If you're looking to bet on the NCAA tournament, here's everything you need to know.
ESPN Chalk handicappers Dave Tuley and Andrew Lange analyze all 16 NCAA tournament first-round games taking place on Friday.
Favorites won 14 of the 16 games played Thursday, but underdogs ended up going 9-7 ATS against the closing lines in Vegas after faves/'dogs went 4-4 ATS in the two late windows of games. Overs ended up 9-6-1 (60 percent) on the day after going 5-2-1 in the night sessions.
If you're looking for more analysis, be sure to check out PickCenter, which has projections on every NCAA tournament game, and the Chalk home page.
Best bets are marked with an asterisk.
Lines are from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Tuesday morning. All times are Eastern.
Jump to region: East | South | Midwest
East Regional
No. 10 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 7 South Carolina Gamecocks (-1)
Friday, 9:50 p.m., Greenville, South Carolina
PickCenter consensus pick: 60 percent pick Marquette
Over/under: 147.5
Lange: Did South Carolina peak too soon? The Gamecocks raced out to a 19-4 start and 9-1 mark in SEC play, but looked worn down the last month of the season. They lost five of eight and managed to cover only one point spread during that span.
Marquette is trying to do one thing and one thing only: outscore teams.
South Carolina, which will be playing 100 miles from campus in Greenville, really sells out to defend the 3-point shot; opponents made just 30 percent of their attempts. Marquette, meanwhile, not only took a ton of 3s but also made an NCAA-best 43 percent. Small lean toward South Carolina, which should be able to limit Marquette's ability to shot from the outside.
The pick: lean South Carolina
No. 11 USC Trojans vs. No. 6 SMU Mustangs (-6.5)
Friday, 3:10 p.m., Tulsa, Oklahoma
Over/under: 139.5
Tuley's take: USC earned its spot in the NCAA field by rallying from a 17-point, second-half deficit to beat Providence 75-71 in a First Four game in Dayton, Ohio. This is nothing new as the Trojans have rallied from double-digit deficits 12 times this season, most in the nation.
I'm fully aware of how good SMU is -- I have them going to the Sweet 16 in most of my brackets and winning this game in 90 percent of my brackets -- but when it comes to betting the game I'm taking USC with the points. The key is putting two halves together, as I wouldn't want to count on the Trojans rallying from a big deficit to get in the back door (though it's nice to know they're capable of it). The Trojans also have the advantage of being a team playing with house money, one some people think shouldn't have even made it into the field. We've seen similar runs with VCU in 2011 and Syracuse last year, to name a few. And lastly, USC actually defeated this SMU team (78-73 back in November) so I have to believe the Trojans don't see themselves as the underdogs.
Even though SMU was the stronger team throughout the season, I still can't see this being a rout.
The pick: USC +6.5*
No. 14 New Mexico State Aggies vs. No. 3 Baylor Bears (-12.5)
Friday, 12:40 p.m., Tulsa
PickCenter consensus pick: 62 percent pick New Mexico State
Over/under: 135
Tuley's take: This Baylor team comes in as a No. 3 seed, but it certainly hasn't looked like one lately and nowhere near the team that was No. 1 in the AP poll in January. Instead, the Bears went 3-4 SU down the stretch and were knocked out of the Big 12 tourney by bubble team Kansas State. It looks like Johnathan Motley (17.5 PPG, 10 RPG) will be able to go for Baylor after injuring a finger last week, but the Bears look more like a No. 5 or No. 6 seed. This makes me like the fact we're getting so many points with a New Mexico State team that knows how to win (28-5 SU and 3-2 ATS).
Yes, the Aggies' level of competition is far worse in the WAC and they didn't face any power conference teams, but we've seen over the years that doesn't always matter. Ian Baker was the WAC player of the year and this is his chance to show he can play with the big boys. New Mexico State hits the glass hard and should have success with second-chance opportunities on the offensive end and keeping Baylor from the same. If Baylor isn't careful, the Bears could make another early exit -- and even if they prevail, I like the Aggies to make them work for it.
The pick: New Mexico State +12.5*
No. 15 Troy Trojans vs. No. 2 Duke Blue Devils (-19)
Friday, 7:20 p.m., Greenville
PickCenter consensus pick: 51 percent pick Troy
Over/under: 153
Lange: A quick look back at Duke's performance against non-power-conference teams shows that all eight lined games went under the total. Against power conference foes, the Blue Devils went 17-9 over/under. I think that dichotomy is a good example of how the "big favorite and high total" profile can be a profitable one to bet the under (the average point spread and total in those eight games was Duke -26 and 152). Lack of fouls and thus free throws, as well as the favorite working more clock than usual late in the game, are generally two contributing factors.
