Reason for optimism: The offense outscored nine different teams last season -- including the New York Yankees!
Reason for pessimism: It was all a cluster luck-driven mirage.
And you thought Brock Osweiler got lucky in 2016. Last year, the San Diego Padres continued their multiyear offensive ineptitude by finishing last in the majors in both batting average and on-base percentage for the third year running. Of course, those two readings only measure the frequency of getting on base and by which manner; they don't distinguish between singles and, say, home runs. Unfortunately, slugging percentage does, and the Padres finished 28th in that category. That's 30th, 30th and 28th in three categories that go a very long way to accurately predict a team's run production. Yet the Padres finished 21st in runs scored.
Their component skills profiled very similarly to those of the Phillies, but they outscored Philadelphia by 76 runs. Washington outscored San Diego by 77 runs, and I assure you the Nationals' offense was orders of magnitude better as compared to San Diego's than the Padres' offense was as compared to the Phillies'.
All that luck still relegated the Padres to the worst record in the National League (tied with the Cincinnati Reds), because they weren't very good at preventing runs. Despite the benefits of playing in a pitcher-friendly stadium for half of their games, the starters ranked 21st in ERA, the relievers 23rd and the defense was 19th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
With the exception of workhorse Brad Hand (2.92 ERA), who threw more innings in relief (89.1) than any other pitcher in the majors last season, and Ryan Buchter (2.86 ERA) -- both of whom were highly effective and skilled -- nearly the rest of the bullpen has turned over, which could be considered a bright spot. There is sizable turnover in the rotation, as well, but it wouldn't surprise me if Padres fans are longing for the return of the Andrew Cashner era by year's end.
Cashner, Padres fans skeptically point out, had a 4.47 ERA over his last two seasons in San Diego before the Padres shipped him to the Miami Marlins last summer in a deadline deal. That wouldn't seem like the stuff of nostalgia, but just wait until Padres fans deal with a season's worth of starts from Jered Weaver. Of the 144 starting pitchers who threw at least 80 innings last season -- and this includes some doozies, including Mike Pelfrey (5.19 ERA), Matt Cain (5.81 ERA) and James Shields (5.85 ERA) -- Weaver had the worst skill set in terms of expected ERA of all 144, clocking in with a 5.44 SIERA. And he's a leading candidate to be the Padres' Opening Day starter.
His competition? Jhoulys Chacin, 28th worst on that same list. Even more so than the Milwaukee Brewers and the Marlins, the Padres will most likely not have a single starter with an ERA below 4.00 by season's end.
Beyond fortunate sequencing of their hits, the Padres did have a couple of bright spots last season on which to build.
Wil Myers finally lived up to his one-time billing as the top-hitting prospect in baseball and thrilled fantasy owners with a late-round bonanza of 28 home runs and 28 stolen bases. Yangervis Solarte followed up on earlier streaks of promise with his best season, as well. With both on the happy side of 30 years old, San Diego has a solid pair of corner infielders to build around. Finally, it took Ryan Schimpf a long time to get to the majors, but at age 28, he made the most of his midseason call-up last season, swatting 20 home runs in 276 at bats. However, he struck out in nearly one-third of his plate appearances, and since you don't see teams clamoring to sign Dan Uggla, Schimpf probably isn't a long-term solution at second base.
Two years ago, the Padres "won the winter" by virtue of acquiring a bevy of recognizable players, and that fooled oddsmakers into pricing them as an 84-win team. When that squad only won 74 games in 2015, then shed most of those splashy signings before the 2016 season began, oddsmakers drastically reduced San Diego's wins market to 73.5 wins for 2016. But it still wasn't enough to keep pace with the declining fortunes of the team, which only won 68 games last season.
Apparently following the "won't get fooled again" playbook, Las Vegas opened the Padres this year at an MLB-low 67.5 wins. After two straight years of cashing laughably easy "under" tickets, I have finally been priced out of that game. The Padres are a terrible team, and they will offer the Phillies and/or Reds a formidable challenge for worst team in the league, but priced this low, it's a pass for me.
2017 projection: 67-95 (fifth, NL West)
Bet recommendation: Pass