Reason for optimism: Trading off stars from a sub-.500 team in order to contend two years down the road is a sound organizational strategy.
Reason for pessimism: "Gonzalez, Quintana and a storm mañana" isn't the best of rotation strategies.
And the winner of the 2017 "and Peggy" franchise award goes to ... the Chicago White Sox.
So named for the internet meme from the musical "Hamilton," the "and Peggy" designation can be awarded to the club most overlooked in its own home due to the outsized presence of a sister team. While the New York Mets get annual nominations for this award with Streep-like frequency, the White Sox are this year's forgotten franchise in their own backyard -- thanks to the Chicago Cubs and their first World Series title since what has felt like the time of Alexander Hamilton.
The White Sox aren't going to shed that status anytime soon, and not just because the Cubs appear primed for many years of World Series contention. Perhaps with a view toward the blueprint their North Side neighbors followed, the White Sox began a teardown of their own this winter. By dealing their best pitcher, Chris Sale, and last year's most productive everyday player, Adam Eaton (to the Red Sox and Nationals, respectively), for an impressive haul of prospects, Chicago abandoned its pursuit of the playoffs for at least this year. Teardowns and tanking are in no way unique these days, but not too many teams do it while coming off a third consecutive season of increasing win totals and with a pair of under-30 players who recently posted 6.0 WAR seasons (Eaton did so in 2016, Sale in 2015).
If the White Sox are playing for 2019 and beyond, you've got to figure the presence of Jose Abreu and Todd Frazier is problematic. The corner infielders for the White Sox are no longer surrounded with enough talent to push the team into playoff contention, and by 2019 or later, their production may suffer age-related effects. So Chicago is truly stuck in the middle this year, hoping some of its prospects will start contributing as soon as this summer. Yes, we're looking at you, Yoan Moncada and Lucas Giolito.
In the absence of Sale, what could have been a very interesting rotation has problems on the back end. Most notably, James Shields and Derek Holland are run-allowing black holes serving as placeholders until Giolito and others are ready. Only 11 starters who threw at least 100 innings last year recorded SIERAs above 5.00; Shields and Holland were two of them. Shields, it would seem, should be in the market for a new nickname. By giving up more earned runs in 2016 than any other pitcher in the majors, the right-hander once touted as "Big Game" James should really be going by the name "Big Inning" James.
The talent level of the bullpen is indicative of a team built to contend rather than tank, as last year they had a pretty formidable 7-8-9 trio in Dan Jennings, Nate Jones and David Robertson, all of whom return this season. The defense also achieved a big year-over-year jump in effectiveness last season; although Eaton certainly had a lot to do with that. With new, but unheralded faces scheduled to be in the starting lineup at catcher, second base and center field (as health allows) there is little to suggest this White Sox season will be memorable, cementing their "and Peggy" status.
I'm mildly disappointed in that organizational tact because, at full strength, they appeared to have the look of a legitimate dark horse. Now that's not the case, but of course, they have no expectations, either. After opening at a head-scratching win total of 73.5 in Reno, the Westgate set the market at 68.5, lowest in the American League and reflective of management's wishes, I suppose.
If you told me that the White Sox's Opening Day roster would be together on Labor Day, this would be my favorite "over" play in the American League. I've learned my lesson on that front, however, so this is going to be a pass for me. However, I'll be closely monitoring how the White Sox are priced on a daily basis in April. If oddsmakers want to offer the White Sox as a core 90-plus-loss team, I'm pretty certain I'll find value on them anytime Shields or Holland aren't on the mound.
2017 projection: 70-92 (fifth, AL Central)
Bet recommendation: Pass