Reason for optimism: Adam Wainwright looked great in October and last year's stellar rookies, Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk, will be Opening Day starters.
Reason for pessimism: At best, those players are being asked to plug big holes, not improve the team.
For the second year in a row, the St. Louis Cardinals confounded data-driven bettors with their win-loss record. In 2014, the Cardinals won 90 games despite outscoring their opponents by a mere 16 runs during the regular season. Last season, St. Louis not only captured its third straight National League Central crown, but did it by winning an MLB-best 100 games. It wasn't the run differential that suggested lesser talent -- at plus-72 it wasn't quite 100-win good, but was still indicative of a mid-90s-win team -- it was how they achieved that differential.
The Cardinals were massive beneficiaries of cluster luck, a term I coined in my book to measure the fortunes of sequencing. Consider this: The vast majority of a team's runs scored can be explained by its BA, OBP and SLG. Here is what the pitching staffs of the Cardinals and Cubs -- who played nearly identical schedules over the season -- allowed opposing hitters to achieve last year:
Although the hits they allowed carried slightly more power (11 more home runs allowed), the Cubs' pitchers surrendered vastly fewer hits (83), and once walks were accounted for, the Cardinals staff allowed a staggeringly higher amount of baserunners (153, or nearly one per game). Throw in strikeout rates, which reduce the ability of baserunners to advance, (23.9 percent to 21.7 percent in favor of Chicago) and it's inconceivable the Cardinals would allow fewer runs, let alone 83 fewer than the Cubs. This is why the Cubs' victory in the National League Division Series was sweet vindication for those who insisted all summer that Chicago was the better team.
However, it's a good thing for the franchise that they did allow only 525 runs because, for the second year in a row, St. Louis scored runs at a below-NL-average rate. The sudden power outage in 2014 can't be written off as a fluke anymore. The Cardinals haven't had this much trouble scoring runs in two consecutive non-strike seasons since 1990-91. That's a stunning change of character for a team that has spent much of the 2000s leading the non-Coors Field portion of the NL in run scoring.
It would, therefore, seem like an inopportune time for St. Louis to lose its best everyday player from last year.
To be sure, a fair portion of Jason Heyward's value comes from his work in right field, but his .293/.359/.439 line at the plate will be tough to replace on a team that hit .253/.321/.394. The shedding of Mark Reynolds' dead weight at first base surely recaptures some of the shortfall, but the Cardinals are going to need identical 2016 production from last year's rookies Grichuk and Piscotty -- in over twice as many plate appearances! It's not impossible, but sophomore campaigns can be awfully rocky, and overall, the Cardinals appear to be stuck scoring less than 700 runs for the third year in a row; that will be putting even more pressure on their pitching, which as pointed out above, will positively be less productive this year even if it produces exactly the same underlying statistics.
It would, therefore, seem like an inopportune time for St. Louis to lose its best starter from last year.
John Lackey, like Heyward, a defection to the Cubs, allowed just 67 earned runs over 218 innings pitched last season, an ERA of 2.77. Here, the news is slightly more encouraging for Cardinals fans than in Heyward's case: If anyone can replicate Lackey's run suppression, it's Wainwright, who showed no ill effects of the Achilles injury that sidelined him from April until late September/October, when he threw eight dominating innings across six appearances. Less certain is the ability of Mike Leake to fill in for Lance Lynn, who despite pitching with pain that required Tommy John surgery in the offseason, posted a 3.03 ERA, close to a run better than Leake's career work.
I got paid on the "over 88 wins" call last season, but the ease with which that bet won was illusory. St. Louis was a 90-win team in 100-win clothing, and based on the marginal changes discussed above, there will be a material drop off this year.
I'm thrilled to see a current market of 87.5 wins. Like the Pittsburgh call within this division, the Cardinals are a strong "under" play.
2016 projection: 82-80 (second, NL Central)
Bet recommendation: Under