We're halfway through the 2015 Major League Baseball season, which means wins have been banked, the St. Louis Cardinals are dusting off the playoff-ticket printing press and the Philadelphia Phillies have confirmed tee times for the first week in October.
But most importantly for our purposes, spring training projections can be evaluated because history tells us at least 70 percent of October's participants have been identified. MLB's 10-team postseason is only four years old, but from 2012 to 2014, a minimum of seven of the 10 teams slotted for the playoffs at the All-Star break each year have made it to the postseason. Overall, 22 of the 30 teams that made the playoffs would have also made the playoffs if the season ended at that year's All-Star break.
Of course, attempting to identify the other teams is the fun part of handicapping. So let's dig into the first half of the 2015 season, compare results with expectations and possibly find some over- and undervalued teams for the next three months.
Note: Records are reflective of all games played through Sunday.
All statistics are through each team's 81st game.
Season-to-date pricing adds the implied win probability from the money line of each team's first 81 games and converts it to 162 games. For instance, a team that was minus-150 (60 percent win probability) in each of its first 81 games would be valued as a 97.2 (60 percent x 162) win team.
San Francisco Giants
Vegas projection: 82.5 wins
My projection: 85 wins
Current record/pace: 46-43 (84-win pace)
Season-to-date pricing: 83.8 wins
What has gone right: When they are at full strength, the Giants are exactly what they've been for the past three seasons -- a highly underrated offensive team. Because of the huge variations in park effects, offensive production on the road is often a useful way to compare teams.
San Francisco has done that in 2015 despite two key injuries in its starting lineup. Depth is not a calling card for this team, so the fact that the Giants have been able to maintain that type of production with Hunter Pence missing 63 of the team's first 81 games and Nori Aoki missing 11 is an indication this team is better than fans and oddsmakers think. When Pence and Aoki are both in the starting lineup, I assure you the Giants are underrated with nearly guaranteed value if you simply close your eyes and bet on them. In the 16 games both have appeared in the lineup, the Giants are averaging 5.1 runs compared to 4.2 in all of their first 81 games.
The Giants defense is once again an asset. After overcoming a shaky couple of weeks with Casey McGehee starting at third base, they are once again a well-above-average unit due to their exceptionally strong double play combination. Which brings up an interesting personnel observation...
Although you've never seen them atop, or anywhere near the top of various MLB franchise rankings based on prospects, the vast amount of the Giants' success is based on home-grown talent. When Madison Bumgarner or Chris Heston is on the mound for the Giants this season, you're looking at an entire infield in Matt Duffy, Brandon Crawford, Joe Panik and Brandon Belt, plus the battery featuring Buster Posey, that is entirely comprised of homegrown talent -- all of whom are on pace to post 4.0 WARs or higher over 162 games. That's unbelievable.
What has gone wrong: Last year the lack of depth nearly curtailed the Giants' entry into the postseason and that hasn't changed this year. There are nights the Giants rest some of their starters and the lineup isn't pretty.
Heston's emergence has been vitally important, because notwithstanding Bumgarner, the Giants pitching staff is old. Jake Peavy, Tim Hudson and Matt Cain all have age-related injuries or durability issues. In the case of Ryan Vogelsong and Tim Lincecum, the worries are simply production related. If the Giants do miss the playoffs, it will probably be because of a string of poor starts from the Nos. 3 through 5 starters.
On the topic of the playoffs, there is one other factor that Giants fans need to be wary of: The NL Central is very, very good. If I'm right that Pittsburgh and Chicago are going to gain on St. Louis as the season progresses, the Giants could be the odd team out in October. Because those three divisional foes play a number of head-to-head games, Giants fans would be best served if two of those teams simply beat up on the third.
Second-half outlook: I may have been a huge advocate of backing the chronically underrated Giants in the 2012 and 2014 postseasons, and while I do think they are still underappreciated from an oddsmaker's perspective, that support doesn't extend to the division race this year. The Dodgers are a better regular-season team by a substantial margin. Still, the Giants don't get the respect they deserve on a daily basis, and I look forward to backing them in the second half of the season when Aoki gets back in the lineup.