Reason for optimism: Tanking sure did help the Cubs and Astros get back to the playoffs in short order.
Reason for pessimism: The first step toward effective tanking would have been to make sure Kyle Lohse got 30 starts again.
The most competitive race in the NL Central might not be for the crown but for last place, and with it a probable top-three pick in the 2017 amateur draft. That's because, like at least a half-dozen other teams across baseball -- including their division mates, the Cincinnati Reds -- the Milwaukee Brewers appear to be in tank mode.
To achieve their goal, which began by trading Carlos Gomez and Mike Fiers at last year's trade deadline, Milwaukee's front office traded away Adam Lind, Jean Segura, and Khris Davis this offseason, mostly for players who won't contribute this year, while also replacing the retired Aramis Ramirez with some possible replacement-level combination of Aaron Hill and Will Middlebrooks. (Or is replacement level what they hope for when tanking?)
While that effectively removes five of the eight starters from last year's Opening Day lineup, the problem with Milwaukee's tanking strategy is multifold:
(A) the jettisoned players weren't that good last year, contributing just 6.3 fWAR.
(B) it leaves behind their two best players, Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy, in a situation which would seem to sabotage a true tank.
(C) the Brewers weren't that bad in 2015 despite their 68-94 record. (They actually played to the level of a 73-win team.) In fact, I've got the Brewers actually scoring more runs this year than last; not exactly mission accomplished, if you're intent on tanking.
It's possible they'll find more "success" in achieving their goals when it comes to the revamped pitching staff. Anytime Wily Peralta has a chance to start Opening Day, you're not budgeting any money for ticket printing in October. However, even more so than on offense, the Brewers' biggest change to the rotation -- the "loss" of Lohse to free agency -- is addition by subtraction. (Or is it subtraction by addition if you're tanking?) Unless they have a plan in place to sign Jamie Moyer, there is absolutely nothing Milwaukee can do that won't improve upon Lohse's 6.31 ERA over 22 starts last year.
Francisco Rodriguez had an excellent year as the closer, so his trade to Detroit for a minor league prospect weakens the Brewers' pen. However, and I say this as a man who still bears the scars of daily betting during the 2012 season, if Milwaukee really wanted to tank this year, it would have signed John Axford to a one-year, reunion-tour contract instead of assigning -- eventually, if not by season's start -- closing duties to Corey Knebel. Guys with 28 percent strikeout and 49 percent ground ball rates tend to be effective.
An in-season trade of Braun seems unlikely given his contract, and the Brewers' small-town status probably limits their ability to eat any salary, so the only way Milwaukee can really get worse would be to trade Lucroy. That's a move which would weaken both the lineup and, given Lucroy's legendary framing abilities, the pitching staff as well. Otherwise, I just don't think the Brewers are going to be as bad as projected, or perhaps more importantly for the fortunes of the franchise, as bad as they reportedly want to be.
It certainly doesn't rise to the level of a bet given moves that might come in-season, but I see the Brewers winning a couple more games than their market of 69.5 wins. For betting purposes though, the market is fair.
2016 projection: 72-90, (fourth, NL Central)
Bet recommendation: Over (lean)