Reason for optimism: With the exception of their respected elder, first baseman Joe Mauer, the entire starting lineup is under 30, stocked with power and upside.
Reason for pessimism: Thanks to an inability to strike out batters, the rotation will give up runs faster than the offense can score them.
If a team were forced to allow an opponent to bat 10 times over the course of a game, instead of nine, you can quickly calculate the effect it would have on that team's win percentage. Rather obviously, you'd expect this team to allow 11 percent more runs over the course of a season. In the present scoring environment, that's 80 runs a year. Think of the consequence like this: An otherwise .500 team that was league average in every other way would end up 73-89, or 16 games under .500.
Allowing a team an extra at bat each game is the same as letting it hit three extra balls into the field of play each game, which is exactly what the Minnesota Twins allow to happen year after year after year.
Although they broke their five-year streak of striking out batters at the lowest rate in the majors by finishing 28th, Minnesota's rotation still finished last among starters and fell slightly further behind the league average compared to 2015.
Here's how the effects of that disadvantage stack up with the team the Twins have no hopes of catching for AL Central dominance, the Cleveland Indians: Minnesota allowed opponents to hit 428 more balls into the field of play than Cleveland did. That's close to three a game, hence the example that led off this piece. In other words, based on one skill possessed by the pitching staff, the Twins are seven or eight wins in the hole to Cleveland.
It's an incredible stat, and as I seem to write every year, the Twins' front office has never taken any steps to address this massive shortcoming. (In fact, by constantly backing those pitchers with one of the worst defensive units in the majors, it only makes the problem worse; if your child had a peanut allergy, you wouldn't move next to a Jif factory.)
So, it should come as no surprise that all five pitchers slated to constitute the Twins' rotation this year made at least double-digit starts for the team last year. Worse, with 39-year-old Ryan Vogelsong in line for a relief role, you can be certain the Twins have plans for him to be a spot starter at some point this year. With his 16.7 percent strikeout rate with Pittsburgh last year, he certainly has the right résumé for Minnesota's starters.
From a critical reasoning standpoint and as it relates to the rotation, the Twins' roster construction is infuriating. From the rest of the team's standpoint, it's truly a shame. Despite losing more than 100 games for the first time since 1982, Minnesota scored more runs last year than any season since 2010, and it's because they are getting younger and more talented at the plate. This is really an exciting lineup.
There's the possibility of offensive upside at every position, with the exception of catcher, thanks to the signing of free agent Jason Castro. His bat is weak, but Castro at least can take steps to mitigate the rotation's weakness. He arrives from Houston, where he ranked third in framing/stealing strikes last season, according to Baseball Prospectus. That's a whole lot better than the man he's replacing, Kurt Suzuki, who annually ranks among the worst framers (103rd last year).
Oddsmakers gave us a true gift last year, when fooled by the mirage of 2015's over-.500 finish, they priced the Twins at 79.5 wins, the team's highest total since 2011. This year, the opening Vegas market stood at 75.5 and then dropped a game.
Minnesota has an offense that should score more than the league average, and beyond that there's upside. That would normally make a 75 or lower wins total, a screaming buy. I can't get there, though, because of the rotation and its inability to get strikeouts. Neutral baseball fans are going to be treated to a lot of 8-6 games on their MLB Extra Innings package. If it's true that Castro's framing work alone is going to raise staff strikeout rates across the board, or if the youngsters in the field improve the defense to league average, then my projection is far too conservative.
2017 projection: 72-90 (fourth, AL Central)
Bet recommendation: Pass