Reason for optimism: Thanks to the removal of below-below-replacement performers in the rotation, there's going to be a big improvement in runs allowed.
Reason for pessimism: If Mike Trout plays at the level of merely a 7.0 WAR superstar, there's probably little chance the Angels can play .500 ball.
In 2015, the Angels weren't nearly as good as their final record, as the foundation for their 85 wins that year was built on the unlikely feat of finishing 18 games over .500 in one-run contests. That's almost never a persistent trait (Texas Rangers fans, consult your preview) and, sure enough, the Angels went 17-20 last year in such close affairs en route to winning just 74 games -- their worst season in the Mike Scioscia era, which began in 2000.
Sabermetric principles tell us a team made up entirely of replacement players would win about 50 games in a season, so 74 wins is a pretty disappointing result for a team which annually gets about 10 WAR from one player -- Mike Trout.
In summary, if the Angels got exactly the same offensive production this year as last, I'd expect them to score 32 fewer runs and if their pitchers allowed the exact same results, I'd expect 51 more runs allowed. Put it all together, plus-83 runs in cluster luck, less the unfortunate Pythagorean results, and I see a 71-win team before considering 2017 changes.
Fortunately, those changes materially improve the Angels this year. The Angels got 68 starts last year from pitchers who finished the season with an ERA of 4.97 or worse. Collectively those arms had a 5.82 ERA -- and every single one of them has been purged from the roster. (Two of them are in competition to start Opening Day for the San Diego Padres, believe it or not.) With a healthy Garrett Richards anchoring the rotation, there should be a huge reduction in runs allowed in 2017.
Both the bullpen and defense were a bit above average last year, so there's no reason to expect run suppression improvement in those categories. In fact, the bullpen's collective skill set suggests an ERA about one-third of a run higher, but some turnover among those arms might be enough to thwart any negative regression.
While an improved rotation will certainly help improve the team from its 71-win talent of 2016, if Los Angeles has any hopes of winning its first playoff game in the Trout era, it's going to need to score more runs. That's something Trout can't possibly help with, and it's downright scary to think how much more of a hole the Angels would be in if he simply performs at a 7.0 WAR level for a season. Rather than ask Trout to pull even more weight, the Angels attempted to take the same approach with the lineup that they took with the rotation, but the low-hanging fruit on this tree wasn't nearly as rotten.
Still, the Angels are hoping that new faces at catcher, second base and left field do the trick. I'm with them in left field where Los Angeles got something similar to traditional shortstop offensive production from the nine different players that took at-bats last season in a corner outfield spot that's expected to generate a lot more offense than that. Cameron Maybin is still under 30, despite being a tantalizing prospect who made his MLB debut a decade ago, and will be tasked with the improved production.
I have no doubt the Angels will allow fewer runs this year, and my model sees a mild degree of runs scored improvement as well. However, I suspect I'm starting at a lower base than others, so while I see a skill improvement that could approach a 100-run improvement in run differential, that only converts to an actual improvement of six wins. That gets me to 80 wins, which was within a half-game of the Vegas opening market. There's been little movement since, so this is a pass for me.
2017 projection: 80-82 (fourth, AL West)
Bet recommendation: Pass