Reason for optimism: Seattle has aggressively addressed the weakness that has annually crushed the team's results during the Felix Hernandez era.
Reason for pessimism: Hernandez turns 30 this year, Robinson Cano is 33, the Dodgers were starved for rotation help and passed on Hisashi Iwakuma, etc. The window for this era's success is close to closed.
It escaped the eyes of even the sharpest baseball fan, but in 2015, the Mariners embarked on a very peculiar experiment. Despite playing in the American League, they eschewed their right to use a designated hitter for the entire season. I know what you're going to say, "Joe, I watched the Mariners play last year, and I don't ever recall pitchers hitting in any but a handful of interleague games." That would be another example of how our eyes lie.
The pitching staff of the San Francisco Giants had a triple-slash (AVG/OBP/SLG) line of .167/.187/.285 over the 2015 season. The Seattle Mariners catchers, in just over 600 plate appearances, hit .160/.208/.259. They slugged 26 points lower than a pitching staff! Remember, as well, that National League teams pinch hit for their pitchers about 250 times a year. So despite the fact I picked the best hitting staff in the NL to make the point, this equation was true in 2015:
NL pitchers + NL pinch hitters > Seattle catchers
That's deadly for a team's outlook because we know exactly what a DH is worth versus pitchers hitting; AL teams outscore NL teams by about 45 runs a year. That's what makes the Mariners' offseason acquisition of Chris Iannetta so important. If Iannetta can be merely league average on offense, combined with last year's excellent framing results, his marginal value to Seattle this year would be equivalent to the Nationals signing Buster Posey. Even if his offense is as weak as it was last year, Iannetta still brings a high walk rate to the lineup, evidenced by a lifetime .351 OBP, which brings us to the next marginal improvement for Seattle.
After five years (2011-15) of fielding lineups with collectively the worst OBP in the majors at .301, Seattle's front office finally appears to be addressing the problem. Iannetta's batting average has always been low, but his OBP has always been elite. Joining him in the lineup this year is Adam Lind at first base. Lind has his flaws, for sure, but his approach in the past three years has resulted in a .364 OBP. Nori Aoki will be leading off, and no one in baseball has a more consistent stat line year-to-year than he does. You can confidently pencil in a .353 OBP from him.
Finally, 23-year-old prospect Ketel Marte has the shortstop position all to himself after a half season with the club last year in which had posted a .351 OBP. You don't need to say anything else about the offense; if the new additions post .350 OBPs in front of Seth Smith, Nelson Cruz and Cano in 2016, the Mariners have a chance to make the biggest year-over-year increase in runs scored in the majors.
If that happens, it will complement another nearly guaranteed area of improvement that will make the Mariners a toss-up in my book to win the AL West. Seattle has won 71, 87 and 76 games the past three years, respectively. Why the dramatic swings from solidly below average to solidly above and back? Here are their bullpen ERAs, and MLB ranks, for the three years in question:
I am fond of writing over and over that bullpen ERAs -- among offense, pitching and defense -- have by far the highest year-to-year variance, but Seattle's relievers have taken that to ridiculous extremes. Admittedly, the departure of Carson Smith tempers my eye's enthusiasm for declaring the Mariners winners of the AL West, but as good as Smith was last year, don't forget there are also 51 innings of 5.68 ERA relief from the departed Fernando Rodney to improve upon as well.
The rotation is, of course, anchored by Hernandez and, much to the surprised delight of Mariners fans, Iwakuma returns as the No. 2. Wade Miley is a new addition whose initial results in the AL with Boston last season are nothing to get excited about, but he's being asked to merely replace J.A. Happ's 4.68 ERA starts. There could be real improvement from Taijuan Walker, whose mid-3.00 ERA skills produced mid-4.00 ERA results last year. With an above-average strikeout rate and below-average walk rate, he has the stuff to give Seattle a three-headed rotation to match up with Cleveland as best in the league.
All the pieces are in place this year to finally get Hernandez to the playoffs, and I find the expectations curiously subdued. It's obviously related to the Rangers' return to the top of the division and the Astros' emergence, but I think Seattle is being significantly overlooked. The potential is there for a terrific three-way race this year, in the only division where I believe every team can construct a realistic scenario to take the crown.
In what is sure to be a contrarian view, give me a large helping of the "over" 82.5 wins for the Mariners.
2016 projection: 87-75 (first, AL West)
Bet recommendation: Over