The Houston Astros are the reigning World Series champions and are currently tied with Boston in betting markets as the most likely team to win the World Series this year. Everyone knows the Astros are great, and they've been first or tied for first in this regard pretty much all season. Vegas gives them a 62 percent chance of making it past Cleveland and into the ALCS, but I'm far less convinced that they deserve a number this high. In fact, there's a lot of reason to believe that this series ought to be priced more like a pick 'em.
Here's my betting preview for the Indians-Astros ALDS.
Houston Astros (-160) vs. Cleveland Indians (+140)
Game 1 odds: Indians (Kluber) +132 at Astros (Verlander) -142
Game 1 over/under: 6.5 (O -125)
In almost all respects apart from reputation and winning the 2017 World Series, the Indians and Astros are evenly matched. Houston, which was once the best offense in baseball, took quite a few hits this year. Alex Bregman got better, but Jose Altuve, George Springer and Carlos Correa all got significantly worse. Correa has been bad enough where we have to wonder if he's actually healthy or if something is legitimately wrong with him. Marwin Gonzalez wasn't able to repeat his lucky 2017 stat line, and they didn't add anybody to the mix. They posted a 110 wRC+ this season, which wasn't too much above Cleveland's 105 mark.
When you consider
Both bullpens are among the best in baseball, and with the additions of Brad Hand and Adam Cimber at the trade deadline and Shane Bieber kicking in from the rotation for October, you can make the case that Cleveland's is slightly better.
Defensively, it's another edge to the Indians, who ranked third in baseball in UZR/150 this year (and added Donaldson's glove late), compared to the 18th-ranked Astros.
So up until this point, we basically have a dead heat between the two teams. In Game 1, both teams will roll out their aces, both of whom are borderline top-five pitchers in baseball: Justin Verlander and Corey Kluber. The difference is negligible, and the same is true for the rest of the series. Here is the potential alignment along with each pitcher's context-neutral ERA according to my projection system, THE BAT:
The average ERA difference between the teams is less than 0.15. It favors Houston, but Cleveland can make that up a bit with the platoon advantage in Game 3, when the Indians will roll out mostly righties and switch-hitters against the lone lefty in the series, Keuchel, who has a pretty pronounced platoon split. All told, though, this chart just reinforces the point I've been making all along: These are two very evenly matched teams.
Houston has the name value and the rings boosting its betting odds, but those things don't translate to winning more ballgames. Both teams are elite, and there's little to differentiate them, plain and simple.
I see Houston as a bit of a favorite in Game 1, but not quite as big as Vegas implies. The edge is small, but if I was betting it, I'd bet Cleveland. And because they're so evenly matched throughout the series yet Houston is a strong -160 favorite, betting the Indians is the way to go considering this is just a glorified toss-up.
Pick: Indians +140 for the series, don't bet Game 1 (if you must, lean Indians +132)