There's no guarantee, however, that Duke can "name the score" in this matchup. Troy is probably closer to a 14th seed in terms of ability and showed as much in an 82-77 loss at Southern California in December in which it led by as many as 10 in the second half. But one performance doesn't shake the reality that the Blue Devils will have advantages at every position and should pull away at some point. And for all the flak I give Duke's defense, in those eight aforementioned nonconference games that went under the total, the Blue Devils allowed only 56.8 points per game.
The pick: under 153
Midwest Regional
No. 14 Iona Gaels vs. No. 3 Oregon Ducks (-15)
Friday, 2 p.m., Sacramento
PickCenter consensus pick: 51 percent pick Iona
Over/under: 151.5
Tuley's take: I'm on several double-digit underdogs in the first round, but I just can't get myself to pull the trigger on Iona. The Gaels are a team that can light it up from 3-point territory (ranked 13th in the nation at 39.7 percent) and put a scare into the Ducks. Oregon is known as being a high-scoring team at 78.7 points per game, but Iona averages even more at 80.5. The Gaels aren't as strong on defense, allowing 78.7 PPG compared to 65.4 for the Ducks, but Oregon is also without big man Chris Boucher protecting the rim.
All of that has me looking to the over instead, because while Iona might get its points, I don't see the Gaels stopping Oregon guard Dillon Brooks from taking over the game if needed. Iona might be the right side (and the NCAA Vegas Rankings has this line at 13), but I can see Oregon getting on a roll and opening up a big lead. I'd feel more comfortable in cheering for Iona to be shooting 3s to put the game over the total as opposed to needing them to stop Brooks & Co. to get in the back door.
The pick: lean to over 151.5
No. 11 Rhode Island Rams vs. No. 6 Creighton Bluejays (-1)
Friday, 4:30 p.m., Sacramento
PickCenter consensus pick: 67 percent pick Rhode Island
Over/under: 141.5
Tuley's take: We watched Rhode Island a lot lately as one of the teams on the bubble and all they did was finish the season with eight straight wins (6-2 ATS) on the way to winning the Atlantic-10 tournament. Rhode Island's offense, led by E.C. Matthews, has started to jell down the stretch, but the Rams win with defense as Hassan Martin defends the rim and the guards apply pressure at the 3-point arc. They were only on the bubble because they had to overcome multiple injuries earlier in the season, but now that they're healthy they look like a No. 6 seed (like the Cincinnati team they beat back in November when they were healthy).
Creighton started the season 18-1 until losing point guard Maurice Watson, and the Bluejays are only 7-8 since and look more like a bubble team than Rhode Island. Regardless, since it's a 6-11 matchup -- and not as egregious of a mis-seeding as Wichita State -- the bookmakers at the South Point opened Creighton -3 with most other books going with -1.5. Our NCAA Vegas Rankings have Rhode Island -0.5 and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a change of favorites here. I usually prefer to be contrarian, but I really feel we're on the right side with the Rams here.
The pick: Rhode Island +1*
No. 16 UC Davis Aggies vs. No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks (-23.5)
Friday, 6:50 p.m., Tulsa, Oklahoma
Over/under: 145.5
Tuley's take: UC Davis, considered by some to be the worst team in the NCAA field, advanced into the main 64-team field with a 67-63 victory over fellow No. 16 seed North Carolina Central in a First Four game Wednesday night in Dayton, Ohio. The bad news is the Aggies now have to face Midwest No. 1 seed Kansas. UC Davis mostly outplayed NC Central, but it's doubtful that Kansas will miss as many layups as the Eagles did. The Jayhawks should have a field day in the paint and I don't expect this to be close, or for the back door to be open as UC Davis doesn't have the 3-point shooters to come from behind.
I'm certainly not going to lay 23.5 points (even though it looks like the right side) and will look to the total. As stated, this should be a blowout with Kansas coasting to victory. As long as UC Davis doesn't keep within a dozen points or so, there shouldn't be a foul-fest at the end of the game to push the game over. The only concern is that Kansas might put up too many points early, causing the game to go over anyway.
The pick: lean to under 145.5
No. 9 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 8 Miami (FL) Hurricanes (-2)
Friday, 9:20 p.m., Tulsa
PickCenter consensus pick: 57 percent pick Miami
Over/under: 125.5
Tuley's take: Like most 8-9 matchups, this is a pretty evenly matched game with both teams having their issues. Tom Izzo has the reputation of having his team peak in March (except last year when the Spartans lost as a No. 2 seed to No. 15 Middle Tennessee State) and his skills will be put to the test with his inconsistent team this year. Miami has also had an up-and-down season and I can't choose a side (though I would lean to the Hurricanes). However, if you were following along in our conference tournament betting guide last week, you probably remember my colleague Andrew Lange being on the under in both of the Hurricanes' ACC games (and winning both comfortably).
