ESPN Chalk's Joe Peta is sharing his season win total projections for every MLB team, including a reason for optimism and pessimism.
Plus, he recommends an over/under play, or a pass. This is the entry for the San Diego Padres.
San Diego Padres
Reason for optimism: Aggressive offseason moves by the front office have yielded the best Padres team in at least five years.
Reason for pessimism: Maybe there is a reason all those other teams were willing to part with those players.
Yes, the Padres are going to be better this season; yes, the front office deserves a ton of credit for its aggressive remaking of the roster; and yes, the team that's finished above .500 only once (2010) since 2007 has positioned itself to have a winning record in 2015. Still, expectations seem to have gotten a bit ahead of themselves.
San Diego had 12 different players with more than 250 plate appearances in 2014, and only three of them -- Yonder Alonso, Alexi Amarista and Jedd Gyorko -- figure to start in 2015. The entire outfield is new with Justin Upton, Matt Kemp and Wil Myers. Derek Norris takes over the catching duties and Will Middlebrooks will get ample time at third base as he attempts to regain his status as a top prospect. That's an overall upgrade to be sure, but the departed production of Chase Headley, Seth Smith and particularly Rene Rivera and Yasmani Grandal was far from replacement level.
The big concern is whether all of the increased run production on offense will be offset by a big drop in defense (including pitch framing). Norris' defensive limitations were laid bare during the American League wild-card playoff when the Royals went 6-for-6 in stolen base attempts by six different players.
Additionally, the Padres had by far the best catching tandem in baseball at pitch framing (Rivera and Grandal saved 44 runs per Baseball Prospectus via extra strikes gained, equating to five wins in 2014), while Norris graded very low at a below-average 84th in the majors. On top of that, the new outfield -- especially Kemp -- brings a history of average-at-best defensive metrics to San Diego.
Of course, the changes didn't stop with the lineup as James Shields looks to complement a solid rotation of Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross, and Ian Kennedy. Shields may feel like an upgrade, but from a marginal change standpoint, it's hard to see how he's going to improve on the performances of spot starters Odrisamer Despaigne and Jesse Hahn. The unheralded duo made 28 starts in 2014, during which they amassed an ERA of just 3.19. No doubt, Shields is the more reliable arm for 2015, but in trying to improve last year's 77-win squad, it's unlikely to come from Shields' marginal improvement over last season's starters. Then there's the case of this year's fifth starter, Brandon Morrow, who hasn't had quality stuff since 2011. Just like other hidden factors, Cashner and Ross (who had excellent seasons last year) may have just as solid skills this year but find their results are much different with an inferior catcher behind the plate and suspect gloves behind them.
It's great that San Diego's fans have optimism this spring training, and it's not without reason. The Padres have power in the outfield they haven't had in recent history, and because they're under 30, Myers and Upton can certainly provide considerable upside. Heck, even Kemp is only 30. Still, it's just as good a bet that they'll be outscored over the course of the season, as that they'll be outscoring their opponents.
The Padres opened up in Vegas at 85 and that number has come all the way down to 84. Even at the reduced price, it appears San Diego's expectations are a bit ahead of reality prior to Opening Day. At 84, and definitely anything higher, the Padres are an "under" play.
2015 projection: 81-81 (third, NL West)
Bet recommendation: Under