Reason for optimism: Homegrown rotation talent on the Opening Day roster corrects the glaring weakness that resulted in an aberration last year. It's not a trend.
Reason for pessimism: That sound you heard was the window slamming shut on the Andrew McCutchen-era Pirates playoff appearances.
Entering the 2016 season, the Pittsburgh Pirates were the only team in baseball to have won more games than the previous season for five consecutive years. They also had a matching five-for-five streak in going "over" their season win total during that time. Still, despite the squad coming off 98 wins and a third-straight playoff appearance in 2015, one preview from last season read, "If the surge in runs allowed that I foresee (occurs), the Pirates might turn out to be a very surprising under-.500 team."
To quote from the blockbuster musical "Hamilton": "These are wise words, enterprising men quote 'em. Don't act surprised you guys, 'cause I wrote 'em."
Yes, I'm reliving that call and taking a self-directed bow because it was a near-perfect projection in terms of components. It's also instructive when looking at Pittsburgh's 2017 outlook.
The 2016 offense actually improved year over year, which really wasn't a surprise, even though the 2015 team won 98 games. There is virtually no change to the Pirates' lineup this year, although the bench loses veterans Matt Joyce and Sean Rodriguez.
Right fielder McCutchen's on-base percentage took a worrisome dive last year, after four straight years of getting on base more than four out of 10 times. The decline was driven in part by a lower walk rate, but mostly by a plunge in BABIP (batting average on balls in play). Combined with a complete lack of stolen base attempts, it's possible McCutchen's decline could be permanent. Still, he slugged more than 20 home runs, and at the age of 30, the 2016 season could just be a dip and not a decline.
He is moving to right field, though, which leads us to a discussion of defense. Pittsburgh rose to playoff contender and broke its long streak of losing seasons on the strength of one of the best defenses in the majors in 2013 and 2014, as the team's front office got in front of the defensive shift trend. (This is all chronicled nicely in the underrated book, "Big Data Baseball.")
Despite the stellar 2015 win total, there were signs the defense had dropped off significantly, and it continued last year with a 25th place ranking in my adjusted defensive efficiency calculations. Statcast data was particularly unkind to McCutchen's work in center field, so management engineered an entire shift in the outfield with McCutchen moving to right, Starling Marte sliding over from left to center and Gregory Polanco moving from right field to left. Hopefully for fans of the Pirates, management's proactive and assertive moves restore the team to an above-average defense.
The true source of the Pirates' downfall last year could be found on the pitcher's mound.
Pittsburgh's coaching staff had a remarkable streak of success turning other team's castoffs into productive starters, but it got cocky thinking it could pull off the feat last year with the likes of Jonathon Niese and Ryan Vogelsong. As predicted here, it was a disaster, with the two of them providing 32 starts worth of 5.00 ERA production. This year's staff has far fewer red flags, as it's much more likely Ivan Nova and Drew Hutchison find success in the Pirates' rotation than did Niese and Vogelsong. In addition, there's upside if homegrown talents Jameson Taillon, Chad Kuhl and Tyler Glasnow can approach even some of the success staff ace Gerrit Cole achieved once he got a full season's worth of starts under his belt.
If 2016 did start a trend that sends the Pirates back to their under-.500 ways, the most likely culprit (other than season-ending injuries to key offensive contributors) will be the bullpen. For all the analytic prowess of the front office, they've never embraced the benefits of a bullpen filled with high-strikeout arms. The team's relievers have never finished above league average in K-percentage since they emerged as a playoff team in 2013.
That could improve this year if the innings are allocated more in favor of Juan Nicasio and Felipe Rivero, but Neftali Feliz and former closer Mark Melancon contributed 95 innings of work that actually helped raise the K-percentage rate last year. Tony Watson, who took over the closer role when the Pirates traded Melancon to the Nationals at the trade deadline, has a notably low strikeout rate over the last two seasons of 21.2 percent. In an era when top closers easily strike out more than one-third of batters faced -- MLB relievers with double-digit saves last year struck out 1.13 batters per inning -- Watson managed only a 0.85 rate.
By crashing back to the world of sub-.500 teams, the Pirates are being overlooked as a playoff threat in 2017, and oddsmakers seem to be saying there's a seven-team race in the National League for the six playoff spots. With a market of just 82 wins, the implication is that last year's Pirates (who got outscored by 29 runs) are more indicative of the future than the three-time playoff team that averaged a plus-70 run differential from 2014 to 2016.
Last year's weaknesses were plain to see before the season started, and the "under" bet was an easy cash. With a much younger and more promising stable of arms filling out the rotation this year, I'll enthusiastically switch sides.
2017 projection: 85-77 (third, NL Central)
Bet recommendation: Over