A winless season is the Unholy Grail of football that every bad NFL team is trying to avoid. For a long time, we thought only the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers would experience this ignominy. Then both the 2008 Detroit Lions and the 2017 Cleveland Browns managed this anti-accomplishment.
Four weeks into the current season, only one team is still in danger of a winless season: the Arizona Cardinals. The good news for Arizona fans is that this week presents a strong opportunity for the Cardinals to get off the schneid and make sure the year ends with something other than zero in the win column.
Upset watch: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-4)
Arizona's chances in this game are helped significantly by the change at quarterback. Or should we say changes at quarterback? Four weeks ago, Arizona would have started veteran Sam Bradford while the home team started the up-and-coming star Jimmy Garoppolo. Now, Bradford has been benched and Garoppolo is injured, so instead we're going to see rookie Josh Rosen against backup C.J. Beathard.
Based solely on performance early this season, that's a much bigger upgrade for the Cardinals than it is a downgrade for the 49ers. It's only one game (plus one drive at the end of Week 3), but Rosen has been a gigantic upgrade over what Bradford was giving the Cardinals in the first three games, according to both ESPN's QBR and Football Outsiders' passing DVOA. Of course, it's very unlikely that Bradford himself, given a chance to stay in the starting lineup, would have continued to scuffle as badly as he did this September. Based on his historical record, he's simply a better quarterback than that. But Rosen brings promise for the future, and Arizona's offense should be better over the long run than it was in Weeks 1-3.
As for the 49ers, Beathard's first start of the year was not much worse than what Garoppolo had been doing as San Francisco's quarterback in his first three starts. But that's not because Beathard was better than expected against the Chargers; it's because Garoppolo had struggled early compared to his stellar 2017 performance. Despite their similar stats this year, there's considerable evidence that going from Garoppolo to Beathard is a major downgrade. Beathard had a QBR of 32.6 a year ago, while Garoppolo had a QBR of 80.7.
Beathard will face an Arizona defense in transition. There have been some unexpected personnel decisions while coach Steve Wilks moves the Cardinals to his preferred 4-3 scheme. Actually, that's more of a 4-2-5 scheme, with three safeties -- Antoine Bethea, Budda Baker, and Tre Boston -- playing over 97 percent of defensive snaps this season. Starting linebacker Deone Bucannon has played just 53 percent of snaps, while 2017 first-round pick Haason Reddick has played a measly 10 percent of snaps.
Arizona had ranked in the top four for defensive DVOA the past three seasons, and it has declined amid the changes. But it hasn't declined that much. The Cardinals still rank 11th in defensive DVOA this season, both overall and against the pass. The pass rush is particularly strong, led as always by defensive end Chandler Jones and bolstered by the improving health of Markus Golden (who missed the first two weeks). The Cardinals rank sixth in pressure rate, according to ESPN Stats & Information (34.5 percent), which is a problem for a 49ers offensive line that ranks 25th in pressure rate allowed (32.9 percent).
On offense, Arizona needs to resist the urge to run the ball to take pressure off Rosen. This game needs to be in Rosen's hands from the get-go. Arizona ranks 31st in run offense DVOA this year, and the Cardinals are particularly bad on first down, when they average a league-low 2.7 yards per carry. Likewise, San Francisco's defense has been stronger against the run (ninth) than the pass (23rd) this season.
Avoiding the ground game doesn't mean minimizing the contributions of David Johnson, though. Johnson has only 13 receptions so far this year, way behind a pace that would get him to the 80 he had in 2016. But while the 49ers are average in DVOA against passes to running backs, they allow a lot of them; only Atlanta has allowed more passes to running backs than San Francisco this season.
Rosen also wants to be looking left when he looks to pass. So far this season, San Francisco is average against passes to the middle and right side of the field, but it is dead last against passes to the offensive left, where cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon has had some difficulties this season.
Cover watch: Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-6.5)
I highlighted Washington as my "upset watch" pick two weeks ago, and everything I wrote then still applies. Without many people noticing, Washington has been a pretty good team through three games. Right now it ranks ninth in DVOA, slightly ahead of the Saints, who rank 11th. Washington has a top-10 offense and ranks 12th in defense, primarily because of a very strong pass defense.
While nobody was paying attention, Washington got very good in coverage this year with a crew of mostly unknowns. Josh Norman is a big name, but Washington is also getting big performances from cornerbacks Quinton Dunbar (a 2015 undrafted free agent) and Fabian Moreau (a 2017 third-round pick). Washington ranks third in pass defense DVOA and would rank first if we looked only at passes with an intended receiver listed.
In fact, this game is a fascinating matchup of the NFL's two most imbalanced defenses through the first four weeks of the season. Washington may be third against the pass, but it is also 31st against the run. New Orleans ranks dead last against the pass, yet it is No. 1 against the run. That's good for fantasy managers who have Alvin Kamara, the returning Mark Ingram, or Alex Smith. It also leads to an interesting setup if New Orleans pulls ahead with a lead: This game is set up for New Orleans to be very good running out the clock but very bad keeping Washington's offense from mounting a comeback. The Saints running the clock could keep their score lower than we're used to, and that could make it easier for Washington to keep things close or score a backdoor cover.