In fact, the 'Canes are an impressive 20-9-1 with the under on the season, including six straight, and are No. 20 in the defensive efficiency ratings at kenpom.com. Michigan State, even in a down year, is No. 34 in defensive efficiency and has gone under in three straight games. Granted, this over/under is the lowest of the first-round totals posted so far, but I believe it's still a case of the oddsmakers not being able to set it low enough.
The pick: under 125.5*
No. 10 Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. No. 7 Michigan Wolverines (-2.5)
Friday, 12:15 p.m., Indianapolis
Current total: 153.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 53 percent pick Michigan
Lange: There isn't a first-round matchup that will feature more perimeter-scoring threats. Michigan and Oklahoma State have a combined five players who have attempted more than 100 3-pointers and hit at better than 40 percent.
After ditching the high pressure, in-your-face tactics, the Cowboys put together a few solid defensive performances. But this young group looked taxed down the stretch as they surrendered 86, 90 and 92 points the last three games of the season. It was a similar situation with the Wolverines, who have improved defensively but finished near the bottom of the Big Ten in nearly every major statistical category. While holding Wisconsin and Illinois to less than 60 points shows ability, let's not forget that Michigan went to UCLA earlier this year and coughed up 102 points in a 64-possession game. The Bruins rank third nationally in offensive efficiency, while Oklahoma State ranks first.
Michigan's methodical half-court offense will keep this game from being a track meet, but there are just too many weapons for both sides for this game not to feature a lot of offense.
Pick: over 153.5
No. 15 Jacksonville State Gamecocks vs. No. 2 Louisville Cardinals (-20)
Friday, 2:45 p.m., Indianapolis
Current total: 134
PickCenter consensus pick: 55 percent pick Louisville
Lange: Jacksonville State head coach Ray Harper is as bright a mind as there is in college basketball. He took one of the worst programs in the OVC, got them to 20 wins and proceeded to take down the top two seeds in the conference tournament, including heavily-favored Belmont. The Gamecocks' secret was simple: Play sound defense and limit possessions.
It would be wise for Jacksonville to slow the pace in this game as well. Louisville has not fared well in low-possession games this season. Against Baylor, Virginia twice and Miami -- Louisville's four slowest games -- the Cardinals went 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. Louisville also struggled against plodding Old Dominion and needed overtime to win 68-62 as a 16.5-point favorite. If Jacksonville State is able to keep the possessions in the low 60s, covering 20 points won't be easy for the Cards.
It's hard to envision Jacksonville State having much success against one of the best defenses in the country. Coupled with a slow pace, the best option is perhaps to play the first half under the total.
The pick: first half under 62
South Regional
No. 16 Texas Southern Tigers vs. No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-27)
Friday, 4:00 p.m., Greenville
PickCenter consensus pick: 51 percent pick Texas Southern
Over/under: 154.5
Lange: The fact that Texas Southern faced four NCAA tournament teams during nonconference play is more important than the actual results. SWAC teams are notorious for needing to play "paycheck" road games that, because of class of opponent and road-weary legs, rarely lead to positive results. The Tigers didn't play a true home game until Jan. 14 and took on the likes of Arizona, Louisville, Cincinnati, TCU and Baylor. Those five losses came by an average of 30.8 points, but with time to prepare and a semi-neutral setting, it gives TSU a much better chance to compete.
Competing for 40 minutes, though, will be very difficult. The Tigers were nearly dead-even in rebounding margin in the very weak SWAC. They've also shown no ability to knock down 3s (30 percent), and their entire offense is predicated on offensive rebounds and trips to the free throw line. North Carolina controls the glass on both ends of the court about as well as anyone, meaning second-chance points for TSU will be hard to come by. And on the other end of the floor, the Tar Heels are likely to have a field day on the offensive glass. I'll look to play North Carolina in the first half.
The pick: North Carolina first half
No. 9 Seton Hall Pirates vs. No. 8 Arkansas Razorbacks (-1)
Friday, 1:30 p.m., Greenville
PickCenter consensus pick: 62 percent Seton Hall
Over/under: 147
Lange: There are three teams in the Big East that prefer to play up-tempo: Creighton, Marquette and St. John's. In Seton Hall's six games against those teams, the average score hit 153 points and all of them featured 70 possessions or more. The Pirates have shown the ability to win both slow- and fast-paced games, but the common theme is that the opposition often dictated tempo.
This was Arkansas coach Mike Anderson's slowest year since arriving in Fayetteville back in 2012. But "slowest" doesn't mean the Razorbacks are milking clock. They averaged 70 possessions per game in SEC play and are constantly attempting to speed up the game by pressing and extending their defense in the half court.
