The hoopla over the Floyd Mayweather-Conor McGregor super fight is finally residing, and Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series is a wrap after eight episodes. It's not that fight fans haven't had plenty to watch, but when the UFC calendar gets back into full swing this weekend, they'll be offering a title fight, and a calendar of events that will push the pace at nearly max capacity through year end. So strap yourselves in.
The women's bantamweight title fight -- initially the co-main event behind Demetrious Johnson vs. Ray Borg before its cancellation -- is nearly a pick em', in a division that has yet to see a single title fight go the distance, and is normally known for steep odds. Throw in a few matchups between veterans and where winners could push closer to title contention, and there's a something for everyone in Edmonton on Saturday.
But where is the betting value?
Featherweight Matchup: No. 8 Jeremy Stephens (-110) vs No. 14 (LW) Gilbert Melendez (-110)
Two veterans of the sport are both trying to stay relevant after falling into losing streaks. Former lightweights, now fighting at featherweight, both men need a win badly. The stats confirm what the odds are telling us, that this is a very close matchup, that could go either way.
Melendez is no stranger to close fights going the distance, but Stephens prefers to finish with a bang, or he's normally edged out on the cards. That's because Melendez is solid all over the cage. He pushes a confident pace while standing at a distance, and is effective in the clinch and on the mat. Overall, he out-works and out-lands opponents round to round, even if his finishing potential is stifled by his continuously tough competition.
On the other side Stephens prefers to brawl, and his 11 recorded knockdowns place him just outside the record tables. Unfortunately, when he doesn't land the big shot, he sometimes fails to win rounds, and doesn't have many weapons up close and on the mat.
Insider Recommends: Assuming Melendez has a normal weight cut in his 145 pound debut, his versatility and technical striking should be enough to win rounds over the more reckless, but dangerous Stephens. At even money, take Melendez straight and avoid predicting the method of outcome, as there are lots of ways this could go depending on game plan.
Women's bantamweight title Matchup: Champion Amanda Nunes (+110) vs No. 1 Valentina Shevchenko (-130)
They've met before, and Nunes edged the decision. And now we have the luxury of more data to see. The discrepancy between the striking metrics is the first thing to notice, but also something that needs context. Shevchenko's stats are excellent, while Nunes' stats are just bonkers. However, the strength of competition matters here. Shevchenko went the distance with, and defeated both Holly Holm and Sarah Kaufman, who excel at striking. Meanwhile, Nunes most recently breezed through Ronda Rousey and Miesha Tate, who both have notoriously porous striking defense, potentially inflating Nunes' metrics.
Shevchenko has the pedigree of a seasoned professional kickboxer and Muay Thai striker, while Nunes has the raw effectiveness of an aggressive fighter who also exploits opponents who fear her ground game. Shevchenko hopes to have improved her ground skills enough to more effectively manage the standup up to her favor in this rematch. Her striking defense is among the best in the division, while Nunes's aggression could work against her pursuing the more technical striker. But that's if Nunes doesn't decide to make this a jiu jitsu contest. In their first fight, Nunes won the first two rounds by mixing in ground control, before fading in the third and being outstruck by Shevchenko.
Insider Recommends: The lines are tight, and so is the prediction. A current slight lean for Shevchenko isn't worth much at the current price, but watching line movement could result in value closer to fight time. Shevchenko may drop rounds if she gets put on the mat, but standing and trading pure strikes favors her base, and she may be fresher in the later rounds. Also consider the Over 2.5 rounds at minus-135, as this is the tightest matchup we've seen yet in a women's bantamweight title contest, which could buck the trend of early finishes for this division.