Reason for optimism: If as a fan you value stability, and like to purchase player jerseys that remain current for an extended period of time, the low-turnover Angels are you're kind of team.
Reason for pessimism: Stability, as a trait, has a lot more value if the players you retain are actually valuable.
In the Oakland A's preview it's asserted that, despite having the worst record in the American League in 2015, the A's actually played better than half of the league. Although the discussion turned its focus on one of the teams that benefited from Oakland's poor luck (the division-winning Texas Rangers), the Los Angeles Angels fit that bill as well.
Despite being outscored by their opponents in 2015, the Angels managed to win 85 games and sat just two games out of first place with six games left in the season, on the strength of an extraordinary record in one-run games. Los Angeles went 35-17 in one-run games, the seventh-best winning percentage in that category over the past 25 years and the most in one-run games since 1993.
Of course, success in one-run games tends not to be consistent. Just ask the Orioles, who set the record for one-run game efficiency in 2012 by winning 29 out of 38, before compiling a 20-31 record in those games a year later.
So if the Angels played to the level of a mildly below-average team with Mike Trout, the best player in the American League (per fWAR) for the fourth year running, what changes are in store for this year? Honestly, it really starts and ends on the left side of the infield, where there will be new starters at third base and, most notably, shortstop.
The sublime-fielding Andrelton Simmons joins the Angels from Atlanta, and he'll form a new-look left side of the infield with Yunel Escobar at third. Once a highly regarded defensive shortstop himself, Escobar will move to third for the first time in his career. The Angels have had a top-10 ranking in adjusted defensive efficiency in three of the past four years, peaking at No. 6 last year. There's no reason to think that prowess will decline this year, but it also limits how much better their run suppression can get.
While the Angels are probably hoping for a wash in terms of offensive contributions from their new infielders, compared to the departed Erick Aybar and David Freese, they are depending on an upgrade from new left fielder Daniel Nava. Matt Joyce was among the worst hitting corner outfielders in baseball last year, but Nava is no sure thing himself. Despite being a switch-hitter, he may have value only against right-handed pitchers -- leaving 32-year-old Craig Gentry with the possibility of a significant number of at-bats.
Moving over to the rotation, we see Los Angeles is going to battle this year with the same six starters who made all but nine of the team's starts in 2015. Stability is great, but it's more desirable if you have a stable of aces or near-aces -- and the Angels, quite frankly, don't have any of either. Listing the starters here would be a somewhat pointless task, as they are all interchangeable, and with the exception of Andrew Heaney, past peak age. As a staff the Angels were 18th in the majors in ERA, 16th in strikeout rate, 11th in walk rate, 20th in SIERA and so on. This is, at best, an average staff that's gotten a year older.
Like the rotation, the bullpen (also ranked 18th in ERA) doesn't stir up much excitement, and even in the ever-changing world of bullpen personnel, this unit looks pretty much the same. Jose Alvarez is the only reliever among the bullpen's top four in innings pitched in 2015 that departs, and his workload is slated to be taken by Al Alburquerque.
Taken as a whole, do any of those changes excite you?
To my eye, little has changed, and that's bad news for a team that needed upper-elite performance from Mike Trout to carry them to within shouting distance of outscoring its opponents. If Trout keeps hanging near-double-digit WAR totals the Angels always have a case for relevance, but don't let Trout's brilliance obscure the greater truth: The Angels are at best an average team, and due to the age of a number of players, .500 should be a goal and not a floor.
With a total wins market at 81.5 there's no play for me, but if I was forced to choose you can certainly see which way I'd lean. That being said, there's a reason it's a pass. Total wins within a division are finite, and given that I think the Angels' success this year is more or less capped, I'd much rather play the overs of a couple of their division-mates and the under on another rival that has a higher market.
2016 projection: 80-82 (fourth, AL West)
Bet recommendation: Pass