This Saturday night, live from the T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas, Nevada is a mega 12-Round super middleweight bout at a catchweight of 164.5 pounds, pitting one of boxing's pound-for-pound top fighters in Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez (48-1-1 34 KOs) vs Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr. (50-2-1 32 KOs).
The HBO PPV card is slated to begin at 9 p.m. ET. This is a busy weekend in sports as the fight between the two Mexican stars coincides with Cinco De Mayo weekend, the Kentucky Derby, and the NBA playoffs.
Although there is no official title at stake, there is the title of who is the best Mexican fighter ... and that might be more important to both fighters come fight night. As explained by Arash Markazi, the first Saturday in May has traditionally been a showcase of boxing's top talent.
Let's look at where the money is going, along with opinions from boxing experts and trainers, and my pick for this mega matchup:
Jeff Sherman, Assistant Sportsbook Manager at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, opened the fight with Alvarez -900 and Chavez Jr. +600. Sherman got immediate
At the William Hill US, Senior Trader, Adam Pullen opened the fight with Alvarez -950 and Chavez Jr. +625.
"Tickets are not surprising thus far with a ratio of 10-1 being written on the underdog, so our current price is -550/+425," said Pullen. He opened the total at 10.5 rounds over -250 and under +210. Pullen is expecting the usual betting pattern of underdog money early and favorite money very late.
Experts weigh in
• Evan Young (boxing sharp): "In this catch weight bout, Canelo is fighting 10 pounds over his usual fighting weight, while the recently bulked Chavez Jr. has to reduce to 165. Many think Chavez's size, chin and pressure will trouble the prohibitive favorite Canelo. And Chavez Jr. has hired the infamous Memo Heredia (as well as respected boxing trainer Nacho Beristain) who helped get Juan Manuel Marquez a KO win over Manny Pacquiao. But with all that, I think Chavez has a problem. Canelo is a pinpoint puncher with very quick hands. I'm looking for Canelo to win, likely by wide decision or perhaps a late stoppage."
• Eric Bradley (boxing trainer): "Chavez brings an entertainment factor, but Canelo beats on him for the 12-round victory. You can't cram for an exam of this magnitude overnight."
• Stephen "Breadman" Edwards (boxing trainer): "Canelo wins, too much talent!"
• Marcus Figueroa (boxing sharp): "Been going back and forth on this one. It troubles me Jr. is so light so soon. Reminds me of De La Hoya versus Pacquiao. I think Jr. has drained himself too soon instead of cutting the last 10 pounds the day before. Canelo [via unanimous decision] or late round TKO."
• Colin Morrison (boxing sharp): "I am trusting that making weight will not leave Chavez Jr. a corpse, therefore guaranteeing us a competitive fight. Clearly Canelo is the better boxer and he seems to be improving with each fight, but the bigger, stronger Chavez Jr. will be a tough out for him. My call for this fight is for Canelo Alvarez to be awarded a UD victory somewhere in the region of 116-112 after a classic Mexico vs. Mexico battle."
• John "Iceman" Scully (boxing trainer): "I think it's going to be a very intense and competitive fight. A couple years ago I wouldn't have said so, but I believe Chavez has matured and he's physically going to be in great shape. National pride is a powerful thing and I see both guys having plenty of it. Both guys will be willing to go down fighting if need be. I believe Chavez can hurt Canelo, and maybe will a couple times, but ultimately, I think Alvarez will get inside close and work the body with great efficiency and effect. I think he will get more done and will win a decision."
• Michael Mohan (boxing sharp): "The Canelo versus Chavez Jr. fight should be entertaining. I will go with Canelo to win by decision, if Chavez Jr. does not look weight drained. If Chavez Jr. looks up to par, then the fight will go the distance, even though Chavez will most likely lose. If Chavez Jr. looks weight drained, I will either sit this one out or take Canelo by inside the distance. I expect the Canelo decision line to increase in value as fight time approaches, assuming a healthy Chavez Jr. actually shows up to the weigh-in."
• Abraham Gonzalez (boxing sharp): "Although in my heart I would like to see Chavez Jr. win, the reality is that Canelo will beat him via decision with his hand speed and legs like Sergio Martinez did. Canelo by decision with a rematch in September."
Tale of the tape:
Alvarez: The 26-year-old fighting out of Guadalajara, Mexica is known more by his nickname of 'Canelo' which translates from Spanish to English as Cinnamon, a reference to his red hair. Alvarez is the former WBO junior middleweight (154-lb) champion, WBC middleweight champion, WBC junior middleweight champion and WBA junior middleweight champion. This will be his first fight above 155 pounds.
He is the No. 1-ranked junior middleweight and No. 7-ranked pound-for-pound fighter according to ESPN. He is on a six-fight win streak since losing to one of boxing's best, Floyd Mayweather, in September of 2013. He is promoted by Golden Boy Promotions (Oscar De La Hoya) and is one of boxing's top talents. He possesses a lethal body attack and at least 40 percent of landed punches have been to the opponent's body in three of the last five fights, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Canelo does his best when his opponents stand and trade with him, but seems to struggle and not be as dominant with boxers who show him movement like Mayweather and Erislandy Lara.
Chavez Jr.: The 31-year-old fighting out of Culiacan, Mexico is the son of legendary Mexican Champion, Julio Cesar Chavez. He has had to deal with the overwhelming pressure of duplicating his father's success and showing the warrior mentality his father did through his illustrious career. This is a very big fight for Jr. as the last five-plus years he has dealt with drug suspensions and came into fights over the weight limit, out of shape and not focused. Along those lines, there is a $1 million penalty for each pound he comes in over the 164.5 limit, so it behooves him to mitigate his mistakes of the past.
For this fight he has hired nutritionist extraordinaire Angel 'Memo' Heredia and famed trainer Ignacio 'Nacho' Beristain who both are part of the boxing great Juan Manuel Marquez's team. This is the biggest fight of his career since coming short against Sergio Martinez for the middleweight championship in 2012 via decision loss. He then quit on his stool versus Andrzej Fonfara after taking a beating for nine rounds. He is the former WBC Middleweight Champion and 83 percent of his landed punches are power punches according to CompuBox. He will have a four-inch height advantage and I feel will rehydrate after the weigh in to around 186 pounds. He will have a decided advantage in being the bigger man, not only by height but by weight come fight night.
Betting the fight
The panel above favors Canelo 8-0 to win this fight. I wouldn't lay Canelo above -200 in this fight, and the value is all gone in Chavez from the opening price of +600. I feel Chavez is more than live in this fight and with the addition of Memo and Nacho, will fight the fight of his life, but I don't like the current odds of +425. I lean toward Chavez if the price is driven back up, but I do like the over 9.5 rounds. -200 if Chavez looks good at the weigh-in and the weight loss doesn't have him looking gaunt and dehydrated.