The Dodgers are really good, and the Braves are really not. That's what this series comes down to, and if you knew absolutely nothing else, that would be enough to help you bet this one. Vegas, of course, knows this
The Dodgers have been amassing talent for several years now, and they are so far and away the best team in the National League it's laughable. They have enough pitching to fill two literal rotations that would be better than most teams in the league. Caleb Ferguson made three starts all year and is better than every pitcher on the Braves except Game 1 starter Mike Foltynewicz. That should tell you something about the quality of what L.A. is actually rolling out compared to Atlanta.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves
Series odds: Dodgers: -250; Braves: +200
Game 1 odds: Braves (Foltynewicz) +160 at Dodgers (Ryu) -170
Game 1 over/under: 7 (O -125/U +105)
The best pitcher on the Dodgers is, of course, Clayton Kershaw, so there were some raised eyebrows when L.A. announced Hyun-Jin Ryu as Thursday's Game 1 starter instead. This move makes sense, though, since it will allow both Ryu and Kershaw to pitch on regular rest instead of Kershaw on short rest and Ryu on extra. Plus, Kershaw would also be on regular rest for a potential Game 5, so it still allows L.A. to pitch Kershaw twice, if necessary, which is the main thing that matters here. It does give the Braves an extra bit of win probability in Game 1 while rolling out their own ace, but despite lacking the same name value and high-90s velocity, Ryu is every bit as good of a pitcher overall as Folty is.
The Dodgers are a heavy favorite in this game, and they will be an even heavier favorite in Games 2 and 3 when they roll out Kershaw -- an obvious top-five pitcher in baseball -- followed by rookie Walker Buehler, who lacks "experience" but has sneakily become a top-15 pitcher.
Opposite these two, the Braves will hope Kevin Gausman and Anibal Sanchez are enough to get the job done. Sanchez was nearly beat out for a rotation spot by Scott Kazmir during spring training, and though he's actually pitched quite well this year and is a legitimately solid pitcher at this point, solid just doesn't stand up here.
And then there's the already-elite Dodgers offense that added studs Manny Machado, Max Muncy and Brian Dozier midway through this year. Oh, yeah, and L.A.'s already-elite and well-leveraged bullpen that will add stud starters like Ross Stripling, Alex Wood and Kenta Maeda for the postseason. Manager Dave Roberts is known for giving his starters a quick hook during the regular season to avoid unfavorable third-time-through-the-order matchups, and that should be doubly true during the postseason, when stakes are higher and his bullpen is even more beefed up.
None of this is good news for the Braves, who were never expected to get this far at the start of the year and lack what the Dodgers bring to the table in every facet of the game. If they are to win, they will need to ride out some serious good luck and hope the regular season over-performances of guys such as Ronald Acuna Jr., Nick Markakis and Charlie Culberson continue into October. When you're counting on Charlie Culberson, that does not bode particularly well for your chances.
Vegas has handicapped Game 1 perfectly, so I see almost no edge here. Where I do see edge is in the series odds. The Dodgers are a heavy favorite, to be sure, but my system sees them as an even heavier one.
ESPN Chalk pick: Dodgers -250 for the series. Don't bet Game 1.