ESPN Chalk's Vegas experts are here to provide analysis and best bets for all Week 7 games, including Monday night's Houston-Denver matchup.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Sunday morning.
Matchup: Houston Texans at Denver Broncos
Spread: Opened Denver -6.5; now Denver -8.5
Total: Opened 41.5; now 40.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 60 percent Denver
Public perception: Brock Osweiler returns to Denver -- a week after rallying the Texans from a 14-point deficit to beat the Colts in his best performance with his new team -- but the public is solidly on the Broncos, especially at lower numbers. The defending champion Broncos are 4-2 straight up and against the spread, and still a very public team despite dropping their last two games. The consensus top storyline is that the Broncos will seek revenge for Osweiler leaving via free agency.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps snapped up Denver -6.5 and -7 and have stayed on the Broncos without much resistance when this this line continued to climb. Denver will also be a very popular teaser and sports books will have a lot of liability unless they're able to knock off a few of the big teasers from Sunday.
Dave Tuley's take: Every NFL team wants to "get" the opposing quarterback every week, so I don't put too much stock in the Broncos having extra incentive against Osweiler. Frankly, I think the Broncos have been exposed a little in their losses to the Falcons and Chargers. Statistically, Houston is No. 27 while Denver is No. 28, with both teams better on defense (the Broncos at No. 4 and Texans at No. 7), so there's not that much to justify the Broncos being favored by such a large margin. In fact, our NFL Vegas Rankings only have the Broncos 2.5 points better on a neutral field, so I'll gladly take more than a touchdown.
The pick: Texans +8.5.
Rufus Peabody: Somehow, Houston pulled out a win last week to move to 4-2, but remain an underdog to make the playoffs (48.6 percent) according to Massey-Peabody's season simulations. Houston's offense has been woeful this year (fourth-worst in the NFL), averaging less than 5 yards per play. The culprit has been Brock Osweiler and an awful passing game that ranks third worst in the NFL, with 5.4 yards per pass play. Houston faces an elite Denver defense that has yielded only 4.7 yards per play, second best in football. I make the line Denver -7.7 and the total 39.2, so no value at the moment, but I lean under if the total rises to 41.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: Denver -7.7; total: 39.2
Erin Rynning: Brock Osweiler finally hit his stride for his new team in the second half last week, leading the Texans to a comeback victory. However, the task will be more difficult this week against his former team's defense. During the Broncos' modest two-game winning streak, both the Chargers and Falcons attacked them with tight ends and running backs. Unfortunately for the Texans, the Broncos have adjusted to this weakness, and Houston also doesn't own the proper personnel to cause damage. In addition, Osweiler struggles against pressure, the Broncos know it, and they excel bringing the heat. The Broncos will need to be led by their defense, as their own erratic quarterback play creates issues. Their schedule to date comes up extremely weak in strength of opponents faced, but the Texans stop unit is a step-up in class.
Pick: Under
Mike Clay
Prediction: Denver 21, Houston 17
The pick: Houston and the under