LAS VEGAS -- These are ESPN Chalk's weekly NFL betting recaps for every Sunday game -- with an emphasis on the word "betting."
Sometimes it's clear from the opening kickoff that a team is going to win and/or cover the spread. Other times it looks like one team is going to coast to victory when the other one rallies, causing bettors to wonder how they could have possibly lost that game and crying "bad beat!" And, of course, there are the back-and-forth, 50-50 games that are virtual coin flips.
This new column, which will also include my takeaways from each game, will separate the different kind of point-spread results from each week, and is intended to be a quick overview for those who have to work on NFL Sundays or otherwise aren't able to watch all the games.
So let's run down Sunday's Week 3 action:
Note: We'll point out crazy over/under results, but this is primarily a recap of the against-the-spread (ATS) results.
Bad Beats (clearly wrong sides)
Indianapolis (-1.5) in 26-22 home win over San Diego
The Colts led 10-0 and it looked like they could be a right-side winner, but the Chargers rallied to tie it 13-13 at halftime. In the second half, it really looked like the Chargers were going to cover, even after they missed a PAT by Josh Lambo and the Colts took a non-covering 20-19 lead. A Lambo FG put the Chargers up 22-20 and at least the cover for San Diego backers looked safe as it was assumed the Colts would be likely to settle for a game-winning FG.
However, Andrew Luck hit T.Y. Hilton over the middle and he took it 63 yards for the TD with 1:17 to play and a 26-22 final (after a missed 2-point conversion). That burned bettors who had the Chargers +1.5 and up to +3 from earlier in the week, and in the Westgate SuperContest. I learned once again to never count out Luck, though his lack of protection is alarming. The Chargers, who nearly overcame a bunch of injuries, showed they can play with anyone but have problems winning close games.
Green Bay (-6.5) in 34-27 home win over Detroit
This takes a bit of explaining. The Packers were clearly the right side, leading 31-3 with 1:10 left in the first half. The Lions rallied and cut it to 34-27 with 3:34 to play on Matthew Stafford's 35-yard TD pass to Marvin Jones. The Packers covered against the closing line of -6.5, however, I'm putting it in the bad beat category (or a lucky cover for Detroit) as a lot of people bet this game during the week when the line was at 7 and got a push. In addition, the line was Green Bay -7.5 earlier in the week (as well as in the Westgate SuperContest) and those Packer backers failed to cover (though those of us on Detroit +7.5 aren't complaining!). Green Bay played better defense than expected early on without Clay Matthews and several starters, but allowing the rally is cause for concern. The Lions showed they should continue to be live underdogs as Stafford continues to put up big numbers without Calvin Johnson.
Easy Covers (clearly right sides)
Buffalo (+5) in 33-18 home upset of Arizona
The Bills jumped out to a 17-0 lead and after the Cardinals briefly showed life by cutting it to 17-7, they didn't score again until it was 30-7. The Bills' defense really stepped up by forcing five turnovers and the Cardinals' 348-297 edge in yardage is misleading.
Seattle (-10) in 37-18 home win over San Francisco
The Seahawks were in control from the opening kickoff, going 75 yards in three plays to take a 7-0 lead on a Christine Michael TD run. Then Michael scored again to put the Seahawks ahead by more than the spread with 4:08 left in the first quarter. They were never leading by less than the spread the rest of the way. The 49ers scored two garbage TDs to make the score look respectable, but the Seahawks' defense dominated this game. Russell Wilson was knocked out of the game, but Trevone Boykin does a good Wilson impression.
Denver (+3.5) in 29-17 win at Cincinnati
The Broncos trailed by more than the spread at 7-0 and again at 14-10, but they were always in the game and took a 16-14 lead into halftime after Trevor Siemian hit Emmanuel Sanders with a 7-yard TD pass late in the second half; the Broncos never trailed again. Denver's defense took control in the second half and made it so Siemian didn't have to do too much. The Bengals will be fine (once they don't have to play teams like the Steelers and Broncos).
Kansas City (-3) in 24-3 home win over New York Jets
The Chiefs never trailed and the Jets were never covering except at 0-0. The Chiefs led 17-0 before the Jets got on the board, and then every time the Jets looked like they might get back in the game, the Chiefs got a stop or an interception (eight takeaways in all) as KC looked more like the defense we expected them to be. The Jets moved the ball in this game, but Ryan Fitzpatrick has to stop throwing to the other team.
