We're halfway through the 2015 Major League Baseball season, which means wins have been banked, the St. Louis Cardinals are dusting off the playoff-ticket printing press and the Philadelphia Phillies have confirmed tee times for the first week of October.
But most importantly for our purposes, spring training projections can be evaluated because history tells us at least 70 percent of October's participants have been identified. MLB's 10-team postseason is only four years old, but each year from 2012 to 2014, a minimum of seven of the 10 teams slotted for the playoffs at the All-Star break made it to the postseason. Overall, 22 of 30 teams that made the playoffs would have made the playoffs if the season ended at that year's All-Star break.
Of course, attempting to identify the other teams is the fun part of handicapping, so let's dig into the first half of the 2015 season, compare results to expectations and find some over- and undervalued teams for the next three months.
Note: Records are reflective of all games played through Sunday. All statistics are through each team's 81st game.
Season-to-date pricing adds the implied win probability from the money line of each team's first 81 games and converts it to 162 games. For instance, a team that was minus-150 (60 percent win probability) in each of its first 81 games would be valued as a 97.2-win (60 percent x 162) team.
Texas Rangers
Vegas projection: 76 wins
My projection: 71 wins
Current record/pace: 42-46 (77-win pace)
Season-to-date pricing: 71.4 wins
What has gone right: When Yu Darvish was lost for the season in spring training, there was a realistic scenario in which the Rangers would be the worst team in the American League. Through 81 games, the Rangers made that view look pretty silly, as they scored as many runs as they allowed on their way to a 41-40 record. Prince Fielder is slugging at his highest rate since he left the Brewers, and with Mitch Moreland on pace for career highs in just about all offensive categories, the Rangers are finally not at a competitive disadvantage versus the league at first base, the most important roster position from an offensive production standpoint.
What has gone wrong: The Rangers have gotten one inning of work from Derek Holland, whose return to the mound in 2015 was supposed to mitigate the loss of Darvish for the season. The search for arms at the back of the rotation was so bleak that Texas gave seven starts to a pitcher who walks more batters than he strikes out. Forget Chi Chi Gonzalez's acceptable-looking 3.74 ERA through those seven starts, as it is simply unheard of in the 2015 MLB environment for a pitcher to have a higher walk percentage than strikeout percentage. It's impossible to win games with that profile behind all but the very best defenses in baseball.
Gonzalez is back in the minors now, but if he returns to the bigs, bettors will be faced with an ATM-like situation that hasn't existed since Tyler Chatwood made 25 starts for the Angels in 2011. (In a certain betting circle in Las Vegas, he was known as Tyler "Chat-eaubriand" because a start from him meant reservations at Prime Steakhouse in the Bellagio the next evening.)
Even with Gonzalez back in the minors, the Rangers' rotation is awful. They are last in the majors in strikeout percentage, a position the Twins have held for so long they might be able to collect rent from Texas under squatter's rights regulations. The Rangers pair that with the third-highest walk rate and a flyball staff in the heat of the Ballpark in Arlington, and let's just say Billy Beane must not be too happy looking at the standings on a daily basis. The Texas bullpen has the highest ERA in the American League as well; this is not a .500 team.
Second-half outlook: Before the season started, I observed that oddsmakers never really caught up with how bad the Rangers were last year, as evidenced by daily lines that had Texas as an over .500 team after 121 games, despite a 47-74 record at the time. Oddsmakers aren't making that mistake this year, as they are practically begging bettors to back Texas. Except for the Phillies, the Rangers have been the cheapest team to bet on a daily basis, and to be fair, backers have been rewarded with four different plus-170 or better scores, including the underdog ticket of the year, a plus-240 cash versus the Dodgers -- and Clayton Kershaw -- on June 20.
Although I don't see any upside for the Rangers versus their first-half results, there is probably little value in trying to back that view, given season-to-date pricing. To be clear, in no way have I thrown in the towel on one of my emphatic total wins "under" calls, but it must be acknowledged that unless oddsmakers start to adjust the Rangers' lines upward, the default reaction can't be to simply fade the better-than-expected season-to-date performance -- unless Alex Gonzalez is on the mound. Then you can close your eyes and back their opponents.