LAS VEGAS - These are ESPN Chalk's weekly NFL betting recaps for every Week 7 game -- with an emphasis on the word "betting."
Sometimes it's clear from the opening kickoff that a team is going to win and/or cover the spread. Other times it looks like one team is going to coast to victory when the other one rallies, causing bettors to wonder how they could have possibly lost that game and crying "bad beat!" Of course, there also are the back-and-forth, 50-50 games that are virtual coin flips.
This new column, which will also include my takeaways from each game, will separate the different kind of point-spread results from each week, and is intended to be a quick overview for those who have to work on NFL Sundays or otherwise aren't able to watch all the games. We'll also incorporate Rufus Peabody's numbers to give an analytical look at which teams should've covered.
So let's run down Sunday's Week 7 action (plus Thursday's game) as the San Diego-Atlanta game was the closest we had to a bad beat (though it certainly was for those on the Atlanta money line or using in a teaser). Arizona also should have won.
Note: We'll point out crazy over/under results, but this is primarily a recap of the against-the-spread (ATS) results.
Bad Beats (clearly wrong sides)
Atlanta (-6.5) losing 33-30 at home against San Diego
This wasn't the worst bad beat we've seen, but the Chargers have to feel great about being on the winning side of one of these.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Based on the fundamentals, San Diego was expected to beat Atlanta by 9.
Easy covers (clearly right sides)
Philadelphia (+3) in 21-10 home upset of Minnesota
The Vikings led 3-0, but Josh Huff returned the ensuing kickoff 98 yards for a touchdown for the Eagles (and they went for and converted a 2-point conversion after a Vikings penalty) and they never looked back. The Vikings didn't score again until :37 left in the game. We knew both defenses were strong and opportunistic in forcing turnovers, but we didn't expect the offenses to contribute to the game of takeaway (or "giveaway" as it was early on).
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Philadelphia over Minnesota by 8.
Oakland (+2) in 33-16 win at Jacksonville
The Jaguars never led as the home favorites as the Raiders were up 20-6 at halftime and coasted from there. The teams actually tied in yardage at 344 apiece, but the Jaguars had to settle for field goals on their first three scoring drives and didn't score a TD until 4:12 left in garbage time. The Raiders won again playing an early game in the Eastern time zone, so hopefully we won't hear that as a negative for them anymore (of course, I think it has a lot to do with the fact that they're a better team now than when they kept losing early Sunday games). The Raiders offense looked more complete with the return of Latavius Murray (59 yards and two TDs).
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Oakland over Jacksonville by 18.
Tampa Bay (+1) in road upset at San Francisco
I'm calling this in favor of the Buccaneers even though they fell behind 14-0 in the first quarter, because they then had five unanswered scores to take a 27-14 lead in the third quarter and coasted to victory. San Francisco's run defense continues to miss NaVorro Bowman as the Buccaneers shredded the 49ers for 154 yards by Jacquizz Rodgers and 84 yards by Peyton Barber, including a 44-yard scamper. I'm not sure I can upgrade Tampa Bay off this win as the 49ers are a mess on both sides of the ball (the offense's best plays were scrambles by Colin Kaepernick).
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Tampa Bay over San Francisco by 14.
Denver (-9) in 27-9 home win over Houston
The Texans jumped out to a 6-0 lead, but it's usually not a good omen when an underdog settles for field goals instead of converting drives into touchdowns. The Broncos offense finally got going in the second quarter and they took a 14-6 lead by halftime. Even though the Texans cut it to 14-9 after their first drive of the second half, the Broncos pitched a shutout the rest of the way and went on to win by 18. Brock Osweiler checked down for short passes way too much and it's hard to dink-and-dunk all the way to the end zone, especially against a great defense like Denver. The silver lining for the Texans is they don't have to face the Broncos every week. Trevor Siemian checks down a little too much for my liking, too, but he at least led two touchdown drives (despite Houston having a very good defense as well).
50/50 ATS results
Thursday: Green Bay (-7.5) in 26-10 win over Chicago
I know a lot of people are going to wonder why this isn't in the "Easy Cover" category, especially Packer backers who feel they "had it all the way" after Chicago QB Brian Hoyer was knocked from the game and the Bears had to turn to Matt Barkley. But the truth of the matter is the Bears actually look a 10-6 lead early in the third quarter on Leonard Floyd's sack/strip/fumble/TD on Aaron Rodgers and the Packers didn't get up by two scores until Rodgers' 2-yard TD pass to Randall Cobb with 5:35 left to play. The Bears offense needs Jay Cutler to get healthy, but their biggest problem is in the secondary. The Packers covered but I really can't upgrade them off this performance.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Green Bay over Chicago by 16.
New York Giants (-3) in 17-10 win in London over Los Angeles
Early on, this looked like an easy cover for the Rams as they jumped out to a 10-0 lead in the first quarter and the Giants weren't able to do anything on offense, but then the game changed on Landon Collins' 44-yard interception return for a TD (where he ran closer to 100 yards) to tie the game 10-10 with 7:10 left in the first half. The game-winning (and covering) score came on Rashad Jennings' 1-yard TD run with 9:23 left to play, but this obviously could have gone either way. Despite New York's only TD coming on the ground, the running game was nearly non-existent with 36 yards on 20 carries while Eli Manning was also ineffective with just 196 yards passing and no TDs. The Rams offense looked improved between the 20s but failed to complete drives.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New York Giants over Los Angeles by 9.
