We're halfway through the 2015 Major League Baseball season, which means wins have been banked, the St. Louis Cardinals are dusting off the playoff-ticket printing press and the Philadelphia Phillies have confirmed tee times for the first week in October.
But most importantly for our purposes, spring training projections can be evaluated because history tells us at least 70 percent of October's participants have been identified. MLB's 10-team postseason is only four years old, but from 2012 to 2014, a minimum of seven of the 10 teams slotted for the playoffs at the All-Star break each year have made it to the postseason. Overall, 22 of the 30 teams that made the playoffs would have also made the playoffs if the season ended at that year's All-Star break.
Of course, attempting to identify the other teams is the fun part of handicapping. So let's dig into the first half of the 2015 season, compare results with expectations and possibly find some over- and undervalued teams for the next three months.
Note: Records are reflective of all games played through Sunday.
All statistics are through each team's 81st game.
Season-to-date pricing adds the implied win probability from the money line of each team's first 81 games and converts it to 162 games. For instance, a team that was minus-150 (60 percent win probability) in each of its first 81 games would be valued as a 97.2 (60 percent x 162) win team.
Boston Red Sox
Vegas projection: 86 wins
My projection: 83 wins
Current record/pace: 42-47 (76-win pace)
Season-to-date pricing: 86.2 wins
What has gone right: If a team of economists that didn't know anything about baseball took a look at Boston's payroll, and then compared it to production, they'd question whether the baseball industry was actually a meritocracy. Fortunately for the Red Sox, their high-priced talent may be having a terrible year, but they have uncovered three homegrown gems, all playing for close to the league minimum. Xander Bogaerts, Brock Holt and Mookie Betts are all on pace to post All-Star-level production and, in the case of Holt, it's been rewarded with a trip to the Midsummer Classic.
Just when it appeared Boston might be relegated to "playing out the string" by the time the trade deadline arrives, the Red Sox got hot just as Tampa Bay, the team they were 10 games behind in the division about three weeks ago, got cold. As such, there is still hope the Red Sox will continue their quest for the first-ever worst-to-first-to-worst-to-first sequence.
What has gone wrong: Winning an auction, by definition, contains elements of "winner's curse," whereby the winning bidder, absent information unknown to others, almost certainly paid too much. It's extremely unlikely the Red Sox had information on Pablo Sandoval that other teams didn't possess and, further, Sandoval's body of work suggested he'd be a poor fit for Boston. Boston offering Sandoval more money than any other team was as curious as someone in Kansas outbidding everyone else for a boat. Sure enough, Sandoval is having by far his worst season as a professional. While a poor defensive campaign is part of the reason he's among the league's worst performers as measured by WAR, even stripped of defense he'd barely be posting replacement-level production.
Hanley Ramirez's shift to left field has led to defense so bad that a player with an .800 OPS and on pace to hit 35 home runs is sporting a WAR of minus-0.7.
I'm a bit suspicious of those defensive rankings because the Red Sox are solidly below average as a unit, but they're on pace to allow merely 22 more runs over the course of a season than an average defensive unit. Ultimate zone rating (UZR), by contrast, suggests Sandoval and Ramirez have already cost the Red Sox 30 runs, which is possible but not very probable. Nonetheless, defense is a competitive disadvantage for the Red Sox, and it only exacerbates the pitching staff's weaknesses.
Second-half outlook: There is so much high-paid talent playing below-replacement level baseball that it's very easy for Red Sox fans to imagine a scorching month of offense that vaults Boston into first place. That could happen, although I grow more skeptical with each passing series. Even if you back that scenario, though, take a look at the season-to-date pricing above. All season, oddsmakers have treated the Red Sox as if they are the best team in the division. With more and more evidence gathering that that's not the case, there would seem to be only one way to bet things if you're looking for value.