We're halfway through the 2015 Major League Baseball season, which means wins have been banked, the St. Louis Cardinals are dusting off the playoff-ticket printing press and the Philadelphia Phillies have confirmed tee times for the first week in October.
But most importantly for our purposes, spring training projections can be evaluated because history tells us at least 70 percent of October's participants have been identified. MLB's 10-team postseason is only four years old, but from 2012 to 2014, a minimum of seven of the 10 teams slotted for the playoffs at the All-Star break each year have made it to the postseason. Overall, 22 of the 30 teams that made the playoffs would have also made the playoffs if the season ended at that year's All-Star break.
Of course, attempting to identify the other teams is the fun part of handicapping. So let's dig into the first half of the 2015 season, compare results with expectations and possibly find some over- and undervalued teams for the next three months.
Note: Records are reflective of all games played through Sunday.
All statistics are through each team's 81st game.
Season-to-date pricing adds the implied win probability from the money line of each team's first 81 games and converts it to 162 games. For instance, a team that was minus-150 (60 percent win probability) in each of its first 81 games would be valued as a 97.2 (60 percent x 162) win team.
New York Mets
Vegas projection: 82 wins
My projection: 84 wins
Current record/pace: 47-42 (86-win pace)
Season-to-date pricing: 84.0 wins
What has gone right: Path dependency, mentioned in assessing the Nationals' midseason report, reared its ugly head in setting expectations for the Mets as well.
Ownership may make horrendous decisions with capital, but the idea that the Mets are a 90-win team in waiting is misplaced. For now, everyone should be satisfied that a team that hasn't finished above .500 for six straight seasons has a winning record, despite being outscored. This is not a team that is "one bat away" from contention.
Instead, fans should continue to celebrate the development of the young pitching staff as well as Matt Harvey's successful, if not quite dominating, first campaign after elbow surgery. Despite the variance in performance this year, the Mets have the pieces in place to be October participants, but they are probably still a year away.
What's gone wrong: For all the jokes about the amount of money the Mets are paying Bobby Bonilla this year, the fact remains that they're paying $18.8 million more to David Wright than Bonilla in 2015, and they have gotten exactly one more home run for their money. Wright's progressive diagnosis from mild hamstring strain to spinal stenosis is not only baffling but calls into question the competence of the team's medical staff.
Wright's departure effectively ended the Mets' chances at wild-card contention as New York has gotten a total of two other home runs from a position where NL teams are averaging 12. (If that doesn't sound like a big difference, remember it's over 81 games. Double those numbers for total season production.) Travis d'Arnaud's two trips to the DL have been a big hit as well. He has as many home runs and almost as many RBIs in 77 plate appearances as his replacements do in nearly 300 PAs.
The bullpen's results are good, as its 2.82 ERA is the fifth-lowest in baseball. But like a couple other relief corps with low ERAs, it's not sustainable. With a 9.9 percent walk rate, the bullpen still walks way too many batters and is no better than it was last year.
Second-half outlook: Thanks to a really exciting set of starters, the Mets are no longer a laughingstock. But they need improvement in a number of areas, including health, before anyone should be disappointed or restless with a .500 record. Having benefited from a schedule slightly front-loaded with games against the Phillies (8-1 record), Miami (6-4) and Atlanta (6-6), things get tougher in the second half with 10 straight games (and 13 out of 16) against teams in first place. That will determine if the Mets have any hope to contend for a wild-card spot.
I suspect the answer is "no," and based on the decent amount of respect oddsmakers have given the Mets this year, I think there's some value in playing it that way.