Reason for optimism: This was an exciting and proficient team the last third of the season.
Reason for pessimism: Upside is relative, and this is still a team using veteran placeholders to keep a product on the field.
I went 16-5 on my MLB over/under win totals last year, and I deserved every one of the five losses. While a handful of the 16 wins needed to be nursed to the finish line, in general, they all had positive expected value for the majority of the season -- except one.
In "bad beat" fashion that would qualify for a segment on Scott Van Pelt's SportsCenter, under bettors watched the Atlanta Braves go 12-2 in their last 14 games to clinch the "over" 67.5 total wins on the last day of the season. That included the gift, for under bettors, of a canceled game during the stretch run.
One hundred games into the season, Atlanta was on pace to win 55 games. The Braves then went 34-27 the rest of the way, tied for third-best in the National League, en route to winning as many games in their last 61 as they did in their first 100.
If this were the NFL and a team finished like that over its last six games, everyone would be pegging them as a sleeper team the next year, and there would be reader demand for a 3,000-word, Bill Barnwell think piece. Does that make the Braves a sexy pick to continue last year's momentum and surprise this year?
The answer, I think, is going to surprise you.