Philadelphia (+3) in 34-3 home upset of Pittsburgh
In the most shocking score of the day (even more so than the Buffalo-Arizona game), the Eagles outplayed the Steelers with an efficient offense led by Carson Wentz and a defense that showed that it wasn't a fluke, as it played sensationally against one of the league's best offenses.
Minnesota (+6.5) in 22-10 upset at Carolina
This started out looking like a typical Panthers home rout and right-side winner as they jumped out to a 10-0 lead with a field goal and TD on their first two drives, but the Vikings got a safety with 1:44 left in the first quarter and turned the game around and scored 22 unanswered points. After those first two drives, Minnesota proved it has one of the league's elite defenses. The Vikings' offense, meanwhile, did enough for the win but was held to just 211 yards, though it was going against a stout Carolina defense, so we'll reserve judgement in how they're doing without Adrian Peterson.
Oakland (-1.5) in 17-10 win at Tennessee
The Raiders trailed 3-0 but responded with a Latavius Murray 22-yard TD run just 1:31 later with 8:19 left in the first quarter and never looked back. The Raiders had the No. 32 defense coming in and came through with three turnovers, but I wouldn't be so sure to say they've solved their problems on that side of the ball until they can stop an offense better than Tennessee's.
Los Angeles (+3.5) in 37-32 upset at Tampa Bay
The Bucs did lead by more than the spread at 20-10 for most of the last six minutes of the first half, but Todd Gurley's 1-yard TD run with :22 left in the half pulled the Rams within 20-17, and they never trailed by more than that again. In fact, that started a 21-0 run that put them up 31-20 in the fourth quarter and 37-26 before the Bucs cut into the final margin. This flew over the total by the end of the third quarter, but I'm not putting too much stock in either offense. This looked more like a sandlot-style shootout between two also-rans (though technically the Rams are currently in first place in the NFC West at 2-1 and hold the tiebreaker with Seattle).
Dallas (-6.5) in 31-17 home win over Chicago
The Cowboys dominated both sides of the ball in the first half in building a 24-3 lead. The Bears rallied in the second half to twice get within two touchdowns and Brian Hoyer had two throws to the end zone in the closing seconds that would have pushed a lot of bets that were made when the line was 7 (and get a back-door cover for those taking Chicago +7.5 in the Westgate SuperContest and other pools) but came up empty. The Bears' final TD did push it over the total of 45. Dak Prescott continued to impress, and the Cowboys got their first 100-yard rushing game from Ezekiel Elliott. The Bears' injury-ravaged defense was just overmatched, while the offense was inconsistent overall, but not any worse than with Jay Cutler.
50/50 ATS Results
Baltimore (-2) pushes in 19-17 win over Jacksonville
The Ravens were mostly the right side, especially because a lot of people bet this game at pick 'em and Baltimore -1, as they led 10-0 and then 16-7, but the Jaguars rallied and actually took 17-16 lead before Ravens kicker Justin Tucker provided the winning margin with 1:02 to play. The under of 45 was rarely in doubt and I continue to be surprised that the Jaguars offense isn't more explosive with all its weapons (though it didn't help facing a Baltimore defense that continues to play well).
Washington (+3.5) in 29-27 win at New York Giants
This started by looking like the Giants were going to be the right side, as they led 14-3 and 21-9 and still were ahead by more than the spread at 21-16 at halftime. However, the Redskins rallied to take a 23-21 lead with 9:45 left in the third quarter on a Kirk Cousins 55-yard TD pass to Jamison Crowder. From there, the teams traded field goals (and the lead) four times with the Redskins prevailing but with the Giants never a TD away from the win and the cover. Both offenses did well by spreading the ball around to eight different receivers, but both also settled for too many field goals.
Cleveland (+10) in 30-24 overtime loss at Miami
The Dolphins took a quick 7-0 lead and everyone thought the rout was on, but the Browns came back, tied the game at 10 and actually led 13-10 at halftime. Then, the Dolphins took a 24-13 lead early in the fourth quarter to actually be covering the double-digit spread before the Browns rallied again to force overtime and guarantee the point-spread cover. Neither team impressed, though the Browns were better than expected with Cody Kessler and utilizing former Ohio State QB Terrelle Pryor as a change of pace.