Reason for optimism: Like Seinfeld's David Puddy and Elaine Benes, the break-up of Jose Bautista and the Blue Jays didn't take.
Reason for pessimism: Like Friends' Ross and Rachel, Toronto and Edwin Encarnacion are on a break.
Very quietly, the Blue Jays got old as the franchise morphed from a team led by its offense to one led by the pitching staff in 2016, a season that increasingly began to look like a last stand. Let's unpack the various parts of that sentence:
Quietly: To the casual baseball fan, Toronto's season didn't seem remarkable and, as always, they probably didn't get enough attention in the U.S. While they didn't win the division as in 2015, the Jays comfortably made the playoffs and even sat in first place as late as Labor Day.
Old: The passing of the torch didn't get celebrated but the Blue Jays fielded the oldest lineup in baseball last year, older than the Yankees, who had held that distinction for years.
Morphed: The 2015 team bludgeoned its opponents, utilizing a rare blend of elite power and elite contact rate to completely lap the league in runs scored. Last year, the offensive output plunged 132 runs, the power dropped and the strikeouts increased all while the rest of the league scored more runs. The Blue Jays countered their loss of relative offensive superiority by allowing the fewest runs in the American League.
Last stand: With both hitting and defense appearing to bear the brunt of the aging team, and with the loss of two of its offensive stalwarts imminent, October 2016 appeared to be the last chance for this franchise to recapture the glory of nearly a quarter-century ago.
Despite knocking off the No. 1 seed in the American League in the American League Division Series, Toronto, of course, didn't collect the franchise's third World Series championship as it lost to the Indians in the American League Championship Series. However, fortune broke the Jays' way a couple of months later when free agent Jose Bautista re-signed with the club after not finding the free-agent market to his liking.
So, with free-agent signing Kendrys Morales -- coming off a 30-home run year -- tapped to assume the DH role held by Encarnacion, and having shed the starting pitcher with the highest ERA on last year's staff -- R.A. Dickey -- Boston had better look out, right?
It doesn't quite look that way. Re-signing Bautista unquestionably makes the Blue Jays better this year compared to the alternatives, but I have little confidence replacing Dickey with Francisco Liriano is a year-over-year improvement. Liriano's 49-inning stint with Toronto after a deadline trade certainly looked effective, as he posted a 2.92 ERA, but one can't ignore the 5.46 ERA he amassed in Pittsburgh in more than twice as many innings. Worse, his SIERA indicated the results in Pittsburgh, while not deserving mid-5.00 ERA status, were the result of significant skill erosion.
Like Liriano's 2.92 ERA with Toronto, the entire staff allowed runs far below their talent level. The favorable spread between the team's ERA and it's SIERA stood at 0.59, largest in the American League. Defense has something to do with it, and while Toronto's defense was no longer the best in baseball (or even the American League) as in 2015, it still aided the staff. Still, some regression is sure to come, especially from J.A. Happ and Aaron Sanchez. Finally, as mentioned in the Orioles and Red Sox previews, a pitching staff with more than 150 starts from five core members experiencing exceptional health is a phenomenon almost never repeated. Toronto got 152.
The team's period of offensive dominance (2015) is surely in the past, but with Josh Donaldson, Bautista and a still above-average, if no longer transcendent, hitting shortstop in Troy Tulowitzki, the lineup is still formidable. You may even see a bump in runs scored due to some bounce-back performances. But there is a near-zero chance this staff allows the fewest runs in the American League this year. The talent level of the rotation doesn't come close to deserving those sort of results and while still excellent, the aging defense slipped last year to merely excellent from dominant. A further slip in 2017 to mildly above-average could be devastating to the mildly skilled rotation.
Toronto's total wins market opened at 84.5, two games lower than last year, and has remained stable. My guarded expectations for 2017 compared to 2016 means last year's strong "over" call at the 86.5 wins level has morphed into a "fair market" grade this year at 84.5. I've still got the Blue Jays in the playoffs, but unlike last year, making the postseason from a position of weakness, not strength.
2017 projection: 85-77 (second, AL East)
Bet recommendation: Pass