Reason for optimism: Active participants in the free-agent market, the Tigers added a big name at the plate and another on the mound.
Reason for pessimism: Last year's shortfall wasn't the result of being one player short.
If you root for the Detroit Tigers, you have to appreciate owner Mike Ilitch's approach to this season. Despite the fact that the Tigers finished in last place in the American League Central in 2015, marking a third straight year of season-ending declines, he didn't order a tear-down. Instead, the Tigers made a big splash in the free-agent market with the signings of Justin Upton and Jordan Zimmermann. For Tigers fans, that's the benefit of having an 86-year-old owner who has never won a World Series.
Upton joins a lineup that already has a lot of firepower. J.D. Martinez, Ian Kinsler and the sublime Miguel Cabrera have all posted at least 4.0 WAR two years in a row, but a review of the rest of the team's 2015 production reveals that the Tigers weren't one player away.
First of all, they got a significant contribution from the since-traded Yoenis Cespedes, whose .829 OPS in 102 games last year is roughly equal to Upton's lifetime OPS. Cabrera is still a perennial batting champ candidate, but his power dropped significantly last year, and Victor Martinez, at 36 years old, slammed into his aging curve in a way that has to worry those who watched, say, 36-year-old Chase Utley last year.
Put it all together, and the Tigers might not be much better than they were last year. They were quite unlucky in producing runs last season, so there should be a nice uptick in runs scored, but it certainly won't boost them to the level of their offense two years ago, when they scored almost 800 runs.
Speaking of 800 runs, that's a reminder of Detroit's real problem last season. The Tigers became the first AL team since 2013 to give up more than 800 runs, and that was with David Price posting a 2.53 ERA over 21 starts. Zimmermann is going to help fortify the rotation, compared to the disaster that was Alfredo Simon in 2015. Still, he could add five wins worth of value by reducing runs allowed by 49, and the Tigers would still have allowed more runs than anyone in the AL last year.
Even if Zimmermann helps lessen the loss of Price, the Tigers have a rotation that a) has Mike Pelfrey and his 12 percent strikeout rate as a back-end starter, b) is backed by a defense that has ranked 25th or worse in adjusted defensive efficiency three of the past four years and c) throws to one of the worst pitch framers in baseball in James McCann.
While all those are discouraging, it's very possible the bullpen will be materially better this year. Detroit's relievers had a 4.38 ERA last season, and though 4.00-plus bullpen ERAs tend to not repeat from year to year due to regression, the weakest arms are usually pared. That's the case with the Tigers, as a few relievers with ERAs above 5.00 last year have been replaced.
I have to respect the Tigers' attempt to surround Cabrera and a mildly rejuvenated Justin Verlander with enough talent to get back to the postseason. Because they have five players who can -- and have -- posted 4.0 WAR seasons at the plate, it's not a delusional plan. Still, run prevention is going to be such a problem that it's probably more wishful thinking than being realistic.
Vegas, having hung an 80.5 wins market for Detroit, sees a Tigers team that will hover around .500. I don't think the team is a postseason contender, but at 80.5, I'm happy to let the opportunity pass. Still, the Tigers are positioned similarly to the Orioles and the Angels as recent playoff teams that could see the bottom fall out this season.
2016 projection: 78-84 (tied for third in the AL Central)
Bet recommendation: Pass