We're halfway through the 2015 Major League Baseball season, which means wins have been banked, the St. Louis Cardinals are dusting off the playoff-ticket printing press and the Philadelphia Phillies have confirmed tee times for the first week in October.
But most importantly for our purposes, spring training projections can be evaluated because history tells us at least 70 percent of October's participants have been identified. MLB's 10-team postseason is only four years old, but from 2012 to 2014, a minimum of seven of the 10 teams slotted for the playoffs at the All-Star break each year have made it to the postseason. Overall, 22 of the 30 teams that made the playoffs would have also made the playoffs if the season ended at that year's All-Star break.
Of course, attempting to identify the other teams is the fun part of handicapping. So let's dig into the first half of the 2015 season, compare results with expectations and possibly find some over- and undervalued teams for the next three months.
Note: Records are reflective of all games played through Sunday.
All statistics are through each team's 81st game.
Season-to-date pricing adds the implied win probability from the money line of each team's first 81 games and converts it to 162 games. For instance, a team that was minus-150 (60 percent win probability) in each of its first 81 games would be valued as a 97.2 (60 percent x 162) win team.
Cincinnati Reds
Vegas projection: 77.5 wins
My projection: 79 wins
Current record/pace: 39-47 (73-win pace)
Season-to-date pricing: 81 wins
What has gone right: For baseball fans in general, it's sure been nice to see Joey Votto stay healthy and return to the form that made him one of the most productive offensive players in baseball. The news gets even better for Reds fans: Votto, and his .882 OPS, isn't even close to being the Reds' most valuable player this year. All-Star starter Todd Frazier, on pace for an 8.0 WAR season, has inserted himself into the NL MVP conversation with a sizzling first half. Cincinnati's defense, a top-five unit the past two years, has been just about that good in 2015. From a baseball bettor's perspective, there's probably not a better feeling -- especially now that Craig Kimbrel has turned human -- than holding a ticket backing the Reds and watching Aroldis Chapman take the mound in the 9th inning to protect a lead.
What has gone wrong: Despite the presence of Chapman, the bullpen is in contention for the worst in the National League. The Braves and Rockies relievers may have worse ERAs, but the Reds pen, collectively, has a worse skill set. No bullpen walks a higher percentage of batters than Cincinnati's. Chapman can get away with walking 13 percent of the batters he faces because he strikes out nearly half of the other 87 percent -- J.J. Hoover, Tony Cingrani and Nate Adcock can't. Carlos Contreras walks more batters than he strikes out and in today's environment, as Michael Wilbon would say, "that's a gots-to-go situation."
As depressing as the "star and scrubs" bullpen situation is for Reds fans, the rotation might be even worse. Johnny Cueto is a certified ace and Anthony DeSclafani has had decent results, albeit with very shaky peripheral stats, but beyond that, the starters have been dismal. Outside of Cueto and DeScalfani, the Reds have gotten 273 innings of below-replacement level pitching from a motley collection of starters, nearly all with ERAs above 4.50.
Second-half outlook: Despite the presence of certified stars in Frazier, Votto, Chapman and Cueto, there is little reason to think the Reds can play .500 ball the rest of the way due to the replacement-level talent that populates the rest of the non-Chapman and Cueto portion of the pitching staff. Worse, Cueto is almost certain to be dealt by the trade deadline, which leaves the Reds needing a three-run home run on a nightly basis from either Votto or Frazier to stay competitive.
A bit shockingly to my eye, bookmakers have overvalued the Reds all year, despite a very realistically muted total wins market of 77.5. Despite first-half results mildly below that pace, the Reds have been priced as exactly a .500 team on a day-to-day basis. There's a better chance Votto and Frazier cool off than there is that the pitchers become league-average over the last three months. I do not expect the Reds to be competitive the rest of the season and they could end up with the fewest wins in the league -- excluding the Phillies, of course.