Reason for optimism: A lot seemed to go wrong for the Mets in 2016, and it still took the unlikely combination of Conor Gillaspie and magic to prevent a Mets-Cubs rematch in October.
Reason for pessimism: Thanks to Matt Harvey's disastrous 2016, and injury scares to Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz, the window of success will never feel like it's open wide enough.
Last year, in an effort to shed a bit of light on how valuable the Mets' spectacularly talented quartet of starting pitchers was, I opined that for a seven-year period beginning in 2017, Harvey, Matz, deGrom and Noah Syndergaard would provide contract value in terms of WAR over those 28 player-years to the tune of $1 billion. To get there the rotation would need to average 14 WAR a year for seven years and, despite the abbreviated seasons from deGrom, Matz and Harvey per fWAR, they actually got there in 2016. However, the injury scares certainly underscore the perils of investing in young arms.
As Joe Sheehan says, "There's no such thing as a healthy pitcher. There are pitchers who have been healthy, and the next pitch."
If the Mets' starters miss starts because of injury this year, they won't have their durable folk hero, Bartolo Colon, around to eat innings. Last season, Colon made 33 starts for the first time since 2004 -- when he was a veteran pitcher for the Angels -- and posted his lowest ERA in three seasons with the Mets. In theory, his 3.43 ERA will be hard to replace in the form of a collection of starts from the duo of Zach Wheeler and Robert Gsellman but if there are runs lost on the margin there, the upside to offset them will almost certainly come from a more effective Harvey. Even if recovery from his surgery doesn't allow him to provide that improvement, any fill-in pitcher who doesn't allow nearly five earned runs every nine innings, as Harvey did last year, would do the trick.
With a solid bullpen -- pending possible disciplinary action for closer Jeurys Familia -- if New York really wants to reduce its runs allowed to a level that matches the sub-600 runs potential of the rotation, the Mets have to play better defense. The Mets have been essentially an average defensive unit, but fell all the way to 26th in my adjusted defensive efficiency rankings in 2016, costing the team more than 20 runs compared to an average defensive squad. And this was after shedding 2015 World Series defensive goat Daniel Murphy.
For all of the above talk about the run suppression side of the ledger though, there is still enough raw talent in the rotation to keep the runs allowed for the season in the low 600s just like they did the last two seasons, and cruise to a playoff berth in the process. The difference between the division- (and ultimately pennant-) winning squad of 2015 and the wild-card entrant of 2016 comes down entirely to runs scored. The Washington Nationals (New York's sole rival for division supremacy), outscored New York by 90 runs last year, in no small part because Murphy took his offensive contributions away from the Mets and provided them, in the form of a career year, to the Nats. Fortunately for the Mets, their offense was materially better than the raw run total they produced for the year, and the culprit was cluster luck.
They've also got Jay Bruce, Jose Reyes and hopefully a healthy Lucas Duda for an entire year. While the maddening indecision surrounding Michael Conforto's playing time reminds me of the ridiculous ordeal Brandon Belt went through before securing full-time duty in the Giants lineup, the combination of the four of them replaces a season's worth of below-replacement level production from the now departed James Loney and Alejandro De Aza. David Wright's status is uncertain, but when available the Mets have 10 regulars all capable of posting league-average numbers as a production floor. All it takes is a breakout season or two from any one of them and this has the potential to be a sneaky good offense.
For a barometer of how the offense is performing, keep an eye on their production on the road. In 2015, when the run suppressing element of Citi Field was removed, the Mets were the highest-scoring team in the National League and that hidden factor is what made New York such an underpriced asset in the postseason. Last year, they were 12th in the NL in road scoring, nestled between the anemic offenses of the Padres and the Phillies.
I'm quite a bit more bullish on the Mets this season compared to last, and a good bit of that is the result of the Marlins no longer being a credible threat to challenge both the Mets and the Nationals in the NL East this season. Expectations are a bit lower as well, as this year's total wins market is a game-and-a-half lower than last year's.
Still, at a market of 88 wins, this is a pass for me. I see them winning more but the uncertainty around the health and durability of the rotation limits the ability to make a play. If you tell me Harvey will return to form, there's considerable upside to their outlook and the Mets could find themselves locked in a classic division battle to secure home-field advantage for a round or two of the NL playoffs.
2017 projection: 88-74 (second, NL East)
Bet recommendation: Pass