Reason for optimism: The Dodgers have averaged 92 wins per season in winning four straight NL West titles, and even an injury to Clayton Kershaw didn't slow them down in 2016.
Reason for pessimism: Bullpen dominance is difficult to duplicate.
Dave Roberts' projected starting rotation for 2017 made 100 starts for the team last season. Those starts went fine, as the starters posted a sterling 3.16 ERA. In the other 62 games, however, the Dodgers got lit up, posting an ERA of 5.44, worse than the starting rotation of the Twins and the Diamondbacks and worse than (gasp!) the bullpen of the Cincinnati Reds. The fourth of four division banners doesn't have an asterisk on it, so many won't remember that the Dodgers were lucky to win the division last year.
It does, however, raise a crucial, cautionary question for 2017: How many starts do you think a rotation with Rich Hill (37 years old, no more than 100 IP in a season since 2007), Scott Kazmir (33 years old with declining skills) and a 20-year old with 15 career starts (Julio Urias) is going to make?
Los Angeles survived last year because the offense got younger and more potent in just the nick of time. The Dodgers scored the most runs in a season since 2009, and it's no coincidence they did so with their youngest lineup since 2008. Led by a player who looks like a perennial MVP candidate, 22-year-old Corey Seager, Los Angeles will also start a pair of 24-year olds, Joc Pederson and Andrew Toles. That's the cornerstone of the Dodgers' future to be sure, and it's an enviable trio to pair with the veteran bats of Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Turner and new everyday second baseman Logan Forsythe.
There are no notable problems with any of this. The defense has remained above-average for five years running without ever being spectacular, despite a ton of changes to the fielders, and that suggests effective scouting and tactical positioning. My complaint is simply one of expectations and, more importantly, what is priced into those expectations.
Can Turner really hit 27 home runs, as he did in 622 plate appearances at the age of 31, after hitting just 31 homers in his first 1,687 PAs? Toles has a great story, but he comes with a huge question mark. If Andre Ethier needs to play significant innings, does he have anything left in the tank after missing almost all of the past season?
Finally, there's the bullpen, which was in a somewhat hidden manner the true reason the Dodgers won the West last year. The relievers had the lowest ERA of any bullpen in the majors, which is impressive enough in its own right, but also pitched the most innings in the majors. Not only is that combination possibly a one-of-a-kind occurrence, but also 90-plus-win teams never lead the league in reliever innings pitched. Had the Royals done that -- they approached this level of bullpen reliance in 2015 -- it would have been the talk of baseball and, I suspect, therefore scoffed at by the sabermetric cognoscenti who hate Ned Yost. Last season, the Dodgers did "bullpenning" to a level never seen before, and it went unnoticed.
Like everything else mentioned above, there was nothing fake about that success. The bullpen is highly skilled, and its collective SIERA suggests that the collective ERA was deserved. My question is, given the historically volatile nature of year-to-year bullpen performance and given that no team with a winning record has ever had a bullpen throw as many innings as the Dodgers did last year, is it repeatable?
When you look at the Dodgers' total wins market of 94.5, you have to come to the conclusion that every one of the questions I asked above will be answered with a positive response by season's end. I just don't see it that way, given typical bullpen regression, some career years on offense in 2016 and the injury history/age of the rotation. A fifth straight AL West crown for the Dodgers is logical, but when an asset is priced for perfection, I'd much rather be a seller than a buyer.
Put me down for a Giants division crown in 2017, and stamp an "under" ticket for the Dodgers' win total.
2017 projection: 91-71 (second, NL West)
Bet recommendation: Under