Reason for optimism: With World Series titles in 2010, 2012 and 2014 ... well, we know what's expected in 2016.
Reason for pessimism: The rotation has been fortified, but it's still fragile.
I can give you a firsthand anecdote of how ingrained the even-year phenomenon is in San Francisco residents. When Hunter Pence went down during the first spring training game last year, I wondered how to delicately broach the subject with my 8-year old daughter, a budding Giants fan. Knowing Pence was one of her favorite players, I gently told her that he was going to miss the first month of the season. She mulled it over and then said to me, "That's OK. It's not an even year."
As silly as the narrative is, it's going to be with us all season, so let's note right now the big difference between the three-time even-year defending World Champions and the 2016 version: The team with which the Giants will break camp is easily the best.
In 2010, the Giants had a well-deserved reputation for sticking with veteran players too long, and it almost cost them a postseason berth. Had the Giants waited one week longer to promote Buster Posey, the San Diego Padres likely would have won the division, and the Philadelphia Phillies likely would have claimed their third straight NL pennant. The 2012 World Champions started the season with Aubrey Huff at first base before finally turning the job over to Brandon Belt, and they needed midseason pickups Pence and Marco Scutaro to fill other holes. The 2014 team was a bit more stable but still needed the midseason emergence of Joe Panik and trade-deadline help from Jake Peavy to sneak into the wild-card game.
This year's squad comes to spring training with no obvious holes. According to FanGraphs, there were 19 everyday players in the National League who had a WAR of at least 4.0 last season. Five of them fill the infield and catcher positions for the San Francisco Giants -- and all of them are home-grown. This year, this young, talented and superb defensive infield is backed by a fortified outfield as well.
Denard Span, an above-average player every year of his career, upgrades an offense that was already fifth in the National League in runs scored. Fifth best might not sound overly impressive, but that's because the Giants play half their games in the offense-killing environment of AT&T Park. It's more instructive to look at runs scored in away games. Through that more balanced lens, the Giants were the second-highest scoring team in the National League, and despite playing without a designated hitter, they were fourth in all of baseball. The addition of Span not only makes this the most potent offensive team of the Posey era, but it also makes the NL's best defensive team even better.
With the best defense and a top-tier offense in 2015, that leaves only the pitching staff to blame for San Francisco's not making the playoffs last year. NL pitchers had an average ERA of 3.91 in 2015, and besides the sublime Madison Bumgarner, the Giants rotation was beset by injuries and ineffectiveness. The team got only 19 better-than-league-average starts from Peavy, who had a 3.58 ERA. Every other starter -- and there were seven of them -- had an ERA of 3.95 or higher, and four hurlers (accounting for 56 starts) had ERAs of at least 4.50.
San Francisco's front office attacked that weakness this winter by opening up the checkbook to lure free agents Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to the Bay Area. Matt Cain is still a worrisome No. 5 starter, which tells you how far injuries and age have eroded the standing of a pitcher who once gave San Francisco four years of below-3.00 ERA starts (2.93 from 2009 to 2012). Even Bumgarner hasn't accomplished that.
Of course, the improvements San Francisco made didn't go unnoticed by oddsmakers. The Giants' season wins market, at 88.5, is higher than it has been at any other time in this era. The at-the-time defending World Champion Giants were underrated last year, and the "over" recommendation cashed with little sweat.
The hurdle is six games higher this year, and though an "over" is achievable, it's a shaky call, should injuries strike the rotation again. There is plenty of firepower in the lineup to carry the team if needed, though, and I expect them to make the playoffs. It's not a high-conviction call, but it still qualifies as an "over" selection.
2016 projection: 91-73 (second, NL West)
Bet recommendation: Over (lean)