Reason for optimism: Full seasons from Jonathan Lucroy, Shin-Soo Choo and Carlos Gomez, plus the addition of Mike Napoli, makes the Rangers much better than they were last year when they won 95 games.
Reason for pessimism: They could be a lot better than they were last year and still win significantly fewer games.
That's the same "reason for pessimism" as last year because, much to the delight of their fans and the irritation of the sabermetric community, the Rangers once again far outperformed their underlying production. Of course, these days you don't have to be a sabermetric devotee to know that when a team sets an all-time record for winning percentage in one-run games (36-11, .766) as the Rangers did last year, they're probably not as good as their final record suggests.
In fact, you can make a very strong case, once you adjust for cluster luck (+1 game) and Pythagorean luck (+13 games), that the Rangers merely played to the level of a .500 team last year -- not a team that had the best record in the majors at the 81-game mark (Cubs fans, that's not a misprint) or a team that had the No. 1 seed in the American League playoffs. That reality allowed for a measure of sweet redemption for data-inclined bettors when the Blue Jays, as +125 underdogs, knocked off the Rangers in the ALDS.
There are two historical comparisons that point to trouble for Texas.
I see the Rangers also winning eight fewer games this year -- but making the playoffs.
Texas may have had no business winning 95 games last season, but its front office is smart and used the currency of those "undeserved" wins early in the season to not only make the team stronger by season's end, but especially for this year. The bullpen with which they ended 2016, and the one that will break spring training this year, looks nothing like the unit that posted a 4.40 ERA last season.
The rotation is anchored by their two aces, Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish. While that's a fantastic start, the truth is that the unimpressive back end of the rotation is why I can't see Texas challenging Houston for the division. I don't like the Rangers' signing of Andrew Cashner one bit, but all he has to do is post an ERA below 5.00 to improve on the departed Derek Holland.
While the rotation may have holes three days out of five, the starting lineup has the potential to outslug opponents on a daily basis. With the Mitch Moreland era at first base mercifully over -- he perennially provided below-average production from the most important offensive position on the field -- there isn't a single position in the lineup I'm certain will perform at a below-average level. (I'm a believer in Joey Gallo at DH until 350 plate appearances prove otherwise. Your mileage may vary.) That makes the Rangers a threat to score 800 runs and, if they do, to easily finish above .500.
Finishing above .500 would put "over" bettors on solid footing thanks to a total wins market of 84.5 that sits just one win higher than last year's mark. I missed on Texas last year, but I like this year's roster quite a bit. You won't see me on many overs in the American League thanks to collectively inflated win totals across the league, but the Rangers have my support.
2017 projection: 87-75 (second, AL West)
Bet recommendation: Over