LAS VEGAS -- The New England Patriots remain the top team in the NFL Vegas Rankings, but the Seattle Seahawks have moved ahead of the Dallas Cowboys into the No. 2 spot.
The Patriots, even with the loss of Rob Gronkowski, keep rolling along. They beat the Los Angeles Rams 26-10 as 13.5-point home favorites and are the 2-1 Super Bowl favorites at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
The Seahawks, who had taken a hit in our power rankings after their 14-5 loss at Tampa Bay in Week 12, bounced back with a resounding 40-7 rout of the Carolina Panthers as 8.5-point home favorites on Sunday night to vault back over the Cowboys, who beat the Minnesota Vikings 17-15 on Thursday night but did not cover as 3-point road favorites (note: the Cowboys are the No. 2 team in the Super Bowl futures at 7-2 with the Seahawks at 9-2).
The NFL Vegas Rankings are compiled using the average of the power ratings from Chalk handicappers Erin Rynning and yours truly, Dave Tuley, along with ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI). They're intended to compare the relative strength of teams if they were to meet on a neutral field and what the point spread should be for those matchups. We've also added the FPI and Massey-Peabody rankings to our chart for comparative purposes and to show other viewpoints.
Here's a look at the teams making the biggest moves up and down the NFL Vegas Rankings, and then we'll look for some Week 14 value plays using this week's power ratings:
Here's a look at the teams making the biggest moves up and down the NFL Vegas Rankings, and then we'll look for some Week 13 value plays using this week's power ratings:
Movin' on up
We had two teams see an increase of 1.5 points in their power rankings: the Detroit Lions and the Indianapolis Colts. The Lions, who our panel has been slow to upgrade, beat the New Orleans Saints 28-13 as 6.5-point road underdogs and finally had a game where they didn't trail in the fourth quarter. The Colts routed the New York Jets 40-7 on ESPN's Monday Night Football after closing as 1-point road underdogs. The only other teams getting a full-point increase from our panel were the aforementioned Seahawks, the Pittsburgh Steelers for their 24-14 victory over the New York Giants as 6.5-point home favorites and the Cincinnati Bengals for their 32-14 rout of the Philadelphia Eagles as 1.5-point home favorites.
Dropping down
The biggest downgrade in this week's power ratings came Monday night with the New York Jets' lackluster performance in their 40-7 loss to the Colts after closing as 1-point home favorites. Our panel docked them 2 points, especially with the news that Bryce Petty is taking over at quarterback, and we're not sure if that's even enough. The Miami Dolphins also dropped 1.5 points for their 38-6 loss at the Baltimore Ravens as 3.5-point road underdogs. The only other teams having their power ratings lowered by a full point were the San Diego Chargers, New Orleans Saints, Philadelphia Eagles and Carolina Panthers.
Week 14 value plays
Power ratings are used to compare the relative strength of teams to the current point spread, as if they were to meet on a neutral field before factoring in home-field advantage. The industry standard is 2.5 points for home field, but teams such as Green Bay, New England, Denver and Seattle are given a field goal or more. Note: a team's line might not be increased the full amount if hitting (and especially crossing) the key numbers of 3 and 7.
Every week during the season, we compare that week's lines to the NFL Vegas Rankings and list the value plays for the week. However, we also suggest using our ratings as a base to create your own numbers if you think we have some teams ranked too low or too high to help in your own handicapping.
Our value plays are back to .500 at 18-18-1 ATS as we won with the Minnesota Vikings +3.5 on Thursday night and the Arizona Cardinals -2.5 on Sunday, but lost with the Miami Dolphins +3.5.
(Note: As always, these are not my personal plays or those of any of the other handicappers, but rather the group as a whole. My picks will be in the NFL betting previews for all of the Week 14 games over the weekend here at Chalk and ESPN Insider.
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs
Vegas consensus line: Kansas City -3 (-120)
Vegas Ranks line: Oakland -1 (24-23)
Our panel has the Raiders as 1 point better than the Chiefs on a neutral field. Even with Kansas City's home-field advantage, we have this line more like the Chiefs -2 or -2.5 at the highest. So, with most books having the line at 3, there's some value there. Note: some books were still at +3.5 (-120) as of early Tuesday morning.
The play: Raiders +3 (EVEN)
Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans
Vegas consensus line: Tennessee -1
Vegas Ranks: Denver -4.5 (24.5-20)
Our panel has the Broncos rated 4.5 points better than the improving Titans. Even with Tennessee's home-field advantage, which traditionally isn't very strong, we still believe the Broncos should be favored -- and maybe even by as much as a field goal. Note: Trevor Siemian is listed questionable as of this writing and a lot of books have this game off the board.
The play: Broncos +1
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns
Vegas consensus line: Cincinnati -6
Vegas Ranks: Cincinnati -10 (22-12)
The Bengals are having a tough season, but we still have them rated 10 points better than the Browns on a neutral field. Cleveland's home-field advantage isn't much, so we still believe this line should be more than a touchdown; anything less looks like a bargain.
The play: Bengals -6
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams
Vegas consensus line: Atlanta -6
Vegas Ranks: Atlanta -9.5 (25-15.5)
Similar to the previous game, our panel has the Falcons 9.5 points better than the Rams on a neutral field. Even with Los Angeles' home-field advantage, we don't have this line dropping below the key number of 7.
The play: Falcons -6