The 2018 NFL season is just days away, which means we have about as much information we can possibly get to make the best player prop decisions.
After comparing my 2018 player projections to William Hill's list of player props for the upcoming season, the below categories jumped out as areas where we can take advantage.
More rushing yards: Le'Veon Bell (-135) or Kareem Hunt (+115)
Hunt paced the NFL with 1,327 rushing yards last season but accomplished the feat on only 272 carries (sixth-most). Granted, 272 is a big number, but it's particularly large for an Andy Reid offense. Consider that Reid's running-back units have ranked no better than 20th in carries over the past 11 seasons (26.3 average finish), and that includes 30th in 2017. With Spencer Ware healthy and Damien Williams signed, Hunt is a good bet for a reduction in carries (projection: 236) and a dip in efficiency (projection: 4.23 yards per carry).
Bell, meanwhile, has reached 1,268 rushing yards during each of the past three seasons in which he's played 12-plus games, ranking in the top five in the category all three seasons. When active, he's been on the field for a ridiculous 87 percent of the Steelers' snaps over the past four seasons.
Bell is the favorite here, but I have him projected well ahead of Hunt (1,319-999), so it's worth the investment.
The Pick: Bell
More rushing yards: Todd Gurley (-120) or Ezekiel Elliott (EV)
This one feels almost too good to be true. One of the game's best backs in one of the league's run-heaviest offenses, Elliott averaged 108.7 rushing yards per game in 2016 and 98.3 per game in 2017. During his career season in 2017, Gurley averaged 87.0 rushing yards per game. Elliott's efficiency figures to improve some this season after his YPC fell from 5.1 as a rookie to 4.1 in 2017 (his YAC actually improved from 1.96 to 1.98). Gurley, meanwhile, jumped from 3.2 YPC in 2016 to 4.7 in 2017 -- both of which are hard marks to hit over a large sample.
Elliott is the favorite to lead the NFL in rushing and I project him to outrush Gurley 1,404-1,274.
The Pick: Elliott
More rushing yards: Jordan Howard (+105) or Melvin Gordon (-125)
Howard has outrushed Gordon during each of his two seasons in the league: 1,313-997 in 2016 and 1,122-1,105 in 2017. That's despite Gordon registering 10 more carries than Howard during the span. Howard's volume benefited from the presence of conservative head coach John Fox, but his impressive efficiency (4.6 career YPC) can't be overlooked. Gordon, on the other hand, has never eclipsed 3.9 YPC in his three-season career.
Even if Howard sees a dip in carries (projection: 239), running against lighter boxes in Matt Nagy's offense should continue to allow solid efficiency. Gordon is the better bet in the carry department (projection: 264), but it's about a wash in terms of yardage (1,024-1,023), so take your chances with Howard at +105.
The Pick: Howard
More receiving yards: Rob Gronkowski (-110) or Travis Kelce (-110)
Kelce hit a career high with 1,125 receiving yards in 2016, but fell to 1,038 last season. The drop was fueled by more downfield targets (average depth of target increased from 6.7 to 9.3), which led to a lower catch rate and less post-catch production. Gronkowski has struggled with injuries over the past six seasons, but has appeared in at least 14 games three of the past four. He reached 1,084 receiving yards (his 2017 mark in 14 games) during each of those three campaigns.
Especially with Kelce switching from super-accurate Alex Smith to unproven Patrick Mahomes while Gronkowski continues to benefit from Tom Brady and a weak wide receiver group, Gronk gets the edge by a margin of 1,126-1,007.
The Pick: Gronkowski
More receiving yards: A.J. Green (+160) or Odell Beckham Jr. (-180)
As dominant as Beckham has been early in his career, he quietly was on pace for a career-low 1,208 receiving yards through Week 4 last season. That's after hitting 1,450 yards in 2015 and 1,367 yards in 2016 (his only season appearing in 16 regular-season games). Beckham's yards per target has decreased each season of his career, hitting a below-average 7.4 over 41 targets last season.
Green had a bit off a bizarre 2017. His YPR barely changed from 2016, but he was used down a field a bit more and his catch rate plummeted from terrific (69 percent) to horrific (54 percent). The Bengals still have offensive-line issues, but the situation is better than last season. Andy Dalton is a below-average starter, but he's helped Green to hit 1,000-plus yards during six of seven seasons, including at least 1,297 yards three of the past six seasons.
Beckham turns 26 this season and is a poor bet to sustain his otherworldly early-career efficiency. He also has more competition for targets than ever before in the form of Evan Engram, Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard. This is a close call -- 1,297-1,295 -- but Green is considered a massive underdog, which makes this attractive.
The Pick: Green
More passing yards: Jared Goff (-120) or Russell Wilson (EV)
Wilson ranked first in the league in dropbacks and sixth in pass attempts last season. Prior to 2017, he had never finished better than 13th in the former or 15th in the latter. Seattle operated the game-script-adjusted pass-heaviest offense in the league last season, but is expected to move back toward the run after hiring run-heavy offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, allowing Paul Richardson and Jimmy Graham to walk in free agency and taking Rashaad Penny in the first round of April's draft. Even if we assume a slight increase in efficiency for Wilson, a drop from 553 attempts to 504 (as currently projected) would lead to a significant drop from his 3,983 passing-yards total of 2017.
Goff threw for 3,804 yards in his first season working under head coach Sean McVay. Granted, his efficiency was outstanding and perhaps unsustainable (8.0 YPA), but the Rams also figure to throw a bit more in 2018. Consider that a league-high 52 percent of their offensive plays were run with a lead last season. Even though they improved defensively, that will be a hard number to match, especially in a loaded NFC. Goff attempted 477 passes in 15 games last season, so a bump up to 548 (current projection) is reasonable and would still rank in the bottom 10 in the league.
Goff is the favorite here, but he easily gets the nod 4,049-3,694, so it's worth a look.
The Pick: Goff
More passing yards: Kirk Cousins (+120) or Matt Ryan (-140)
Cousins is changing teams, which is always a tricky variable, but considering his impressive recent production and strong supporting cast, he's positioned well for a fourth consecutive season over 4,000 passing yards. Cousins hit his career high in the category in 2016 (4,917), but attempted 66 fewer passes last season en route to throwing for 4,093 yards, his lowest total since taking over as a full-time starter in 2015. Nonetheless, he's averaged at least 7.6 yards per attempt each of the past four seasons.
Ryan has eclipsed 4,000 yards each of the past seven seasons, though his 4,095 yards last season marks his lowest during the span. Atlanta isn't nearly as pass-heavy as it was earlier in Ryan's career when he was regularly reaching 600 attempts and 4,500 pass yards.
Both teams have a defense expected to be good (or even great), which could limit second-half passing yardage. Both players figure to be similar in terms of pass attempts and efficiency. The fact that it's close (projection: Cousins 4,324, Ryan 4,300) makes Cousins at +120 an attractive play.
The Pick: Cousins
Projected category leaders
Most passing yards: Tom Brady (4/1) -- projection: 4,717
Most rushing yards: Ezekiel Elliott (9/2) -- projection: 1,404
Most receiving yards: Antonio Brown (3/1) -- projection: 1,582