Reason for optimism: Tampa wasn't nearly as bad as its record indicated last year.
Reason for pessimism: Memories of the 'Devil Rays' era of the club were evoked.
Like the Oakland Athletics, it seems like every year I'm high on the Tampa Bay Rays, at least higher than consensus. Prior to last year, it was the proper default setting. Going back to 2012, as our table below does, (and probably further back than that based on results that saw them conquering the Red Sox and Yankees), the "over" was a consistent winning ticket. That changed last year, though, as the team had a truly horrible year that recalled the dark days of the perpetual 90-plus-loss Devil Rays.
Despite a return to the AL East basement creating the look of the old Devil Rays, the 2016 Rays weren't nearly as bad as their record indicated. The "devil," it appears, wasn't in the Rays, but in the details. And the detailed data suggests Tampa's negative-41 run-differential should have led to a win total in the high-70s instead of the high-60s. They had some negative cluster luck to boot. But relying too much on those indicators misses the point that every facet of the team disappointed last year, including the once-stellar defense.
Having finished in the top five in adjusted defensive efficiency -- which measures a team's ability to turn batted balls into outs and erase existing base-runners -- three of the prior four years, Tampa's plunge last year to 21st was shocking. While that played a role in the Rays allowing opponents to score more than 700 runs for the first time since 2009, the demise of the rotation played a bigger role. Thought by many to be a strength entering the 2016 season, the rotation imploded, allowing 4.61 runs per nine innings to score. In particular Chris Archer (4.02 ERA) and Drew Smyly (4.88 ERA) suffered career-worst years, although Archer did recover enough in the second half of the season to suggest his skill erosion was temporary. Smyly's entire year was much more problematic, but no matter, he's no longer with the team.
Despite Smyly's departure and the deadline trade of Matt Moore to San Francisco, there are no new faces in Tampa's rotation this year. However, depth of the rotation was an asset a year ago ... now there are a lot more question marks about the arms still left.
There's really only one addition of note to the lineup, as everyone who made at least 250 plate appearances for the team in 2016 returns. Tampa has emphasized framing over offense in choosing a battery mate for the pitching staff for years, and if the staff is putting up low 3.00 ERAs it makes sense. But they need some offense from the position as well, as last year's .202/.265/.349 output from their catcher position illustrates, and free-agent Wilson Ramos may finally be the answer. However, he's coming off knee surgery and won't be ready until at least midseason.
Finally, there's the bullpen, which has also traditionally been an area of relative strength for the Rays. Just like the rotation, they had an ERA over 4.00 last season, and you need to go back to 2007 to find a year the relievers were that toxic. They gave up a whopping 73 home runs, tied for fourth-worst with the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen's 4.98 ERA -- and Arizona's pen threw 61 more innings! Home runs can be fluky, and in high-leverage situations that variance can be magnified, but Tampa's pen is not a ground ball inducing bunch, so some of the excessive home runs are a case of playing with fire.
I can definitely see how someone can run the numbers and see the Rays bouncing from 68 wins to an over .500 team this year, but it's not going to be me. I see a lot of parallels between the A's in 2015 and the Rays last year. Both teams, by the numbers, were a lot better than their last-place finish indicated, and in the A's case, it trapped me.
I see a rotation-depth problem in Tampa, and probably because I bear the scars of backing Archer in many single-game situations last year, I'm not necessarily buying he'll return to his 2015 form. I'm more worried that his ending 3.50 SIERA of last season is a lot closer to his best-case scenario going forward than his worst. Personal memories are dangerous projection tools, however, and as a result, my spreadsheets see more wins for the 2017 squad than my eyes do. Nothing will tempt me with an over bet this year though, especially since the market is set at 78.5 wins.
2017 projection: 80-82 (third, AL East)
Bet recommendation: Pass