Reason for optimism: The satisfaction and thrill of going to Kauffman Stadium and gazing at the 2015 World Series banner will last for years.
Reason for pessimism: Adding to the collection of banners is unlikely, because this season, the areas for easy year-over-year improvement are absent.
Although the ending to their 2015 season only differed from their 2014 finale by the outcome of the last game of the World Series, the Kansas City Royals' potential for improvement the following season looks very, very different. Although both teams were anchored by a dominant trio of back-end relievers, unnoticed by many was that the 2014 team had an abysmal bullpen, outside of Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera and Greg Holland. While those three all had ERAs below 2.00, the rest of the pen combined to post a 4.89 ERA, a level of incompetence usually reserved for the worst teams in the league, and therefore very easy to improve upon. And improve it did.
Last year, while the trio did have some regression (ERA rose more than a full point) the rest of revamped bullpen turned elite. Not only did that portion of the pen give up nearly two runs less per nine innings (ERA dropped from 4.89 to 2.91) but they increased their workload by 38 percent. The result: The 2015 ex-Davis, Herrera and Holland bullpen gave up 25 fewer runs than the 2014 version -- in 98 more innings pitched.
In the last five seasons, the only team whose bullpen recorded sub-3.00 ERAs two seasons in a row was the Braves (2012 and 2013). The other 13 teams regressed the year after accomplishing the feat, and remember that includes the closers (in the Braves' case, Craig Kimbrel). Expecting the front end of Kansas City's bullpen to repeat a sub-3.00 ERA performance is therefore so unlikely as to border on absurd. Regression is coming, and it's going to result in a material increase in runs allowed for the Royals this year.
Kansas City won the AL pennant in 2014 despite a pair of enormous holes of sub-replacement performance at two of the most important positions for offensive production: designated hitter and right field (they only got 10 home runs from those two positions). Last year they got 33, as the offense benefited tremendously from the addition of Kendrys Morales and his .847 OPS.
In 2016, there is one position where an improvement from sub-replacement level is possible, but unlike last year, a new face isn't being imported. Instead, the Royals are hoping Omar Infante can correct his problems, which were solved midseason by the two-month rental of Ben Zobrist. But when a 34-year-old middle infielder has a 2 percent walk rate accompanied by an ISO of .098, you don't look much different than a National League team batting its pitcher.
Turning to unlikely luck, you might read about the Royals' Pythag (plus-5 games) and cluster luck (plus-5 more games) elsewhere -- and in truth, some of those are a bit overstated due to the way their bullpen is used and the fact that their contact rate is tops in the game by a whopping 2.1 percent -- but there is another very hidden element of sequencing luck that is certain to reverse. The Royals ranked third in adjusted-defensive efficiency in 2015, but it had a very interesting split component to it.
When relievers were in the game, which by definition means smaller-sample, higher-leverage situations than normal, the Royals defense morphed into an offensive-stopping unit that would make the Denver Broncos proud. The Blue Jays had the best defense in baseball last year by a considerable margin, but when they had relievers on the mound the Royals' unit was even better. Unless you believe in clutch defense, this is unlikely to repeat in 2016.
Finally, there's the hidden benefit of health. The Royals only had 13 players with more than 100 plate appearances, and those players accounted for 96.6 percent of the team's every-day player plate appearances, by far the highest in the majors. That type of health means loads of replacement-level at-bats are avoided, and it almost never happens in consecutive years.
Last year, analysts warned that the Royals' 2014 success, which resulted in an unexpected run to the World Series, was non-repeatable. That was reflected by oddsmakers as well; the Royals' 2014 total wins market was 81.5. But analysts and Vegas alike missed the obvious areas available for year-over-year improvement.
This year, those same articles are being written and oddsmakers are only mildly more optimistic than last year, pegging the Royals for 83.5 wins in 2016. Given that they were a 95-win team last year, that's not even close to unrealistically high, and therefore this is not a mouth-watering "under" opportunity. However, I do think it's too high due to the factors listed above.
In "Game of Thrones," there is a three-word motto of the Starks that warns of a foreboding future and the need for vigilance. For those thinking of backing the seemingly low Royals total this year with an "over" bet, it's not winter they need to be worried about, it's this: Regression is coming.
2016 projection: 81-81 (second, AL Central)
Bet recommendation: Pass