We're halfway through the 2015 Major League Baseball season, which means wins have been banked, the St. Louis Cardinals are dusting off the playoff-ticket printing press and the Philadelphia Phillies have confirmed tee times for the first week in October.
But most importantly for our purposes, spring training projections can be evaluated because history tells us at least 70 percent of October's participants have been identified. MLB's 10-team postseason is only four years old, but from 2012 to 2014, a minimum of seven of the 10 teams slotted for the playoffs at the All-Star break each year have made it to the postseason. Overall, 22 of the 30 teams that made the playoffs would have also made the playoffs if the season ended at that year's All-Star break.
Of course, attempting to identify the other teams is the fun part of handicapping. So let's dig into the first half of the 2015 season, compare results with expectations and possibly find some over- and undervalued teams for the next three months.
Note: Records are reflective of all games played through Sunday.
All statistics are through each team's 81st game.
Season-to-date pricing adds the implied win probability from the money line of each team's first 81 games and converts it to 162 games. For instance, a team that was minus-150 (60 percent win probability) in each of its first 81 games would be valued as a 97.2 (60 percent x 162) win team.
Chicago Cubs
Vegas projection: 82.5 wins
My projection: 83 wins
Current record/pace: 47-40 (88-win pace)
Season-to-date pricing: 84.4 wins
What's gone right: Look past the staff ERA to skill sets: The Cubs have assembled the best starting rotation in the NL Central.
But when it comes to stable, repeatable elements of pitching such as strikeout rate, walk rate and groundball rate -- the components of which make up SIERA, the most predictive measure of future ERA -- the Cubs don't just lead the division, their rotation has the lowest SIERA in the majors. Projected ERA can fall short of actual when the staff is backed by a below-average defense, but that's not the case for the Cubs. Through 81 games, they ranked sixth at converting batted balls into outs and erasing existing baserunners, suggesting that the staff's SIERA may be more of a ceiling than a floor.
What's gone wrong: The young, explosive lineup has been somewhat unlucky converting production into runs. Through their first 81 games, the Cubs were just 24th in runs scored, which is decidedly below-average. But when you look at the components of offense, (OBP, SLG, and ISO) which convert to runs, the Cubs were a little better than league average. Additionally, youth leads to inconsistency and thanks to a starting eight that has six players age 25 or younger, Chicago has hit some dry patches offensively. Finally, it took a while for management to get all the personnel pieces in place. The Cubs starting lineup on Opening Day featured three players who aren't currently on the active roster.
Second-half outlook: Thanks to the most explosive lineup in the division and the best combination of starters, relievers, and defense, I've got the Cubs winning the most games in the division during the second half of the season, by a comfortable margin. The good news is, as evidenced by the daily lines through 81 games, oddsmakers have the Cubs a distant third to Pittsburgh and St. Louis, suggesting there's plenty of value in a default strategy that backs the Cubs for the second half of the season.
I see parallels to the AL West race in 2012, when the Texas Rangers has a commanding lead over Oakland at the All-Star break, despite the fact that underlying data showed the Rangers were slipping and the A's were improving even though it wasn't showing up in the results. Of course, those divergent paths crossed on the last day of the season when the A's took the division crown. Put me down for a similar stunning result in the NL Central in 2015. I envision huge potential in backing the Cubs on a daily basis for the rest of the year.