Reason for optimism: Regression, inevitable after the 35-win improvement over two seasons, set in, and yet the Astros were still contenders.
Reason for pessimism: For two years running their cross-state foes have kept them at bay with Hogwarts-like dark magic -- and as active as the front office was, they didn't sign an Auror.
The Astros repeated a material weakness on offense in 2016 that didn't allow them to achieve their lofty playoff expectations. Rather than repeat myself verbatim, take a look at last year's projection because it reads like a crystal ball, and the problem, a mildly improving but still bottom-tier offense in terms of batting average and on-base percentage, did them in. The Astros merely hit a lot of home runs last year (198 in 2016, 14th in the majors) instead of a ton in 2015 (230 in 2015, 2nd most), and it couldn't mask their other offensive shortcomings.
Houston's front office did not address this deficiency in the 2015 offseason, but they certainly did this year.
The three lineup anchors that remain -- Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and George Springer -- are all 27 or younger and had a combined OBP of .331, well above the team's mark of .319. I'm projecting the Astros to jump from 19th to 4th in OBP, the most vital offensive stat for scoring runs, and that's going to make a huge difference in their offensive output. Bravo to the Astros front office: Despite the absence of splashy nine-figure contracts, this is the most consequential offseason revamping I have seen across the majors.
The only downside is that the effect on team defense in unknowable right now. If there's good news in that fact for Houston, it's that 2016's above-.500 finish, unlike 2015's, didn't rely on stellar defense. Houston fell to 22nd in my adjusted defensive efficiency rankings, which means that even if the new faces in the field don't help the defense, they probably aren't going to sabotage the increase in runs scored they will provide.
From there, let's move to another of the Astros' unquestioned strengths, their bullpen. The Astros may have finished tied for 8th in bullpen ERA at 3.56 last season, but based on skills displayed, they were quite a bit better than that. Their collective SIERA stood at 3.05, by far an MLB-best. That's not surprising when you realize they were first in K-rate and BB-rate, leading to an absurd K-BB rate of 20.6 percent. Why is that absurd? Five different MLB bullpens could have gone the entire season without issuing a free pass and they still would have finished with a lower K-BB rate than the Astros. Like everything else in Houston, this is by design, and the front office will bring back all but one of the seven most-used arms from 2016.
That leaves the last year's league-average rotation as the only unit to address in terms of playoff-caliber.
In 2016 the starters gave up three-quarters more of a run every nine innings compared to 2015 and in the process went from second in the American League to MLB average in runs allowed. A portion of that increase resulted from a decline in defense, but most of it resulted from regression (Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh) or disappointing performances from newcomers (Doug Fister and Mike Fiers.) McHugh and Keuchel were better than their results, so look for positive regression there in 2017.
In addition, Charlie Morton has been brought in to replace the jettisoned Fister. Morton has posted sub-4.00 SIERAs for four years running, and while some of that is undoubtedly due to pitch framing, the good news for him and the entire staff is that McCann consistently grades out as an excellent pitch framer -- at one time the very best in the game. That should maintain the excellence Jason Castro provided the past three seasons.
I admit I'm both bitterly disappointed yet also impressed that oddsmakers installed the Astros as such heavy favorites in the NL West.
I thought my 92-win projection would result in a table-pounding "over" call. Instead it was barely higher than Vegas' opening market; however, that market has dropped to 89.5 (from 91.5), so I'm prepared to make this an "over" call.
It's my belief you're reading the preview for not only the American League pennant winners, but the 2017 heirs to the banner being raised on the North Side of Chicago on Opening Day. Improbably, I like Houston's World Series futures odds at 12-1 more than the "over" 89.5 wins.
2016 projection: 92-70 (first, AL West)
Bet recommendation: Over