Reason for optimism: Flags fly forever, and the newest ones won't show signs of aging for years.
Reason for pessimism: The roster, on the other hand, showed unmistakable signs of aging last season.
Pssssst! The two-time American League pennant winners and 2015 World Series champions were bad last year.
Outwardly, they didn't finish above .500 for the first time in four seasons, so that assessment shouldn't come as a total surprise. But a look inside the results reveals a steeper decline. Not only did their run differential turn decisively negative (-37), but even that level of below-average play masked an even worse performance helped by fortunate sequencing, or cluster luck.
The Royals allowed 71 more runs than the year before, but it probably should have been closer to 100 more. After some spectacular performances in years past, the bullpen regressed to merely above-average, posting a 3.45 ERA. That's still top-tier, good for fifth in the majors, but it represented three-quarters of a run more per nine innings. When your bullpen throws as many innings as Kansas City's does, it adds up to 46 more runs.
The rotation was an even bigger problem. Sporting a 4.67 ERA, third-worst in the American League, Kansas City's starters never gave the bullpen a chance to play the role of hero as was the case in their two pennant-winning efforts. The culprit was three of the five rotation spots: Edinson Volquez (5.37 ERA), the late Yordano Ventura (4.45 ERA) and the two-headed, fifth-starter combo of Chris Young (7.39 ERA) and Dillon Gee (5.55 ERA). Those arms combined for 93 starts of 5.29-ERA baseball.
As a standalone rotation, that would have ranked 29th in the majors, and this actually represents a best-case scenario for the Royals this year. For reasons both rational and tragic, only Young is still on the roster -- and that's as a long reliever. Joining last year's bright spots Danny Duffy and Ian Kennedy are Jason Vargas, Jason Hammel and Travis Wood. Not one of them should contend for an All-Star spot or a postseason award, but they do have a chance to save the team a full run every nine innings they pitch.
The offense also dropped off last year, just as some of the men wearing World Series rings hit the downside of the aging curve. While Alex Gordon has probably already played his best baseball in a Royals uniform, Kansas City has a couple of areas of possible improvement. Mike Moustakas only made 113 plate appearances last season, and he's just 28 years old, in a contract year. Owing to the fact that he too owns a shiny World Series ring, new arrival Jorge Soler should fit in nicely in the outfield, where his power could give a boost to the offense.
The pennant-winning teams of 2014 and 2015 featured stellar defenses, with the '15 team ranked third in my adjusted defensive efficiency ratings. They dropped off last year to become the epitome of "league-average," neither saving nor costing runs compared to the rest of the league. As long as the defense stays in the middle-third tier, the Royals remain a threat to play .500 baseball.
I happened to be in Las Vegas on business just a few days after Westgate posted its MLB win totals. I took a colleague with me to show him the SuperBook, and even though I didn't have any of my data with me, when I looked at the sheets showing the Royals priced at 74.5 wins, I figured I didn't need my laptop to know that my calculations would find value at that price.
So in a display of confidence that surely shook Jay Kornegay, I took out a wad of ten dollar bills and started dropping Hamiltons like I was Aaron Burr. Turns out the joke was on me because when I looked at my ticket, the Royals had already moved up to 76 wins. For our purposes, if the closing price is anything higher than 76, it's a pass. However, at 76 wins or less, this is a rare "over" play in the American League.
2017 projection: 78-84 (third, AL Central)
Bet recommendation: Over