New Orleans (+6.5) in 27-21 spread-covering loss at Kansas City
Some might call this a bad beat for Kansas City backers as the Chiefs led 21-7 at halftime and the Saints get through the back door until 2:33 remaining. However, I consider it more of a coin-flip result as the Saints were within a score of covering after pulling within 21-14 with 6:57 left in the third quarter and also had a chance to get within the number earlier but Mark Ingram fumbled inside the Kansas City 10-yard line with 8 minutes to play. In fact, that was indicative of the Chiefs' bend-but-don't-break defense that allowed 463 yards but got the win (and also contributed earlier with Daniel Sorensen's 48-yard interception return for the go-ahead TD at 14-7).
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New Orleans over Kansas City by 5.
Indianapolis (+4) in 34-26 win at Tennessee
This was really a back-and-forth battle as the Titans scored a TD on their opening drive (but missed the PAT), the Colts had three unanswered scores to lead 17-6 and then the Titans led 23-20 with 6:02 to play. Andrew Luck's 7-yard TD pass to Jack Doyle capped a 12-play, 70-yard drive and then Robert Mathis returned a fumble 14 yards for a TD to give the Colts the upset. The Titans missed an opportunity to move into a tie for first place in the AFC South. They just can't get over the hump that is the Colts (they're 0-8 vs. Luck) as the defense couldn't stop the Colts when needed and the offense also failed in the clutch.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Indianapolis over Tennessee by 5.
Cincinnati (-11) in 31-17 home win over Cleveland
This looks like a blowout, but the Browns led 10-7 in the second quarter and even with A.J. Green's spectacular Hail Mary catch at the end of the first half, the Bengals never led by more than this big spread until Mike Nugent's 36-yard FG set the final score with 4:19 to play. Cleveland's tackling was woeful on countless occasions as the Bengals offense racked up 559 total yards. Cincinnati's defense also had problems, especially with Kevin Hogan's option runs, but did enough for the win/cover.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Cincinnati over Cleveland by 9.
Detroit (+1) in 20-17 home win over Washington
This was an ugly game. A Matt Jones red zone fumble cost the Redskins an early lead. The Lions led 13-3 early in the fourth quarter and looked like the right side, but then the Redskins rallied to lead 17-13 with 1:05 to play. However, the Lions pulled out the win on Anquan Boldin's 18-yard TD pass from Matthew Stafford. It really could have gone either way. If not for the turnovers, it looked like the Redskins could have won in a rout, but give credit to the Lions for capitalizing, though they only turned three turnovers into three field goals. The Lions have won three straight home games after losing at Chicago; I'm not sure I'd trust them away from home.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Washington over Detroit by 0.2.
Miami (+3) in 28-25 home upset of Buffalo
The Bills looked like the right side when they took a 17-6 lead with 5:51 left in the third quarter on Tyrod Taylor's 67-yard TD pass to Marquise Goodwin. However, the Dolphins bounced right back with a TD drive to make it 17-14 heading to the fourth quarter and then added two more TDs in the final period to take a 28-17 lead. Jay Ajayi rushed for 200 yards in his second straight game, taking advantage of his opportunity. The addition of a running game has helped Ryan Tannehill be more efficient (or at least not force passes into coverage).
Massey-Peabody numbers say: Miami over Buffalo by 4.
New York Jets (-2) in 24-16 home win over Baltimore
The Ravens led 10-0 in the opening quarter and 13-7 early in the second, but were never totally in control to call this a bad beat. The Jets got back in the game after Ryan Fitzpatrick had to replace an injured Geno Smith and hit Matt Forte with a 13-yard TD pass for a 14-13 lead with 1:45 left in the second quarter. But the Jets were not clearly the right side either, as they never led by more than the 2-point spread until Forte's second TD with :56 to play (and only after fumbling on a previous play only to have the Ravens' Timmy Jernigan fumble it right back to the Jets; a bit of bad luck for Baltimore backers but I still don't call it a bad beat). The Jets defense came through for once this season, pitching a second-half shutout and intercepting two passes after only having two takeaways in its first six games. Baltimore's lone TD came on a botched punt snap that Chris Moore recovered in the end zone.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New York Jets over Baltimore by 16.
New England (-7.5) in 27-16 road win at Pittsburgh
The Steelers hung in with Landry Jones filling in for Ben Roethlisberger and were within 14-13 with 8:44 left in the third quarter. Of course, the Patriots responded with a 75-yard drive in just five plays to pull ahead 20-13 but Stephen Gostkowski missed the PAT to keep it under the spread. The Patriots kept pounding and got over the number on LeGarrette Blount's 5-yard TD run with 11:44 to play. This game confirmed for me that the Patriots do whatever it takes to win while the Steelers showed that they should be able to handle lesser teams.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: New England over Pittsburgh by 21.
Seattle (+2) in 6-6 overtime tie at Arizona
The Cardinals were sort of the right side (by the smallest of margins) most of the game, as they took a 3-0 lead on Chandler Catanzaro's 46-yard FG with 3:16 left in the first half and had another field goal blocked on a controversial play. The Seahawks didn't have the ball in Arizona territory until under 5 minutes to play on Tanner McEvoy's blocked punt that led to Steven Hauschka's game-tying field goal with 4:04 left. It was a bit of a bad beat for the Cardinals, as Catanzaro missed a short field goal in overtime that would have won it, though Hauschka also missed a potential game-winner. Both defenses are great, but we already knew that, just as we had it confirmed that Seattle's offensive line is a major liability. The easiest winning bet of the weekend was under 43.
Massey-Peabody numbers say: