LAS VEGAS - These are ESPN Chalk's weekly NFL betting recaps for every Week 9 game -- with an emphasis on the word "betting."
Sometimes it's clear from the opening kickoff that a team is going to win and/or cover the spread. Other times it looks like one team is going to coast to victory but the other one rallies, causing bettors to wonder how they could have possibly lost that game and crying "bad beat!" Of course, there also are the back-and-forth, 50-50 games that are virtual coin flips.
This new column, which will also include my takeaways from each game, will separate the different kind of point-spread results from each week, and is intended to be a quick overview for those who have to work on NFL Sundays or otherwise aren't able to watch all the games.
So let's run down Sunday's Week 9 action (plus Thursday's game). We'll also incorporate Rufus Peabody's numbers to give an analytical look at which teams should've covered.
Note: We'll point out crazy over/under results, but this is primarily a recap of the against-the-spread (ATS) results.
Bad Beats (clearly wrong sides)
Carolina (-3) in 13-10 push at Los Angeles
This is actually
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Carolina over Los Angeles by 1 point.
Easy Covers (clearly right sides)
Thursday: Atlanta (-5) in 43-28 win at Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers actually led 7-0 and 14-13, but the Falcons were up 20-14 by halftime and took control in the third quarter before eventually leading 40-14 before the Bucs closed the gap in garbage time. There was also little doubt of the game going over 49.5 points. The Falcons offense continues to dominate, though there is concern the defense can't hold opponents down, though this does make them a great over team.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Atlanta over Tampa Bay by 14.
Detroit (+5.5) in 22-16 overtime win at Minnesota
The Lions were in control most of the game (especially in regards to the point spread), but then the Vikings went ahead 16-13 with 23 seconds to play in regulation. The Lions were able to send it to overtime on Matt Prater 58-yard field goal as time expired and then won it on the first possession of overtime on Golden Tate's 28-yard TD reception from Matthew Stafford. The Vikings seem a shell of the team we saw that started 5-0. The offense was inept most of the game, and then when they got the lead, the defense didn't step up like earlier in the year. Both teams also continue their inconsistency, as both have impressive wins but have also lost to the Bears.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Detroit over Minnesota by 2.
New York Giants (-3) in 28-23 home win over Philadelphia
The Giants jumped out to a 7-0 lead on an Eli Manning-to-Odell Beckham Jr. 26-yard TD pass and were never ahead by less than the spread after that. But while this was mostly a shootout (Manning had four TD passes and Eagles QB Carson Wentz threw for 364 yards), the key play might have been Landon Collins picking off Wentz on the opening drive of the game and then New York's defense holding off two late drives by Philadelphia. The Eagles defense continues to struggle after its fast start.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New York over Philadelphia by 5.
Dallas (-7) in 35-10 win at Cleveland
The Browns jumped out to another lead on a 31-yard FG by Cody Parkey, but the Cowboys quickly took over with three unanswered TDs. Ezekiel Elliott ran for 92 yards and two TDs (with Alfred Morris adding 56 yards in a supporting role), but this was the game where Dak Prescott relied more on the pass with three TDs. And after hitting Jason Witten with the winning TD last week, Prescott went to his veteran tight end for 134 yards to give the Dallas offense another dimension. The Browns, well ... Terrelle Pryor scored a touchdown but there weren't too many more highlights.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Dallas over Cleveland by 26.
Baltimore (+3) in 21-14 home win over Pittsburgh
After waiting all week to see if Ben Roethlisberger would play, this was a defensive battle (by today's NFL standards, at least). The Steelers won the yardage battle 277-274 and the big play was Joe Flacco's 95-yard TD pass to Mike Wallace for a 7-0 lead late in the first quarter and more than one-third of the Ravens' yards all day. Baltimore's only other touchdown came on a blocked punt return for TD early in the fourth quarter to take a 21-0 lead. The Steelers scored two late touchdowns to make the score more respectable, though we'll never know if the offense could have finished an amazing comeback because of a terrible onside kick by Chris Boswell. For most of the game, Roethlisberger looked more than rusty.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Baltimore over Pittsburgh by 7.