Despite a few angles that point toward this being a high-scoring game, my numbers, which I tend to shade toward the under in the postseason, actually make this contest 143.5. With the market currently at 147, I can only recommend the under.
The pick: Lean under 147
No. 11 Kansas State Wildcats vs. No. 6 Cincinnati Bearcats (-3.5)
Friday, 7:25 p.m. -- Sacramento
PickCenter consensus pick: 56 percent pick Kansas State
Over/under: 130.5
Tuley's take: Kansas State beat Wake Forest 95-88 in their First Four matchup Tuesday night in Dayton, Ohio, to earn a spot in the field of 64 against Cincinnati on Friday (note: usually the Tuesday First Four winners play again on Thursday, so this is unprecedented). The Wildcats shot 66 percent from the field with a mix of clutch 3-pointers and drives to the rim for layups or dunks; there were a lot of easy baskets, as they were 81 percent on 2-point field-goal attempts. Granted, they'll face a much better defense in Cincinnati, but it's clear that Kansas State is coming into this game with a lot of momentum, including making it in on the bubble with its victory over Baylor (a No. 3 NCAA seed) in the Big 12 tournament and only losing by one point to West Virginia.
Cincinnati, which has a better offense this year to go with its traditionally strong defense, also comes in playing well despite its loss to SMU in the American Athletic Conference title game. The Bearcats only had four regular-season losses but let those close games slip away late, while we just saw Kansas State really turn it on in the second half Tuesday night (shooting 70 percent). Most power ratings have Cincinnati as four points better than Kansas State, but most books opened at Cincy -3.5, shading it a little lower based on the Wildcats' recent improvement; I think it should be even a little lower.
The pick: Lean to Kansas State +3.5
No. 14 Kent State Golden Flashes vs. No. 3 UCLA Bruins (-18)
Friday, 9:55 p.m., Sacramento
PickCenter consensus pick: 61 percent pick UCLA
Over/under: 162
Tuley's take: Once upon a time (15 years ago, in 2002), Kent State was a Cinderella story, going all the way to the Elite Eight. This year's team won nine of its last 10 games, including the MAC championship, to punch its NCAA ticket, but hasn't had to face an offense like the one from UCLA. The Bruins are actually led in scoring by T.J. Leaf, but Lonzo Ball is the star player. I would normally look to fade an offense-only team like the Bruins, but I don't see Kent State able to keep up. Instead, I'm looking at the under. At 162 points, it's the highest total of the first-round games posted so far.
While UCLA should light it up as usual, Kent State doesn't do much from 3-point territory and I can see the Bruins getting out to a huge lead and coasting. The Bruins average 90.4 points per game, but oddsmakers have done a good job of getting burned by all the bettors that love to bet the over as the Bruins have a losing 15-16-2 record with the over.
The pick: lean to under 162
No. 10 Wichita State Shockers (-6) vs. No. 7 Dayton Flyers
Friday, 7:10 p.m., Indianapolis
Current total: 145.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 51 percent pick Dayton
Lange: The Shockers are a top-10 power-rated team, and while not receiving the seed they deserved, they are priced accurately in this matchup.
Dayton is no pushover, though, and they're a squad that is built to stick around in games thanks to balance on both ends of the floor. The Flyers were underdogs in five games this season and won three of them outright (4-1 ATS). And Wichita State did go winless both SU/ATS in three attempts against teams ranked in Sagarin's top 50 (Dayton ranks 37th). Still, the Shockers are the better team in this matchup in nearly every category. Small lean to the favorite as leading indicator sportsbooks hint -5.5 may become widely available by gameday.
Pick: lean Wichita State
No. 15 Northern Kentucky Norse vs. No. 2 Kentucky Wildcats (-20)
Friday, 9:40 p.m., Indianapolis
Current total: 152.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 52 percent pick Kentucky
Remember early in the season when Kentucky was playing at a breakneck pace and hanging 100 points regularly? We haven't seen that much lately as head coach John Calipari called for (and received) a little slower pace and much better defense in order to gear up for another postseason run. I also think Kentucky's lower scores had to do with opponents seeing the Wildcats' open court speed for a second time and being better prepared.
Northern Kentucky does see its fair share of up-tempo teams in the Horizon League: Oakland, Green Bay, Illinois-Chicago, Detroit and Youngstown State all love to run up and down the floor and take quick shots. But in terms of speed and efficiency, none of them even remotely compare to Kentucky.
In my Duke-Troy analysis, I spoke about the "big favorite, high total" profile being a solid bet under the total. However, I think some solid value has been created by Kentucky's 2-8 over/under run to close out the season.
Pick: over 152.5