Reason for optimism: From an ownership perspective, at least, the team's bottom line is going to improve.
Reason for pessimism: Ask Seattle fans how much fun it is watching Fernando Rodney protect one-run leads.
Across baseball, the position player who generates the least amount of offensive production is the catcher. Baseball Prospectus tells us that in 2015, across the majors, catchers produced a batting line of .240/.304/.379. A look at full-time catchers last year reveals that Caleb Joseph, who hit .234/.299/.394, is as close as anyone to representing an average catcher. So, to summarize, Caleb Joseph embodies an average player at the worst offensive position on the field.
Last year, the San Diego Padres spent more than $100 million on salary for the first time in franchise history, and what did they get for their efforts?
A lineup of eight Caleb Josephs.
The Padres hit .243/.300/.385 in 2015, and their batting average and on-base percentage was the worst in baseball for the second year running. That means that over the last two years the Padres had more trouble getting to first base than any other team.
Given that San Diego's front office spent last winter acquiring big-name talent like Matt Kemp, Wil Myers and Justin Upton, it's not going out on a limb to call them, by far, the biggest disappointment in baseball last year. As if that isn't depressing enough for Padres fans, the best hitter on last year's squad (Upton) and the player who led the team in on-base percentage (Yonder Alonso) are no longer with the team.
As newcomers Jon Jay and Alexei Ramirez certainly don't profile as the type of players to change the character of the offense, San Diego appears destined for another season of league-worst production. In fact, I project the Padres to be the only team not to score 600 runs this year. (For perspective, the Blue Jays scored their 600th run on August 11 last year.) The lineup, chiefly due to the departure of Upton, will cost a lot less this year, but that improvement in runs scored/dollars saved on salary has little meaning for anyone other than the team's owners.
Of course, the Padres didn't just revamp the starting lineup last year; they also added a marquee name to the rotation and bullpen as well. While Craig Kimbrel did post a career-low strikeout rate and the highest ERA of his career, he certainly wasn't a bust. After all, that career-worst K-rate of 36.4 percent easily would be a career best for Mariano Rivera. Still, there was an impression Kimbrel disappointed, especially because of some outright closing failures in April and May (4.74 ERA), when attention on the new-look Padres was greatest. In any event, the Padres traded him to Boston this offseason. If you're a Padres fan and think he was a disappointment, you haven't seen anything yet, because the Fernando Rodney Experience has rolled into town for 2016.
Like Kimbrel, you can't really say James Shields, the marquee rotation addition last year, failed, but he posted a career-worst walk rate and his highest ERA since 2010. No one should have thought they were getting an ace in Shields, his lamentable "Big Game James" nickname aside. His strength is durability and on that front he, and in fact the entire rotation, delivered. San Diego got a least 30 starts from four different members of the rotation, tied for most in the majors with the two Chicago franchises.
Shields, Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner return this year, but in a sign of how badly the Padres are going to need 100 starts from the trio in 2016, Colin Rea, a spot starter last year, and Brandon Maurer, a full-time reliever in 2015, currently fill out the rotation. This isn't exactly a combustible starting five, but it's a rotation, at best, with three "number threes" and a pair of "fives." An enviable hand at the poker table, but a decided liability in baseball.
When you see a team's expectations plunge from one year to the next, there's an inclination from a value standpoint for serious bettors to suspect overcompensation and take a closer look at the other side. San Diego's expected fortunes certainly have plunged; the year-over-year decline in its total wins market of 10.5 -- from 84 to 73.5 -- is the largest in baseball. Still, I don't think it's low enough.
Last year's "under" call cashed with laughable ease and I graded the Padres as a 71-win team at season's end. (They won 74 games.) With the departures of Upton and Kimbrel, this team is worse in 2016 and the roster has limited upside. The only player who could possibly break out is Myers, but he's been moved to first base, where a breakout might only make him a league-average hitter at that position.
If you're leery of joining me on an "under" bet on a 74-wins target, keep this in mind. Every time the Padres have a lead, they're going to be trotting out Rodney, who very well might come to the rescue. Our rescue.
2016 projection: 70-92 (fifth, NL West)
Bet recommendation: Under