New Orleans (-5.5) in 41-23 win at San Francisco
After the 49ers opened the scoring with a FG, the Saints scored three unanswered TDs and mostly coasted from there (though San Francisco did get as close as 28-20 late in the first half. Drew Brees threw for 323 yards and three TDs, but the most encouraging thing for the New Orleans offense was Mark Ingram scoring on a 75-yard run and gaining 158 total yards on the ground (of course, the 49ers run defense has been sieve-like since losing NaVorro Bowman for the season).
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New Orleans over San Francisco by 9.
Indianapolis (+7.5) in 31-26 win at Green Bay
The Colts led from the start as Jordan Todman returned the opening kickoff 99 yards for a touchdown and even though Aaron Rodgers pulled the Packers within 14-10 on a 26-yard TD pass to Jordy Nelson at the end of a wild first quarter, the Colts stayed in control and never trailed. Both defenses continue to not put up much of a fight. The Colts got 60 tough yards and 2 TDs from Frank Gore, but the offense still has to rely on Andrew Luck; meanwhile, Rodgers gets no support from the running game. It's bad when a backup WR (Ty Montgomery) is your leading rusher.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Indianapolis over Green Bay by 6.
San Diego (-4) in 43-35 home win over Tennessee
The Chargers jumped out to a 16-0 lead only to have the Titans battle back to take a 21-19 lead after the opening drive of the second half, but San Diego regained the lead on Melvin Gordon's 1-yard TD run and a 36-yard fumble return by Dwight Lowery to lead 33-21 and extended it in the fourth quarter to 43-28 with a pix-six. The offenses dominated with the difference being three takeaways for the Chargers defense. Gordon also continued to show he's over his disappointing rookie season and he makes San Diego's offense even more dangerous.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Tennessee over San Diego by 2.
Oakland (-1) in 30-20 home win over Denver
The Raiders dominated the battle for the lead in the AFC West. They jumped out to a 13-0 lead and the only doubts of their inevitable victory was that they had to settle for short Sebastian Janikowski FGs instead of TDs. With Aqib Talib and other Denver defenders out with injury, it was expected that Oakland would attack through the air, yet they ran all over the Broncos defense with 214 rushing yards, including 114 and three TDs from Latavius Murray. The Raiders defense also continues to improve, though its final stats were skewed by giving up Kapri Bibbs' 69-yard run-and-catch TD from Trevor Siemian in garbage time.
50/50 ATS Results
Jacksonville (+7) in 19-14 loss at Kansas City
There were times when it looked the Chiefs were the right side (they led 10-0 and 19-7, but with the 7-point spread, the Jaguars were always with one score of covering and got in the back door on T.J. Yeldon's 13-yard TD pass from Blake Bortles with 4:10 to play (and should have been inside the number earlier when Chris Ivory fumbled right at the goal line). This game mostly confirmed what we already knew: the Chiefs are a solid team but not likely to blow out teams, and the Jaguars have talent on offense that is underachieving with a decent defense.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Jacksonville over Kansas City by 13.
Miami (-4) in 27-23 home push over New York Jets
This could have been in the bad beat category for New York backers (especially those at +3.5 like yours truly) as the Jets led 23-20 on Ryan Fitzpatrick's 18-yard TD pass to Jalin Marshall with 5:42 to play only to lose it on Kenyan Drake's 96-yard return of the ensuing kickoff (which only happened after an offsides call on the Jets on the first ensuing kickoff). However, Miami backers can also claim to be the right side all along as they mostly controlled the game and led 20-13 heading into the fourth quarter. Neither defense really impressed as the best you can say for the Jets is they held Jay Ajayi under 200 yards (but he still gained 111).
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New York over Miami by 1.
Seattle (-6) in 31-25 home push against Buffalo
This could have gone either way and we won't even get into the officiating fiasco at the end of the first half. The Bills led 7-0 and 14-7 in the first quarter and Buffalo backers could claim they had the right side, but the Seahawks rallied and led by more than the spread, 28-17 at halftime, which actually put the game over the full-game total of 43.5 points. After a scoreless third quarter, the Bills pulled within 28-25 on Mike Gillislee's 1-yard TD run and Tyrod Taylor's 2-point conversion run with 14:26 left in the game, but then Steven Hauschka's 49-yard FG put it back on the 6-point margin with 9:49 to play.
Both teams are known for defense, but the offenses stepped up Monday night. Russell Wilson did it without a running game (which is a concern moving forward), though TE Jimmy Graham looked like he might finally be healthy. The Bills have more balance with LeSean McCoy opening things up for the improving Taylor.