Reason for optimism: The Rays are one player away from being a serious contender to win the AL East.
Reason for pessimism: Sadly for Tampa's fan base, that player is Joey Votto.
Last year, the Rays were my favorite "over" call in all of baseball. While our previews were published with the market at 78.5 wins, at points during spring training it was as high as 79.5 -- which meant the Rays had to win game 162 to earn all of the "over" backers winning tickets to cash. So, was last year's over call lucky in retrospect? I don't think so.
Despite finishing with an under-.500 record, the Rays outscored their opponents, suggesting talent two games in excess of their final win total -- but even that underscores their true level of play. The Rays were once again victims of cluster luck, which was the case in 2014 as well (and helped set last year's expectations unrealistically low). In 2014, the driver of the number was an unlucky amount of runs allowed; in 2015, they should have scored a lot more runs.
Despite ranking seventh in batting average, ninth in on-base percentage, 10th in slugging (but seventh in Isolated Slugging) in the American League, Tampa finished the season second-to-last in scoring. Fretting about finishing near the bottom in scoring instead of something resembling the league average might seem like much ado about nothing, but when you had starters who allowed the fewest amount of runs by any AL rotation in a non-strike-shortened season since 1968, a league-average offense is all that is needed to be a playoff contender.
So how did this team not end up as a contender, but a fourth-place also-ran? The answer lies in the bullpen.
The Rays' bullpen had a 3.93 ERA, three-tenths of a run worse than the rotation's. In an era of shutdown bullpens and starters working fewer innings than ever, if a team's bullpen doesn't have a lower ERA than its starters, it's a sign of trouble. The Rays lost 28 games in which they were leading or tied entering the seventh inning. The other 14 AL teams averaged 19 such losses. Back-end relief, in a nutshell, doomed Tampa in 2015.
The news isn't really encouraging on that front in 2016, either.
Gone from the bullpen are Jake McGee and Kevin Jepsen, both of whom sported sub-3.00 ERAs and combined to toss 79 innings of relief. The most notable replacement? Danny Farquhar, acquired from the Mariners on the cheap. Farquhar sported an awful 5.12 ERA last season, but his underlying skills have always been much better; he has a lifetime SIERA of 2.80.
The trade for Farquhar was part of a bigger package that cost the Rays promising starter Nathan Karns. Tampa was dealing from a position of strength, however, as Karns actually had the highest 2015 ERA of any of the regular members of the rotation. Of course, it wasn't a Karns-for-Farquhar straight-up deal either, as Tampa also addressed one of the three positions at which it received below-average offensive production in 2015 -- shortstop.
Brad Miller, still only 26 years old, comes over with underrated pop for a shortstop. He has averaged 10 home runs a year in his three years in the majors, despite accumulating a bit more than 400 annual plate appearances a year in that time. Hank Conger will also enter the lineup, replacing the abysmal .178/.213/.275 batting line supplied by Rene Rivera. Conger's pitch-framing ability has always bordered on elite, which is a very Rays-like thing to value, but his bat will almost certainly be below league average, too.
The final new face in the lineup is Corey Dickerson, and that's the change that has the most offensive upside. Should he replicate his lifetime line of .299/.345/.534 in a full season for the Rays, they will assuredly jump to an above league average position in runs scored. Alas, Tropicana Field isn't Coors Field and, like most Rockies, Dickerson had severe home and away splits. That neatly sums up the constraint of the small-market Rays -- any additions they make to the team in an effort to improve performance always come with a large degree of uncertainty or tradeoffs.
Finally, they have no solution for the James Loney problem at first base. He hasn't slugged over .400 since 2013, and it is killing the Rays from a competitive disadvantage standpoint, as the average MLB first baseman slugged .452 last year, per Baseball Prospectus.
The one element of the Rays' performance that is always top tier is their defense. After dropping to 16th in 2014 in adjusted defensive efficiency solely because of a historically fluky lack of double plays turned, Tampa returned to a top-five defense for the third time in four years in 2015. That also represents a difference between this year and last -- the defense might be great again but there is very little room for improvement.
Last year the Rays were such a strong "over" play because expectations were low, the rotation was very underrated and there were a bunch of areas available for hidden improvement. Owing to the fact that I start the Rays at 85 wins before accounting for marginal changes from 2015 to 2016, some of that hidden improvement still exists this year. But expectations have risen as well. The Rays have an over/under market of 81.5 games this year, and make no mistake -- they should finish with an above .500 record.
I've got them at 86 wins, and that's certainly enough room to justify an "over" selection -- but it doesn't come with the enthusiasm of last year's call, which saw a path for the Rays to win the AL East -- something that I don't believe exists this year.
2016 projection: 86-76 (third, AL East)
Bet recommendation: Over