Reason for optimism: A proposed change in ownership might actually result in a front office that cares about the marginal win more than the marginal dollar.
Reason for pessimism: Much of their problems over the last decade and longer were self-inflicted, but as the tragic event of September 25, 2016, shows, it does feel like there's a cloud over the franchise.
This preview isn't very much fun to write this year. Last year, I had more enthusiasm accompanying my view on Miami's projection than any other team. The Marlins "over" call was my highest conviction pick in the league. Viewing the "over" as a foregone conclusion, I stood convinced the Marlins would be in a surprise playoff battle right down to the end of the season. So how did it turn out?
Howard Marks, a revered investor, likes to say there's no such thing as a good or bad investment without reference to price. That certainly was the case with the Marlins call last year.
Much went wrong: MLB suspended Dee Gordon for half the season for a PED violation; free-agent signing Wei-Yen Chan had, by far, the worst year of his career while posting a 4.96 ERA; and the back end of the rotation got 36 starts from a trio of pitchers whose best performer recorded a 5.48 ERA. Predictably, yet another team bore the scars of the latest installment of the Fernando Rodney Experience (5.89 ERA with Miami.) Finally, the team didn't even play all of its games, the bane of "over" bettors.
Yet the "over" still cashed, underscoring how a margin of safety in pricing truly provides the value in an investment. This year, market expectations are similar, but the team's outlook in no way has the upside of last year's squad. That's due, of course, to the death of ace Jose Fernandez just as last season was coming to a close.
His absence creates a huge hole in the pitching staff, as Chen is now the No. 1 starter, but in name only. Jeff Locke, Dan Straily and Edinson Volquez are all new additions meant to fortify the rotation, but when you look at their skill sets, along with those of returning fifth starter Tom Koehler, you realize that Chen is the only starter with a realistic chance of ending the season with an ERA below 4.00. Chen has zero competition for the staff "ace" label.
This is a bad rotation that has the chance to have the ignominious distinction of posting the highest walk rate in the National League while finishing last in strikeout rate. The Houston Astros pulled off the double in 2013 when they moved to the American League, although they narrowly missed leading the majors in both categories, finishing 29th in strikeout rate, so I suppose the Marlins have something to shoot for.
The bullpen was a bright spot last season, as the four relievers with the most innings pitched all had sub-2.00 ERAs. And they all return this year. From a skill set perspective, they aren't quite that good, and the defense that backs them has never been better than league average, which means some regression should be expected in 2017. However, the addition of free agent Brad Ziegler and his lifetime sub-3.00 ERA to the pen is an unquestioned asset.
The existence of the substandard rotation is a shame, and not just because of the unfortunate factors that led to its assembly. It's a shame because despite their ranking of 27th among MLB teams in runs scored last year, Miami still possess one of the most exciting collections of young talent in the game. Outside of Boston, I would take Miami's outfield over every other team's, not as building blocks for the future, but to go to battle with this year; and yes, that includes the Mike Trout-led unit in Anaheim. Christian Yelich emerged as a true superstar last year, and in his age-25 season, he is absolutely capable of posting a .300/.400/.500 season. Giancarlo Stanton barely outslugged Yelich last season (.489 to .483), and all Stanton did was hit 27 home runs in 413 at bats. Anchoring the outfield in center, Marcell Ozuna hit 23 home runs himself. The combined age of this trio is 78. They hit 71 home runs last season, and I look for their combined home runs to exceed their ages this year.
With two more 20-something talents in first baseman Justin Bour and catcher J.T. Realmuto, all Gordon has to do is get on base at the rate he did prior to his PED suspension and the Marlins will become the leading candidate to have the largest increase in year-over-year runs scored. I love the potential of this offense on a team no one thinks is going to finish at .500, which, in all fairness, the franchise hasn't done since 2009.
They're probably not going to do it this year, either, because the rotation is sure to allow runs as fast as the offense is scoring them. Because of all the young talent and the suppressed expectations, if I had to bet it, I'd take the over.
However, there's a larger, organizational reason that this is a pass. Young talent normally serves as building blocks for the future, but with this franchise, it has more often than not been the catalyst for roster teardowns. Miami has some very desirable under-30 talent on team-friendly contracts (Stanton) or on the cusp of starting to make serious money. Don't put it past this front office, even if a change of ownership appears possible, to foil "over" bettors with a midseason purge of talent. I think your money is better invested elsewhere in the division with the team I think might relegate the Marlins to a fourth-place finish.
2017 projection: 79-83 (tie-third, NL East)
Bet recommendation: Pass