Reason for optimism: Despite the mass exodus of talent since the glory days of 2011, the Brewers have remained competitive.
Reason for pessimism: If the means to achieve a repeat of those glory days in the intermediate future is by tanking, a respectable performance in the NL Central represents poor execution.
With Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy and Jonathan Villar all playing materially above-average baseball in 2016, aided by Chris Carter's National League-leading 41 home runs and a surprisingly effective bullpen (6th in NL ERA), the Milwaukee Brewers' attempt at a tear-down tank job fell short.
The front office, of course, actively moved to correct one of those impediments by trading Lucroy to Texas at the trade deadline, but on offense at least, it looks like it's going to be just good enough to be respectable again.
The most interesting roster change during the offseason occurred at a position that's been unstable since Prince Fielder left via free agency before the 2012 season. First basemen cycle through Milwaukee like Defense Against the Dark Arts professors at Hogwarts, and this year, the Brewers are trying another experiment, despite the home run crown Carter earned last year. Eric Thames returns to the majors for the first time since posting sub-replacement level numbers in 2012 for the Blue Jays and the Mariners. That would truly look like an intentional tank at the most important offensive position on the field except for the fact that in 2013, Thames went to South Korea and turned into Lou Gehrig.
PECOTA hates the move, but other projection systems are more favorable, and some of the drag on Thames' performance from his last stint in the majors results from his ineffective defensive skills in the outfield. He's certainly one of the more interesting stories to watch, especially for fantasy purposes.
If the offense turns out to be better this year by finding a gem in Thames, discovering the catcher of the future in once highly regarded Giants prospect Andrew Susac and getting more above-average performance from Braun and Villar, is there a chance they can get to .500 ball? Almost positively not, thanks to the near-certain bullpen regression. And that's why the Brewers, in the age of professional sports tanking, are more or less stuck in baseball's no-man's land.
Their bullpen may have sported a mid-3.00s ERA, but they had 4.00 skill sets, and in any event, the best of the bunch are no longer with the team. Closers Tyler Thornburg (2.15 ERA in 67 IP) and Jeremy Jeffress (2.22 ERA in 45 IP before moving to Texas in the Lucroy deal) combined for 40 saves and represent 112 innings of elite performance, which will need replacing.
Milwaukee is hoping new closer Neftali Feliz's and Joba Chamberlain's one-year resurgences with the Pirates and Indians, respectively, are more indicative than their performances the four years prior, which would seem more wish-casting than forecasting.
In any event, even if the bullpen does regress, it won't be the real problem. The Brewers don't have a starting pitcher who you can confidently say will post an ERA below 4.00, and I could see things being much, much worse than that by the time the season's completed. For as long as I can recall, I've been complaining about the Minnesota Twins' perennial use of low-strikeout starting pitchers in a league where run suppression is defined more and more by rising strikeout rates, but it looks like the Brewers are a candidate this year to supplant the Twins for the rotation ranked dead last in strikeout rate.
Just like last year, the Brewers appear caught in the middle of the tear-down management desires and a just-talented-enough roster that will keep them out of the NL Central cellar without any real hope of reaching .500. That could change with an in-season trade of Braun, but with $72 million over four years left on his contract and his days of playing to the level of a 6.0 WAR player seemingly permanently in his past, it's questionable how much of a prospect haul Milwaukee could even get.
Vegas also sees a team with an outlook very similar to last year's. Breaking a streak of five consecutive years with a total wins market lower than what it was the year before, the Brewers' market this year opened at 69.5 -- where it closed last year. The over made some sense last year, but with the possibly horrendous starting pitching, a regressing bullpen and 57 games against three division foes clearly better than them, I see far more "under" scenarios than not. Still, my model likes the offense just enough to make it a pass for me.
2017 projection: 71-91 (fourth, NL Central)
Bet recommendation: Pass