Reason for optimism: Sending Clayton Kershaw to the mound every five days induces a perpetual state of optimism.
Reason for pessimism: Replacing the results of one-half of a historic duo is daunting.
Kershaw and Zack Greinke gave up 107 total runs last year. Ignoring the handicap that they did it in over 65 starts and 455 innings, you could take any two MLB starters who qualified for the ERA award last year (i.e. minimum of 162 innings pitched) and they will have given up more runs than Kershaw and Greinke. Think about how astounding that fact is.
Not only weren't there two aces in all of baseball who gave up as few runs, there weren't even two pitchers who threw 330 innings between them -- not even three-quarters of what Kershaw and Greinke threw -- and came anywhere close to giving up fewer runs than the Dodgers' aces did.
(Then again, those pitchers didn't get to throw to Yasmani Grandal or have the Dodgers' defense behind them, but let's pick up that train of thought in the Arizona Diamondbacks preview.)
Obviously, the run-suppression production is going to suffer, as it most certainly would even if Greinke had returned, but the Dodgers are hoping his innings will be replaced by Hyun-jin Ryu, who sat out all of last season after undergoing shoulder surgery. That's not a bad card to be able to play; Ryu has a lifetime ERA of 3.17, which is actually lower than Greinke's career mark of 3.35. Stamina might be an issue, of course, but the Dodgers have a very decent plan to limit the drop-off. However, that plan took a hit early in spring training with the loss of No. 3 starter Brett Anderson for at least half the season. The reason for some improvement optimism, though, is that after Kershaw and Greinke last year (with the exception of Anderson), the Dodgers actually had an awful rotation.
Sixteen different starters took the mound for Los Angeles last year, easily the most in the majors. That's the kind of statistic that typically gets hung on one of the worst teams in the league because it usually means a team endured a large amount of replacement-level starts. Sure enough, for the Dodgers it was a troublesome situation.
Of the 20 starts made by the 10 fill-in starters, the Dodgers got the following results: 69 earned runs in 91 2/3 innings pitched for an ERA of 6.77. That is truly abysmal, below-replacement level production. So while the back end of the rotation beyond Kershaw, Ryu and a limited Anderson of Scott Kazmir and Kenta Maeda might not excite you, remember what they are replacing, and then remember that team won 92 games.
Improvement in the bullpen is also a near guarantee. Dodgers fans correctly remember a number of bullpen meltdowns last year that resulted in the team losing 22 different games it led or was tied in after seven innings. The relievers' runs allowed stats reflect that as well, as the bullpen's ERA of 3.91 was 19th in the majors and 11th in the National League. Yet, based on skill sets, the Dodgers actually had the best bullpen in baseball.
No matter what your eyes think they saw, and the deficiencies you recall during some of those defeats, the Dodgers' bullpen had the second-highest strikeout rate in baseball (26.1 percent), and with a below-average walk rate, the highest K-BB percentage in the majors. That's a combination of skills for an ERA close to 3.00, not 4.00. With Kenley Jansen anchoring this year's pen again, look for substantial improvement in high-leverage situations in 2016 resulting in a couple of extra wins.
On offense, there is one change of note. Last year's starting shortstop Jimmy Rollins got a walk or hit 150 times while his infrequent replacement, and this year's starter, Corey Seager did the same 47 times. Triple the production from the veteran doesn't sound so bad, until you learn that he had five times as many plate appearances as Seager. Seager will provide a big upgrade this year at shortstop.
In terms of production, the high-profile departure of Greinke is, without question, impossible to fill. It's not touched on above, but the Dodgers were very unlucky at converting last year's offensive production into runs. Thanks to expected gains in that metric, improved bullpen results that are highly likely, and massive improvements possible at the back of the rotation, Los Angeles doesn't have to play nearly as well as it did last year to win the same amount of games, which I think they will.
At a wins market of 89.5 games, and with a lot of attention focused on the even-year witchcraft practiced 400 miles to the north, the Dodgers are actually underrated this year.
2016 projection: 93-71 (first, NL West)
Bet recommendation: Over