NFL, but if we included only the past two weeks quarterbacked by Rosen, they would be tied for 17th. And Arizona's defense is still better than most fans realize, moving up from 11th to eighth in defensive DVOA after beating San Francisco last week.
As for Minnesota, we're left with a typical early-season conundrum. Are the Vikings the Super Bowl contender we thought they were before the season, or are they the mediocre team they've been so far in 2018? Even with a 2-2-1 record, Minnesota is only 24th in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings. The defense only ranks 26th and the running game ranks dead last. They beat Philadelphia last week even though they were outgained in average yards per play, 6.6 to 6.1.
One thing Arizona has to do in order to beat Minnesota: get away from its dependence on the blitz. The Cardinals blitz on 39 percent of pass plays, the most in the NFL. And so far this season, Kirk Cousins has a phenomenal 93.4 QBR against the blitz.