Reason for optimism: There's lots of stability from the team that won 86 games last season.
Reason for pessimism: It's really not that different from the team that won 74 games in 2015; that team is just two years older.
If you strip away the luck involved in converting team production into both runs scored and allowed, and remove the luck converting a team's run differential into wins, then the Tigers deserved to be playing in the AL wild-card game last year. That performance marked an impressive bounce-back from the last-place finish in the AL Central in 2015. Their results last year may have been earned -- and it's too bad it didn't result in a playoff appearance -- but mainly due to the effects of aging, it doesn't look to be repeatable.
However, Detroit's management took a look at the hand it's been dealt and announced: I'll play these. It's possible that every pitcher who started a game for the Tigers last year -- nine total -- will be on the Opening Day roster. That's a virtually unheard of stability in today's MLB environment.
The story is very similar for the every-day players. While some (unexciting) combination of Tyler Collins, Mikie Mahtook, and JaCoby Jones will combine by season's end to take the bulk of the starts in center field, the other eight lineup spots are expected to be manned by the same players who had the bulk of those at-bats last year. Again, you just don't see that on other rosters.
Then there's the bullpen, where all 11 relievers who threw double-digit innings for the Tigers last season (including primary starter Anibal Sanchez) are projected to return in 2017. If this was another team with a history of budget stinginess, like the Marlins, I'd suspect this was a plot to save money on uniforms and program printing costs. But the Tigers, under owner Mike Ilitch, who died Feb. 10, have spent money to make the team better, so it appears management thinks last year's results are a precursor of more success this year. I fear that's too optimistic of an interpretation of last year's results.
Stability in a rotation is a wonderful trait, but you'd prefer stability from a rotation that excels, not one that had a 4.25 ERA for the season with a 26-game starter (Sanchez) sporting a 6.04 ERA. Furthermore, one of the pitchers who kept the ERA low was AL Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer (3.06 ERA). Sixteen different MLB pitchers who threw 150 innings last season had an ERA of 3.15 or lower. Fulmer was one of three pitchers whose below-average strikeout rate, among other skills, suggested an ERA above 4.00 to be more indicative of his talent. (The other two were Tanner Roark and Aaron Sanchez.)
Between Fulmer's expected regression, and eroding skills from Sanchez and Jordan Zimmermann, I'm probably more pessimistic than most that last year's runs allowed year-over-year improvement of 82 runs can possibly be maintained. There is precious little room for regression for an 86-win team with playoff aspirations.
The offense posted a 66-run improvement last year, and that, too, looks difficult to maintain as it was anchored by 34-year-old Ian Kinsler, who had his best year since 2011 and tied his career-best wRC+. However, it's the two-year performance of Victor Martinez that encapsulates my view of the team this year. Martinez wielded a below-replacement-level bat in 2015, but an above-average bat last season. On a wRC+ basis, he went from 78 to 120 -- essentially 20 percent below league average to 20 percent above. The entire Tigers offense also improved last year, to a slightly less extreme degree.
My view for this year is that the team performance will be somewhere between those poles, which makes the Tigers a very strong candidate to regress to a roughly .500 team. This is the one model-based outlook that I can see hometown fans taking the most issue with. Last year's results were not a case of "your eyes lied" because, in fact, Detroit played to the same level its ending win total suggested. Age-related regression, as opposed to luck regression, is a much more hidden destroyer of value.
Models, however, aren't swayed by the bounce-back seasons from Kinsler, Martinez and, to a lesser degree, the faces of the franchise, Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander. After opening at 85.5 wins in Reno, the Tigers' total win market in Las Vegas opened at 83.5, where it has remained stable. Regardless of where it might drift, this ranks as one of my favorite "under" plays on the board.
2017 projection: 78-84 (second, AL Central)
Bet recommendation: Under